There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes.
Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US.
And homicides are decreasing.
We’re talking about murders going down by an order of magnitude in many cities and people were still saying crime was increasing.
2) While it's rare, there are some well documented cases where "dead bodies" get hidden in the US by unscrupulous police trying to look better in statistics. Here's Chicago from a decade ago: https://www.chicagomag.com/chicago-magazine/chicago-crime-st...
Also, I don’t think homicides is necessarily that accurate a metric. It’s immune to many things. But it isn’t immune to advances in trauma treatment. I’ve always wondered if cell phones reduced homicides by reducing response times.
I’d love to know shooting victim statistics. But that’s not as complete and comprehensive as homicide counts.
Quoth Jeff Bezos: "The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it."
https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/
What you say is technically true but also highly misleading. You're cherry-picking points to put together a narrative that is not the obvious shape of the data.
Peak homicides over the past 10 years are nowhere near the peak in the 90's.
And they trended downward in 2022, and mid-year 2023 estimates were downwards another 9.4% relative to 2022:
Pretty clearly the inflection is at 2020. It was flat before that, so sure, you can draw a "trend" upwards since the lowest point in 2014 or so, but that's just playing games with curve fitting. I can equally tell you, with the same kind of support, that clearly the trend is downward from 1991 to today. "Just look at the numbers!"
And more importantly, the rapid rise in 2020-21 is dropping rapidly now.
And regardless, the fact that the first derivative is negative clearly makes "crime is going up" a lie. Crime is going DOWN right now, as measured. You need to be more specific: "Crime over the past 9 years is going up" would be true (but again, not if you replace 9 with 2 or 30!).
Also, there are some crimes that haven't been decriminalized and are hard to sweep under the carpet (murder, manslaughter, etc). Are there trends for those crimes?
Edit: The article does say that murder is down in big cities, but there is some weasel text in there about it being down "since the pandemic" which leaves me wondering whether it's up or down since, say, 2017.
Edit 2: This paper seems to be on point, at least in California: https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2023...
Homicides per 100k population hit a low of 1679 in 2019 and bounced up to 2206 in 2022. I don't know the numbers for 2023 yet, but that does suggest the original article is misleading. I would note, though, that this is against a rate of 3530 in 1995.
It’s good though that we’re still down from the bloody heights of the ‘90s era crack/cocaine wars!