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Comment by Flux159 | Hacker News Reader

The issue with this is that we don’t know when the next recession is going to happen.

There could still be a recession in 2024 if the fed doesn’t get their “soft landing” while doing their planned 3 rate cuts.

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The predictions of a 'soft landing' being required have turned out to be false, as the USA economy has shown remarkable strength. Compared to the rest of the world the USA economy is booming, with high GDP growth, high employment and low inflation. And with inflation falling, the Fed now has room to start cutting rates. In an environment of falling interest rates with a strong economy it seems highly unlikely the USA will into fall into recession next year, as that would require something of an economic catastrophe.

Just my non-expert opinion:

I think the economy looks healthy. But underneath it, I think there is a very sizable population that is way worse off than before. This population lost a ton of purchasing power due to inflation. They also don't own homes which means they couldn't take advantage of the 2.5% mortgage rates. Instead, owning home is impossible for them right now. White collar jobs are now harder to come by. Many of these work gig work. So while they're employed and their wages are higher due to inflation, their living standards have collapsed and is in a recession.

What you're describing is a fairly universal phenomena found in many developed economics around the world. Over the last decade or more many countries have seen a hollowing out of their middle class, with stagnant wages growth and rapidly rising house prices. However, I find it hard to believe the majority of the US population are currently experiencing recession like living conditions, only because the latest US quarterly GDP came in at a whopping 5.2% That GDP figure shows the vast majority of the US population has money to spend, and they are happy to spend it.

No recession came when everyone suspected it. A recession will come when everyone isn’t suspecting it.

“Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful.” -Buffett

Its all beautiful until you look at growth in debt level. But lets not scare the kids.

Precisely! Once you do that, you realize that public debt on the US has quadrupled since the financial crisis of 2008.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/

Meaning that much is simply kicking the can a little further.

With interest payments hitting $1tn this year, it is, in my opinion, unrealistic that this is sustainable.

Firstly, while total debt might have quadrupled, in that time the size of the economy has also grown, and that means the debt has become easier to finance. Debt sits at about 130% of GDP, and was about 68% of GDP back in 2008, meaning when measured against the size of the economy it has not yet doubled. Also, by comparison debt to GDP hit 116% in 1946 and managed to return to 31% of GDP in 1974, showing that given the political will, the USA has no trouble paying down its debts.

The US economy had a huge boom from 1946 to 1974, powered by amazing demographics and advances in technology that we don't have today. I don't think political will is what made that possible, just good timing.

High debt with high growth is still much better than high debt with low growth. And Trump record on handling debt issue is no better than Biden. Trump added $USD 7.8 trillion to the debt during his term in office, whereas Biden's has added about $USD 5.4 trillion. Like Trump, a big chunk of Biden's debt was COVID relief.

If the majority of debt was going towards infra, building new factories or improving old ones, reducing cost of housing/health/edu of workers, its all cool. But for a long time now, a mega machine exists that diverts it towards real estate asset inflation, stock market asset inflation, monopoly power consolidation, interest and rent collection, financial sector fees, buying national assets of poorer countries, startup ponzi schemes etc etc. The parasite is fantastic at generating lot of activity. The question for the US has always been how will the parasite be confronted and when.

The debt is mostly the cost of losing wars continously since WW2.

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