No, the “war as a distraction thing” is an over repeated trope with little nuance or bearing on reality. War doesn’t distract but puts all eyes on you and losing one (which is always a risk) is a sure fire way to lose any power you were looking to keep via distraction anyway.
Societies go to war when they think they can win and achieve political aims. Any distraction is an excuse to do something they were likely to do anyway.