> The question of avoiding that accidental complexity at the first try is a separate question.

But is that not the more important question? -- how much effort it takes to design software (which surely is the gist of Brooks' observation).

If the final code is much smaller, yet it took as long to design/write, what has been gained? Something, certainly (easier to manipulate, reuse), and furthermore there must be a fairly good relation between size and effort, yet it is the effort to create that is the key matter here.