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Last I looked expert consensus on factoring RSA-2048 was about 15-20 years out but with a wide divergence of opinion. You might find a less optimistic take today,

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I was under the impression the 20 year prediction was for classical methods not quantum

I can't speak to classical methods but, yes, that was the quantum prediction in report a couple years back.

An expert consensus is an interesting social phenomena that should be definitely investigated by anthropologists of science.

It tells us nothing about reality.

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