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Comment by satellite2 | Hacker News Reader

Yes everyone got that Intel fell off the bandwagon. If they can't follow the next targets someone else will. No need to discourage everyone.

https://youtu.be/7uvUiq_jTLM?si=p8iHyNTcU-MEFp86

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The whole three year thing is exactly what they said a decade ago when they moved from tick/tock to a vague three year cycle.

The problem isn’t Moore’s law. It’s that Intel isn’t keeping pace with the competition and it’s finally gotten so bad that it’s starting to erode x86’s entrenched position.

Intel is a dead company walking unless they turn the ship around fast.

So which companies manage to fulfill Moore's law?

I think the doubling costs are pushing toward 1 fab a generation and TSMC is 1 year ahead.. The model I would make is that TSMC has maybe 4 more generations as Samsung and Intel lose and they run a new fab that serves all demand for each generation. Then they will also cease to compete with their past fab without delaying significantly to reign in costs.

No, this was not the question. OP has said that Moore's law still applies and “oh, it's only Intel who's unable to keep up”.

Does TSMC double the amount of transistors every two years on average?

They do. By the video by 2022 Moore's law target is at 90 billions transistors per chip. The Nvidia H100 is at 80 billions.

TSMC and Samsung have also slowed down. Nobody can release a full node in two years.

Moore's law doesn't specify how often fabs should upgrade. Just that when they do what's the target transistor count.

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