When renewables are in excess, the spot (instantaneous) energy price will drop to near zero (or sometimes negative in weird situations). That is good for existing (short term) batteries (they can recharge cheaply), but it will also provide price signals to people considering investing in longer term storage (since their cost of energy could be near zero, they only have to recoup the costs of building and operating the storage).
Yes, and that means generation will become unprofitable.
We seem to be a decade or so away from the point where the investment on generation can't be decided by direct ROI. And nobody is preparing for this. Governments need a long time to regulate that kind of thing... so we can expect some problems on the near future.
For that time period. At the same time, using energy becomes supremely profitable. This isn’t a weird quirk of the power markets; compute time is also instantaneous. It’s just less noticeable because we haven’t unified a market for it. These are amply solvable problems.
For the time period that the most common generators generate the most energy. By itself, that guarantees that there won't be enough investment to create excess renewables. Or at least that markets won't make that investment.
If you want excess renewables (and they are a safety and security necessity), you need to fund it by something that isn't interested on direct ROI.
Sure, agreed. I don’t think this is something we should necessarily want. But if it is, it would require subsidy.
If cost of storage and operation is lower than battery operators can sell it for, then eventually the cost producers will sell at will increase. It will be interesting to watch
My understanding is that this can be true in some regions but requires fairly aggressive use of, not only overbuilt renewables (which may pose challenges in land use and siting), but also long haul transmission (also difficult to site), demand response, etc. And then there's the scary possibility of an extended weather anomaly (several weeks with no wind and minimal solar).
Having some long term storage in the mix, probably in the form of green hydrogen or another e-fuel, greatly increases our options for building a robust fossil-free grid.
Putting more clean firm sources such as nuclear or advanced geothermal in the mix also helps, but I am not optimistic regarding nuclear, and advanced geothermal is still pretty immature.
https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/delivering-a-reliable-...
> Governments plan to double renewable capacity by 2030, and tripling is within sight, according to a newly released report.
> Many countries are already on track to exceed their national targets, and more ambition is achievable to bring a tripling of global renewables within reach, according to an analysis of national targets by energy think tank Ember.
> The report analyzes renewables targets for 57 countries, plus the EU, that collectively represent 90% of global power sector emissions. According to these targets, global renewable capacity will reach an estimated 7.3 terawatts (TW) in 2030, more than doubling from 3.4 TW in 2022. More than 75% of renewable capacity in 2030, where stated, will be from solar and wind.
> However, the current renewables boom is already outpacing governments’ planned growth. The world could achieve a doubling just by continuing the deployment achieved in 2023 throughout the rest of the decade – yet all signs point to a more rapid growth curve.
> If the countries analyzed by Ember continue the growth rate of 17% achieved since 2016 throughout the rest of this decade, it would put the world on track for a tripling of renewables.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/13/chinas-carb...
> The most striking growth has been in solar power, according to Myllyvirta. Solar installations increased by 210 gigawatts (GW) this year alone, which is twice the total solar capacity of the US and four times what China added in 2020.
> The analysis, which is based on official figures and commercial data, found that China installed 70GW of wind power this year – more than the entire power generation capacity of the UK. It is also expected to add 7GW of hydro power and 3GW of nuclear power capacity this year, said the report.