I watched some analysis a while ago that stared that the war broke out to prevent Ukraine from tapping into some natural gas reserves that were uncovered at that time. Those reserves are located near Crimea. Sounds more plausible than pure ego.
Most experts see the reasoning as Putin wants a sphere of influence, and since no one is volunteering besides Belarus, he decided to do it by force. It's more Make Russia Great Again (like the times of czars, not soviet union)
For that extremely obvious reason Russia would never allow NATO to control that region of Ukraine.
The grain and industry in UKR is also a plus, but a lot of wars have been fought over Crimea, and for good reason.
The most plausible reason for the war is still the publicly stated reason: preventing NATO expansion to Ukraine.
Both sides know that to be the truth. NATO would never start a war, the rules prevent article 5 from being usable should a member decide to start one on their own
edit, I see parent edited their "NATO threat" comment to be "prevent NATO expansion", the JM thesis is utterly wrong, these countries are choosing to be part of a defense alliance, it is not forced on them
The threat Ukraine poses to Russian leaders is a demonstration that a better life is possible without an authoritarian at the helm
> publicly stated reason
Putin wrote an essay in July 2021. That is the foundation, and most plausible publicly stated reason, to understand why they decided to invade
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Rus...