"It’s great to build a complex model and load it with empirical data like polls, economic reports and presidential approval ratings. But if the output of that model is implausible, it’s time to go back to the drawing board.

As a financial analyst at an investment bank, or a research analyst at an economic consulting firm, your job would be in serious jeopardy if you produced 538’s model output without a clear explanation of how those fat tails that represent an inordinate number of close to impossible scenarios could actually occur. A model like that just isn’t client-ready. Time to re-think those assumptions!"