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Comment by zczc | Hacker News Reader

As far as i understand, the main goal of the Israel operation is to remove Hamas capability to launch another Oct.7-style attack in the future: prevention, not retaliation (though one can argue if there is a way to achieve this goal with less cost on civilians).

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> one can argue if there is a way to achieve this goal with less cost on civilians)

Not really, no. There's no argument.

The entire world is calling for a ceasefire because so many civilians are being murdered.

The IDF listening to its own intelligence assessments alone would’ve prevented Hamas from launching that attack. Hence what they are doing is mass retaliation against the entire population of Gaza, not to mention the killings in the West Bank and the suppression of domestic dissent against the war.

If I tell you someone will break into your house sometime in the future...maybe tomorrow, maybe 5 years from now, and actually maybe never...how would you change your behavior?

There was some intelligence about a potential threat, but hardly anything specific that they could easily respond to. Coupled with the fact that Hamas has their own counterintelligence laying out deceptions in the months leading up to the attack.

I guess Israel could have just stationed a few battalions over the full length of the border....forever.

Israel absolutely had incredibly specific intel [1] of the attack plans a year in advance of the attack, yet chose to do nothing out of arrogance

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-h...

(alternate account for oh_sigh here, apparently posting 3 times 90 minutes ago means I can't post anymore today)

Yes, they had intel about the attack method, but not the dates, or even if it was real or aspirational.

This goes to my question about the person break into your home... What changes or adjustments could Israel have taken based on the intel? Like I said, maybe they could just place a bunch of battalions along the entire border, but then maybe Hamas would just lay low until they were gone.

For all we know they allowed it to happen so they'd have an excuse to retaliate. See also: basically every 9/11 conspiracy theory.

For all we know you're a lizard person trying to push humanity into a nuclear Holocaust so the lizard people can take earth over.

The current approach will not achieve this goal. Overwhelming force doesn't stop insurrections unless it goes all the way to genocide or ethnic cleansing. That's what makes the argument especially pointless.

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