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Believe it or not, real GDP. Straight from the BLS.

"Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent."

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I believe it, but only because I've also watched the adjustments to CPI methodologies.

What I can't believe is that serious people still take the BLS's CPI number seriously.

I'm pretty sure the average Joe would agree with you about the CPI numbers being a complete farce. It used to not matter when it was low. But after covid, when people, largely following the same habits over time, see their grocery receipts go up 15% yet the government quotes 7%, they're not going to forget that for a long time.

It's just innumeracy. Grocery prices are up 26% since 2019. The government isn't lying when it says 7% annually.

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