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Comment by r00fus | Hacker News Reader

Rivian is shipping. Infinitely better than something that's not.

CT, if it ever ships in volume, will be an important failure to rein in Musk's fantastical thinking (or his interest in Tesla).

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"Rivian is shipping. Infinitely better than something that's not."

Even if they're losing $33k per vehicle? (See 2Q23 shareholder letter). Note this does not include R&D, CAPEX or SG&A. Was it infinitely better for WeWork to ship something than not?

"will be an important failure to rein in Musk's fantastical thinking" Why would it fail when there are >2m pre-orders and a a 5 year waitlist?

Those pre-orders are based on fictional pricing and fictional delivery date. I don't doubt that they'll sell all 180k cybertrucks they expect to make in the next 18 months (novelty factor goes a long way with people who have gobs of discretionary income), but I'd be willing to bet a lot of the "2 million" preorders are people who, like me, simply haven't canceled theirs yet but will when it's time to shell out whatever crazy price is announced for a truck that doesn't meet the promised specs.

So Rivian aims to produce 50k vehicles this year and that includes the delivery vans. AND they lose $33k per vehicle.

Even if Tesla 'only' delivers 180k cybertrucks in 18 months, and at a profit, they will still be far in the lead in the EV truck race.

To characterize the Cybertruck as some kind of failure or folly is not congruent with the facts.

Honestly you sound just like the Tesla doubters 5-10 years ago.

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