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Comment by toomuchtodo | Hacker News Reader

Not at all, Tesla has enough cash on hand to pay everyone out a few billion if there was a judgement wrt FSD. They outran the liability with the brand and sales.

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The comment you're replying to is not talking about court-enforced liabilities. If the pull out of FSD they're basically Mercedes with a 5 year lead on manufacturing. That is categorically not a trillion dollar company and the house of cards leveraged against Tesla stock crumbles.

I don't understand what you mean. Mercedes-Benz is currently ahead of Tesla on autonomous driving. They have a working SAE Level 3 system already. It is currently very limited but will expand over time.

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a45326503/mercedes-benz...

    DRIVE PILOT is ready to chauffeur you under conditions that help ensure a secure ride.  Conditions include:
    Clear lane markings on approved freeways
    Moderate to heavy traffic with speeds under 40 MPH
    Daytime lighting and clear weather
    Driver visible by camera located above driver's display
    There is no construction zone present.

and from the manual:

    The distance [to the vehicle in front] is neither too small nor too large

How is this remotely comparable to FSD? Drive Pilot is less technologically ambitious than the 1995 CMU No Hands Across America vehicle, which happened 28 years ago. Polishing it enough to accept liability is cool, but there is no technology path from follow-the-leader to general purpose self-driving.

Mercedes Drive Pilot is aimed at a different use case than Tesla FSD so it's difficult to make a direct comparison, but independent reviews generally indicate the Mercedes system is superior. Tesla doesn't have a viable technology path to general purpose SAE Level 4+ autonomous driving either, so I don't see any difference there.

https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a39481699/what-happens-if-...

lol

5 year lead on manufacturing vs Mercedes? Are panel gaps and technicians swapping USDM headlights to EUDM on cargo ships transporting their cars to Europe a 5 year lead now?

They’re definitely ahead in EV process. I don’t like them or Musk, but that’s undeniable. Whether that leads to a better finish is debatable.

You realize you can take this confidence and bet against TSLA right?

If you're right it'll be a relatively great payday for you.

Gamestop proved to me that the market can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent.

Many are shorting Tesla and continue to lose money because of the markets idiocy. If I were a billionaire I would short it, but as it stands I cannot risk losing money just because of stupid prolonged hype.

Have you ever been wrong about something or was it always attributed to someone else's idiocy?

I'm not betting against anything, my money is going to real estate me and my family will live in, not WSB gambles. Also, betting against hordes or Tesla fanboys does not seem rational at all, doesn't mean the product is any good or has a bright future still.

Nah, there is still enough collective delusion in the brand to keep the stock somewhat propped up vs legacy auto’s slow death. BYD and Tesla are crushing it comparatively and have the supply chain to keep ramping. No one else is selling meaningful volume at this time. Mercedes is certainly not the future in any meaningful way.

Stock would take a nose-dive.

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