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Comment by richthekid | Hacker News Reader

This is gonna change everything

It's really not.

Don't get me wrong, this is insanely cool, but it's still a long way from good enough to be truly disruptive.

In a few years' time, teenagers will be consuming shows and films made by their peers, not by streaming providers. They'll forgive and perhaps even appreciate the technical imperfections for the sake of uncensored, original content that fits perfectly with their cultural identity.

Actually, when processing power catches up, I'm expecting a movie engine with well-defined characters, scenes, entities, etc., so people will be able to share mostly text-based scenarios to watch on their hardware players.

Similar to how all the kids today only play itch.io games thanks to Unity and Unreal dramatically lowering the bar of entry into game development.

Oh wait... No.

All it has done is create an environment where indy games are now assumed to be trash unless proven otherwise, making getting traction as a small developer orders of magnitude harder than it has ever been because their efforts are drowning in a sea of mediocrity.

That same thing is already starting to happen on youtube with AI content, and there's no reason for me to expect this going any other way.

It took ~2 years for my 10 year old daughter to get bored and give up the shitty user made roblox games and start playing on switch, steam or ps4.

They do that now (forget the name there's a popular one my niece uses to make animated comics, others do similar things in Minecraft etc), and have been doing that since forever - nearly 30 years ago my friends and I were scribbling comic panels into our notebooks and sharing them around class.

ms comic chat for the win

One year.

All of Hollywood falls.

Every time something like this is released someone comments how it’s going to blow up legacy studios. The only way you can possibly think that is that: 1-the studios themselves will somehow be prevented from using this tech themselves, and 2-that somehow customers will suddenly become amenable to low grade garbage movies. Hollywood already produces thousands of low grade B or C movies every year that cost fractions of what it costs to make a blockbuster. Those movies make almost nothing at the box office.

If anything, a deluge of cheap AI generated movies is going to lead to a flight to quality. The big studios will be more powerful because they will reap the productivity gains and use traditional techniques to smooth out the rough edges.

> 2-that somehow customers will suddenly become amenable to low grade garbage movies

People have been amenable to low grade garbage movies for a long, long time. See Adam Sandler's back catalog.

No offense, but this is absolutely delusional.

As long as people can "clock" content generated from these models, it will be treated by consumers as low-effort drivel, no matter how much actual artistic effort goes in the exercise. Only once these systems push through the threshold of being indistinguishable from artistry will all hell break loose, and we are still very far from that.

Paint-by-numbers low-effort market-driven stuff will take a hit for sure, but that's only a portion of the market, and frankly not one I'm going to be missing.

Very far, yes, but also in a fast moving field.

CGI in films used to be obvious all the time no matter how good the artists using it, now it's everywhere and only noticeable when that's the point; the gap from Tron to Fellowship of the Ring was 19.5 years.

My guess is the analogy here puts the quality of existing genAI somewhere near the equivalent of early TV CGI, given its use in one of the Marvel title sequences etc., but it is just an analogy and there's no guarantees of anything either way.

something unrelated improved overtime so something else unrelated will also improve to whatever goal you've set in your mind

weird logic circles yall keep making to justify your beliefs, i mean the world is very easy like you just described if you completely strip all nuance and complexity

people used to believe at the start of the space race we'd have mars colonies by now because they looked at the rate of technological advancement from 1910 to 1970, from the first flight to landing on the moon; yet that didn't happen because everything doesn't follow the same repeatable patterns

First, lotta artists already upset with genAI and the impact it has.

Second, I literally wrote the same point you seem to think is a gotcha:

> it is just an analogy and there's no guarantees of anything either way

People also believed that recorded music would destroy the player piano industry and the market for piano rolls. Just because recorded music is cheaper doesn't mean that the audience will be willing to give up the actual sound of a piano being played.

Is it? How so?

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