Tell me why I'm wrong...

The federal interest rate applies to loans, so the main first order effect for consumers is via mortgage rates and car loans. However, home sales are low because prices have been sticky despite the higher interest rates, leading to far fewer sales as people can't afford the higher mortgage costs. Meanwhile, people who already own houses are completely insulated from mortgage rate changes.

So, consumer spending is relatively insulated from first order effects of the federal interest rate, especially for existing homeowners.