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Comment by chrisfosterelli | Hacker News Reader

At this point I refuse to start any Netflix show that is not already finished. I understand that Netflix is a highly data driven org but this reliance on metric driven cancellation -- regardless of where the show is at narratively -- is part of what is alienating their userbase. That doesn't show in the data until it's too late and the trust is gone.

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Following the Google path. "Data shows that this product isn't meeting usage expectations, time to kill it." Except in the process they don't realize that their actions (cutting products/shows) is training people not to invest in subsequent products in the first place for fear they'll disappear one day. They're basically tainting all of their future data collection. If Products A and B (or shows in Netflix's case) were ones I heavily used then were unceremoniously canned, I'm not going to want to try Product C, regardless of how good it is.

This is why I've started watching a lot of Asian entertainment. Kdramas and cdramas are nice in that they generally are planned to last for 1 season and one season only. it's nice to go into a show knowing you'll definitely get a resolution.

Sounds like you just like movies, but longer.

The defining feature of a movie is its length, so no. Movies are narratives condensed into a time frame sized to match the audiences bladders. Its why adaptions of novels are difficult. Short stories are a better fit. A good adaption of a novel length narrative seems to take 6-20 hours of screen time. Holding a coherent story together for a novel or trilogy is difficult, and how we end up with soap operas which twine different stories together into a never ending rope.

It's an art to do this well. When making a movie, every second counts. You have to make compromises. Some people flat out refuse to accept that movies drop a lot of details from the book, but I appreciate both. It is my clipboard understanding many people in the US dislike Forrest Gump as it's been shoved into their faces by media over and over again, but even after reading the book I still think it's just a really good movie.

I think I might actually like televised books. I also love cbs or USA type procedurals. Shows like psych or bones or person of interest where you really got to know the characters over 24 episodes and those characters lived in a real fictional world and you knew that the next season was only a year away.

I haven't really been able to enjoy the netflix 8 episode model. Feels like you get 8 episodes of people on plot rails every 2-3 years and half of them get cancelled on a cliffhanger.

And to your point, showrunner Mike Flanagan does a similar thing, limited 1 season series like House of Usher and Midnight Mass.

We did the same. But there are so many trash in that genre though, we dropped more than a few

I think the fundamental problem is that Netflix has too many show, and follows the "see what sticks" philosophy.

I think they should be more like (formerly?) HBO or Apple and try to make fewer, better shows.

I thought there was a missed opportunity for Amazon to assert a distinct identity, of acquiring shows and letting them finish out their arcs (The Expanse) and make a credible commitment to either giving shows a "soft axe" (a notice that they get one final season) or a compromise like a send-off movie.

I don't know that they necessarily think this way, but it could have been a distinction they could have gone for. Like you feel better about having The Expanse, or for that matter any other show, in the hands of Amazon than Netflix.

Yeah that would be an interesting niche, but there are only so many opportunities to pick or good shows or novels, and they picked up a lot already.

That would be an interesting production skill for an org to build out. I don't think anyone is really good at it and wind-down seasons are all over the place. Freed from the need to fit into the season templates you could also wind shows down with partial seasons or even an audiobook.

2 fun examples of coping with winding down are HBO's Rome, that "telescoped the third and fourth season into the second one" (https://www.reuters.com/article/televisionNews/idUSTRE4B00VV...) and Blacklist's final episode before the pandemic shutdown that filled the gaps with animated storyboards: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0nF4njky94

I hadn't even thought of an audiobook. But, to your point with HBO, they have dabbled in creating companion podcasts, and did a wind-down with Rome, so a companion podcast could at least be something.

There's the opposite phenomenon where, for instance, Legend of Korra was ordered as a miniseries then extended to a full show, resulting in some trouble in season 2's production.

Futurama might be the best at handling cancellations now, lol.

Agreed, I either wait until a show is complete and get a recommendation from a friend to binge the whole thing or just check one of the Disney+ "safe bet" brands.

At least you know somebody has put a marginal amount of thought and effort into how the latest Star Wars or Marvel shows fits into things. It might tell a little story from start to finish or slot into the larger narrative, doesn't really matter, it will usually be "complete" in the sense that it told the story it wanted to tell.

Which I mean, I'm aware it's not breaking any barriers and I would definitely prefer to watch another "Dark" instead but I actually find it exhausting to get invested in a show and have it just be dropped without a satisfying ending.

>That doesn't show in the data until it's too late and the trust is gone.

Yes, this seems to be a problem at this point that stretches across many entire sectors at this point. I know there have been plenty of observations over the years around the dangers of hyper optimizing towards measurables while completely discounting immeasurables yet it seems to be a hard thing still to avoid long term. And in cases like this, or Google say for an even bigger example [0], it can also easily turn into a real doom loop. Initial engagement with services/platforms always entails risk on BOTH sides of the equation. Yeah the business is taking a risk that it won't sell, but the users investing their limited time/resources are taking a risk on its long term support too. Part of bootstrapping is always the business being willing to eat some of that and develop are reputation around doing so, such that people can jump onto v1.0 even if it has flaws and feeling trust that it will have a solid run. Which in turn gives the business the ability to iterate and refine and figure out what it truly is, and then there's a positive loop.

But when businesses forget that and start expecting hits day 1, it can all go into reverse. If everyone expects inevitably to have the rug pulled out from under them, then they won't invest in the first place even if it's promising (short of a monopoly situation where there is literally no choice). Which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, not enough "engagement", product gets killed, those % of those burned swear off doing it again and tell others too, and next time it goes even faster. I suspect an exclusive situation in some ways could make it even riskier long term by blunting signal: people feel locked into continuing to buy which looks good on numbers, but immeasurably anger is building up. Which means as soon as something else comes along "all of a sudden" people will bolt for it.

I don't know, seems to be a sort of midlife crisis thing that is particularly true of very successful firms that have only ever known major success. They somehow lose the institutional DNA of how they built their customer base in the first place, and then just cannot seem to manage to recover it until it's too late.

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0: https://killedbygoogle.com/

I wish they made one season only shows. Would solve their problem and ours. It's really rare that a show over the second season maintain the same quality (there are exceptions)

This is not at all a new phenomenon. Broadcast networks and cable channels have been doing this for decades.

I’m still sad that the society won’t get another season

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