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Comment by verdverm | Hacker News Reader

Maduro (Venezuela) sees what Putin is doing, and how the West is maybe half supporting Ukraine, and sees an opportunity to do the same to their neighbor (Guyana), expecting the West will probably do nothing. It's remarkably similar in "justification" because "we want this land we owned 100s of years ago back, forget about the prior agreements and the borders that have long been in place.

tl;dr it's really about the oil, which does make it different from Putin trying to feel like a big man

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Ukraine was to a degree also about oil/gas and cutting off a rising competitor with their new capabilities gearing up.

eh kinda.

Euromaidan happened because UKR voted in a Pro-EU, relatively anti-corruption (by UKR standards) candidate. Russia never invaded before because they basically called the shots via corruption and the mafiya.

When it looked like he wasn't going to die from poison or riots and would stick around, "separatists" launched an effort to take the eastern part of the country, with a lot of industry, as well as Crimea -- a highly desired port for the Russian fleet.

That kicked off a whole mess of EU and NATO assistance to UKR, so the recent war was to gobble up the rest of the country before it got too strong to resist. Turns out they took too long -- they probably would have won handedly in 2016, but in 2022 the AFU had been training and re-equipping, and realized what was at stake.

I perceive that part of the reason the west doesn't wade into the conflict in Ukraine (rightly or wrongly) is that there is a fear of the conflict escalating into a brawl between western nations and Russia (which is probably at least a near-peer to western militaries and nuclear armed). Venezuela is neither a near-peer military power nor nuclear armed as far as I understand, and their ability to hit back (again rightly or wrongly) against other regional powers, the US or whatever other western nations that might intervene (maybe Britain or France?) seems very limited, and thus Maduro's tactical and strategic position seems really different than Putin's.

Sure, but with the situation in Ukraine rapidly deteriorating and likely heading into a push for a ceasefire - if not officially, then at least effectively over the winter - it would make for another ideal proxy war location in the “war of pawns”.

Both Russia and the US would greatly prefer to keep this at a Kabinettskriege level instead of escalating to full blown Volkskriege WW3.

I watched some analysis a while ago that stared that the war broke out to prevent Ukraine from tapping into some natural gas reserves that were uncovered at that time. Those reserves are located near Crimea. Sounds more plausible than pure ego.

That gas field isnt going to pay for even a small fraction of the cost of the war. It doesnt make any sense as a cause.

The most plausible reason for the war is still the publicly stated reason: preventing NATO expansion to Ukraine.

NATO is not a threat, just an excuse

Both sides know that to be the truth. NATO would never start a war, the rules prevent article 5 from being usable should a member decide to start one on their own

edit, I see parent edited their "NATO threat" comment to be "prevent NATO expansion", the JM thesis is utterly wrong, these countries are choosing to be part of a defense alliance, it is not forced on them

The threat Ukraine poses to Russian leaders is a demonstration that a better life is possible without an authoritarian at the helm

> publicly stated reason

Putin wrote an essay in July 2021. That is the foundation, and most plausible publicly stated reason, to understand why they decided to invade

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Rus...

It would have, though, if Putin's "conquered in three weeks" had panned out.

Russia has plenty of oil & gas in their existing territory. If anything, Putin wants to prevent Ukraine from becoming the supplier to Europe

Most experts see the reasoning as Putin wants a sphere of influence, and since no one is volunteering besides Belarus, he decided to do it by force. It's more Make Russia Great Again (like the times of czars, not soviet union)

Preventing Ukraine from becoming a supplier still fits the parent comment.

Except for the last sentence

This one: "Sounds more plausible than pure ego"? We seem to believe ego well enough (we certainly succumb to it), so if that's what you refer to, I do take your point.

Russia would never risk losing access to the Black Sea, as it’s the only year-round military port they have.

For that extremely obvious reason Russia would never allow NATO to control that region of Ukraine.

This is the answer -- they want the port.

The grain and industry in UKR is also a plus, but a lot of wars have been fought over Crimea, and for good reason.

It's like a manufactured claim in Europa Universalis

> Maduro (Venezuela) sees what Putin is doing, and how the West is maybe half supporting Ukraine, and sees an opportunity to do the same to their neighbor

I'm sorry, I'm completely lost on what exactly you think about the Russian adventure in Ukraine is worth emulating. It's been a disaster for Russia. Ukraine too, obviously, but no way would Putin do this again if he knew a two-year stalemate and global shaming of his vaunted army was going to be the result.

He is still occupying large parts of Ukraine that may become Russian permanently if Ukraine doesn't manage to take them back. That may be the most important thing for him.

oh, I don't think they should try to emulate, just that there is an amount of similarity in the self-justification of the dictators. China's claims to Taiwan fit the same mold

The mistake putin made can be easily summarized up in the following phrase: two weeks to stop the spread.

Turns out, war ain’t easy. Not against people, not against viruses.

After all, look at how well Afghanistan turned out for the USA.

There are more interesting ideas when you compare "winning the war" vs "winning the peace"

For the US context, you can look at WtW in Iraq, Afghanistan vs WtP in Germany, Korea, Vietnam

Ukraine needs to win the peace more than they need to win the war. There will most likely mean they need to make concessions and join the EU & NATO

Or Putin asked him to do it to further reduce aid for Ukarine from US. Basically - opening another front.

> which does make it different from Putin trying to feel like a big man

This simplification ignores alot of contextual history of the region. Regardless, even with Putin out of the picture, I suspect the situation would be the same. If the USSR invaded Mexico, I suspect the US would be rolling tanks in real fast. This is just an extension of Cold War posturing, like during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

If that's his strategy then Maduro's even dumber than I thought. Putin's got nukes. What the hell do these south american communists have?

It's hilarious. These communists are actually delusional. They actually think they can create some kind of south american soviet union here. All they've managed to do so far is throw our economies into the gutter. And now brazilian president Lula is "moving troops" and generally making moves that get us all further into this mess instead of away from it just because it's his communist friend Maduro's ass on the line? It's unreal. Imagine actually dying for this bullshit.

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