I doubt we can model it in a way that is useful.
We have many examples of us both adapting and failing to adapt, and can therefore say things like "adapts X% of the time", except in those cases the solution has often been "move elsewhere and/or fight other people" which I think isn't useful because it doesn't work so well on a planetary scale unless and until interplanetary travel is as easy as the Mayflower/Plymouth Rock journey.
Might still be useful for general governance just by characterising dangerous parts of the phase space[0] where dragons be so they can be avoided.
[0] how does phase space differ from latent space anyway?