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Comment by janmo | Hacker News Reader

The US is trying to starve China out of advanced semiconductors, not sure this will end well (For Taiwan).

Or anyone, including ourselves, if you look beyond the short term "they can't make fast chips for a few years". Even the elderly folk currently calling these shots will likely still be alive when the consequences materialise

Or maybe I'm overlooking something, I'm no macroeconomic strategist, just someone who was taught in high school that we learned from previous walled economies

>Even the elderly folk currently calling these shots will likely still be alive when the consequences materialise

What are the consequences you speak of? The entire point is "they can't make fast chips for a few years"; we are preparing for confrontation.

Not sure CoCom was a failure during the cold war.

You are not missing anything. Things like these are mainly virtue signaling and the decision makers are indifferent to the consequences for us, is my take.

Are you saying it needs to be more like CoCom to matter?

>Things like these are mainly virtue signaling

No military implications, huh? Just anti-China virtue signaling?

Yes. The military mainly use obsolete equipment when compared to civilian standards because reasons. There is no military angle to this at all other than maybe the hope of making diplomatic relations worse to bring one.

Even if things don’t “end well” for Taiwan, it’s unlikely that China will obtain Taiwan‘s manufacturing abilities. They will rather be destroyed, to ensure that China doesn’t get their hands on them, and then everyone will suffer the consequences.

Taiwan is subject to the same equipment dependencies as China. They don’t make the machines, they import them from the Americans, Dutch, and Germans. If China took over Taiwan, they might be able to obtain Salem great semiconductor engineers (but they could just hire them already on work visas), maybe some plans for the next 2 or 3 years on chips they can’t fab without western equipment, but that’s it. Economically, they would gain just land and any people that survive the invasion.

TW banned their semi engineerings from working in PRC this year. Economically taking over TW short/medium term would basically be placing similar tech sanctions on US/west since TW has some sole source semi inputs for leading edge semi production. Depending on how long it takes western semi to replicate, it evens semi playing field.

Only if TW has also banned their engineers from working in the USA. Also, Taiwan doesn't get great control over where their citizens work...they can't really stop someone from going to the PRC to work (although they can sanction them if they return, dual citizenship with the USA makes even this tricky).

As if the ASML machines were all that is needed for making cutting edge semiconductors. Why TSMC is in Taiwan and not in Denmark then?

|Why TSMC is in Taiwan and not in Denmark then?

Because the Taiwanese government paid for it to be there in the 80's

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC#History

Whoosh :)

I assume you are referring to yourself? It is well know that none of the semiconductor equipment manufacturing is not in Asia due to the PRC. So you get fabs, but not equipment to produce fabs or keep fabs running (all by design, so China doesn't gain much if they take over Korea, Japan, or Taiwan).

How do you think Huawei managed to produce 7nm processors without Western EUV tools lately? Get on with the times instead of living in the past

Don't ask them about their yields if you don't want them to lose face.

Nice moving goal posts around :) BTW what's the yield on Intel's 7nm process? Seems it's 0% LOL

As TSMC did 7nm DUV

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