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Comment by skilled | Hacker News Reader

I have a strange feeling that all of this is about selling OpenAI to Microsoft. I mean is it that unlikely? Everything is pointing in that direction, and maybe there was a loophole that allowed this to happen in a way that doesn't make it seem like Microsoft were the ones doing the push.

We have to be honest with ourselves and realize that these are billion/trillion dollar companies we're talking about here, with some of the "smartest" people at the helm. I totally see how an acquisition could be swiped through the means of saying that these people were inexperienced.

Disclaimer: I'm totally talking out of my butt here, as we all are.

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I feel there's merit to that idea. Basically, in the current regulatory environment in the US under Lina Khan, an outright acquisition by Microsoft would have been met with significant resistance. Especially since AI has just been declared a national risk that needs regulating and Microsoft just bought Activision in what's pretty much the largest deal of 2023.

So, instead of buying OpenAI outright with all its complicated org structure, paying 13 billion for 49%, acquiring the rights to OpenAI's models and code and then insinuating today's events with a majority of OpenAI's staff leaving for Microsoft would be a really elegant and cunning way to do this.

If it is, it might be the most daring bit of business maneuvering we've seen in a decade. But, given Occam's razor, it might just as well be a colossal fuckup. Time will tell.

You might be thinking of Hanlon’s razor, but I suppose both might give the same answer.

You're right - wrong razor :-D

Damn. Blood all over the bathroom basin; patches of tissue dotted around my chin.

> I have a strange feeling that all of this is about selling OpenAI to Microsoft. I mean is it that unlikely?

From the moment that the announcement of the deal with Microsoft happened, it was clear to me that it only ends one way: Microsoft is going to own everything of value that OpenAI has, in one way or another.

There never was any other way it could go down regardless of what ideals the OpenAI founders may or may not have had. You can't dance with the devil and say you're only kidding.

I had the same feeling. Huge corp with deep pockets targets smaller research company in order to catch up with the competition. I'm surprised a traditional acquisition hadn't happened before. Now it's happening in a weird way but it's the same outcome.

Anthropic is probably next.

Do not ascribe to malice what can be sufficiently explained by incompetence.

“Do not only ..”, or “Do not immediately ..” are reasonable and wise.

But that absolutist “Do not” is neither wise nor reasonable. Malicious actors do exist.

Do not ascribe incompetence to anyone in a position of power, because incompetence at scale is indistinguishable from malice.

That's about outcomes. But intent matters and I don't think Ilya had the intent of blowing up OpenAI though how he could not see that coming is something that I fail to understand. You don't pull a palace revolution like that without a plan on what you will do if it succeeds.

Hanlon's Razor is for idiots, even mischievous toddlers intuitively figure out the "oops" excuse.

I think it’s a mistake to confuse either of them for greed.

Greed is a form of malice, in my opinion.

It seems the load on HN has caused a duplicate submission, please ignore this comment (I can't delete it).

The best trick the devil ever played...

If it was about selling to Microsoft, Ilya and the board could've just announced that's the reason. The thing is they didn't, and Emmett didn't say what it was even after being briefed before joining. I don't think as many as 500+ employees out of 700+ would be siding with Sam if Ilya announced this was about OpenAI v. Microsoft. So why did he never explain anything to the staff?

It's an amusing conspiracy theory, but if we believe these are super smart people behaving in a clever way to exploit a loophole... why would they make themselves look like such idiots doing so? I don't think looking like an idiot helps any possible legal defense; if you have a rock solid loophole, just use it and surprise people with your cunning, not your idiocy.

Why choose 'conspiracy theory' in lieu of 'theory'?

Paris Hilton is a genius. Donald J Trump is a genius. Alex Jones tried it and so did Sam Bankman-Fried. Those two were not genius.

> that all of this is about selling OpenAI to Microsoft

By whom? Unless everyone is corrupt and getting kickback from MS it doesn't make sense. Board made first move (public), if they wanted to sell to MS they could have just taken 20 billion dollars by selling 30% stake, giving equity to employees and Sam and using the money for its alignment research. For Sam and MS to have colluded, he should have hoodwinked board into making the move which may be possible but far fetched.

I've heard the conspiracy theory that this is a means for Sam Altman to leave the company and bring everyone under MS for free.

Sell what to MS, now?

They have the license to the tech, now they have the tech leadership, soon perhaps the entire 500-person team ... for free

I suspect it’s a basic corporate pillaging of a nonprofit that accidentally created something of gigantic value. MS wanted the company, but Quora has its own interest and stood in the way. Now MS will get part of the employees and Quora will get the leftovers. Quora has been trying to IPO for a while so AI magic dust may be just what they need for an exit.

All the AI safety stuff was a fig leaf for pure corporate machinations.

People like conspiracy theories because it simplifies the world, aligns things into easy to understand Big Bad actions that they can understand. But conspiracies don't work because the world isn't that predictable.

The real world is messier. When you zoom in, people have emotions, misunderstandings, different values. Noone can predict how it all plays out.

It’s not a conspiracy theory, just economic incentives of MS CEO, Quora CEO, and every employee who would rather get rich than work at a nonprofit. The nonprofit structure was in no one’s interest except for a very small cohort of AI Doomers and anti-corporate folks, who I assume would not want to work for Microsoft and probably number less than 100 out of 700. It turned out that the people dedicated to the Nonprofit’s mission had very little power since they relied wholly on MS for funding and compute.

says ">But conspiracies don't work because the world isn't that predictable.<"

Agreed but that doesn't prevent people from trying to instigate conspiracies. After all, Prometheus caused blind hopes to live in the hearts of men.

- Aeschylus, Prometheus Bound

http://classics.mit.edu/Aeschylus/prometheus.html

An extract seems appropriate here:

-------------------------------

PROMETHEUS: I took from man expectancy of death.

CHORUS: What medicine found'st thou for this malady?

PROMETHEUS: I planted blind hope in the heart of him.

CHORUS: A mighty boon thou gavest there to man.

PROMETHEUS: Moreover, I conferred the gift of fire.

CHORUS: And have frail mortals now the flame-bright fire?

PROMETHEUS: Yea, and shall master many arts thereby.

CHORUS: And Zeus with such misfeasance charging thee-

PROMETHEUS: Torments me with extremity of woe.

...

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