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Note that the goal of ASI isn't to beat you per se, but the best humans.

GPT-4 is generally not competitive with domain specialists (outside areas where machines have already been competitive for some time). That of course doesn't mean it isn't valuable - but it becomes more for human augmentation than replacement.

This might be the case now but shouldn’t be a particularly useful distinction for very long— on the grand scale of intelligence, the difference between the smartest human and the average human is tiny.

I'm not talking about intelligence but expertise.

GPT-4 is a lot better than me at unfamiliar tasks, because it has the advantage of being able to readily transform all data on the internet.

Once I have trained myself, I generally can beat GPT-4.

Yes, right now, until it gets a bit better and learns and integrates the expertise for that and every other field.

I don't see it as a dialectic. I see it as a continuum.

There is value to replacing a percentage of human labor with machine labor.

Jordan Peterson said there are no jobs in the USA for people with IQs below 87: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RN3w_F9r-aI&t=338s

Mr. Peterson says lower IQ people are do better at more repetitive jobs.

Machines and AI can do more repetitive jobs. Technology took those jobs.

As AI advances, the lowest useful IQ will move up. I wonder where it will be in 10 years.

Maybe they will invent treatments for IQ below 90 so that our ability can move up along with technology.

I had hopes that we would be modifying them genetically to help everone have productive places in our society. Instead, we seem determined to live out the movie Idiocracy while simultaneously living out Bridge on the River Kwai.

The rate in AI IQ gain is not limited by ethics and clinical trials.

ASI stands for Artificial Superintelligence.

> ASI stands for Artificial Superintelligence.

>> Note that the goal of ASI isn't to beat you per se, but the best humans.

I'm pretty sure they understand that.

Before ASI can beat the best humans, it is going to wipe the floor with me. Maybe I'm selfish, but it's the time when my boss decides my worth that I'm concentrating on.

These are not "ways" of achieving superhuman intelligence, these are potential forms of superhuman performance.

It's also a very broad definition, because by that definition we have had superhuman performance in computation for decades. And we've been able to write programs for very narrow tasks that outperform humans for that time as well.

Generally when people are comparing artificial intelligence against human intelligence, they want an AGI. Humans aren't good at just one narrow thing, that's why they aren't all replaced by specialized programs already. We are taking about being able to describe a problem and the artificial intelligence can take it from there. That's why the bar is AGI, which is a much higher bar than any of your broad definitions.

Though I think we should take note that the write programs for very narrow tasks that outperform humans may start seeing widening.

Things like object recognition have moved from "only humans can do this" to machines are keeping up with us. And I think that this is how it will be for at least some time. Instead of one big blast where ASI is better than humans at everything, more and more categories of narrow intelligence will widen and become superhuman.

I view LLM as a search engine, that can find and present the knowledge in a way that is easier to consume.

For instance: Find me a solution to 2x2. I see this as a search problem, not reasoning problem.

I think many scientists don't look at it from this angle and push the agenda that somehow current AI can reason. It can't. It's just a search engine / pattern matching contraption that works so well it can fool people into thinking they interact with an intelligence.

Frankly, many people "think" in the same way. They store facts in their brain and then retrieve them when asked, but they have limited ability to arrive at new facts from those they already know, without external input.

In that sense, the "AI" can certainly replace humans in tasks that don't require to think or where there is a need to distil information from a wide array of sources in a useful way.

I see it as translation, not search. Search is already done fantastically well at small scale with simple indexing, and (before adversarial reactions from SEO) at internet scale with Page rank.

Asking if LLMs are really reasoning or not feels like an argument about terminology, like asking if A* really is route planning.

Having tried a week of LLM instead of search, the results are usually very good as a search engine goes (I used you.com that adds search results)

But the amount of hallucinations was staggering. There is nothing behind the curtain so to speak. I constantly had to guide it like a little kid.

Is you.com using gpt4?

Sorry for the late reply, I think gpt4 is behind a paywall.

Well, if you haven’t tried gpt4 you haven’t really experienced modern AI.

The following is a logical reasoning problem. Determine which answer, A,B,C, or D is correct

FXGB, HXIB, JXKB, _____, NXOB

A. OXPBB. B. KXMBC. C. LXLBD. D. LXMB

ChatGPT The pattern in the sequence "FXGB, HXIB, JXKB, _____, NXOB" suggests an alternating increment in the letters surrounding "X".

Analyzing each component:

The first letter sequence: F, H, J, __, N

The pattern here is increasing by 2: F (+2) → H, H (+2) → J. Following this, J (+2) → L. So, the first letter of the missing term is L. The third letter sequence: G, I, K, __, O

The pattern is the same as the first sequence: G (+2) → I, I (+2) → K. So, K (+2) → M. The third letter of the missing term is M. The last letter sequence: B, B, B, __, B

The pattern is consistent: the letter B repeats. So, the last letter of the missing term is B. Combining these, the missing term is LXM(B).

The answer is C. LXL(B)D.

----

Unfortunately I did not make up the question myself, so is it already in the training set?

I asked the question on GPT 4 and got the right answer:

To solve this logical reasoning problem, we need to look for patterns in the given sequence: FXGB, HXIB, JXKB, _____, NXOB.

1. Analyzing the first and last letters of each group: - FXGB → HXIB → JXKB → ? → NXOB - F → H → J → ? → N

   Here, the pattern in the first letter seems to be skipping one letter in the alphabet each time (F +2 → H, H +2 → J, J +2 → L). So, the first letter of the missing group should be L.

   Looking at the last letter, we see a similar pattern:
   - B → B → B → ? → B

   The last letter is consistently B, so the last letter of the missing group should also be B.

2. Now, for the middle letters: - FXGB → HXIB → JXKB → ? → NXOB

   The middle letter appears to be consistently 'X', and the next letter is incrementing by one each time (G → I → K → ? → O). Following this pattern, the letter after 'X' should be M (K +1 → L, L +1 → M).

So, putting it all together, the sequence should be LXMB, which is option D. Therefore, the correct answer is D. LXMB.

ChatGPT uses v3.5, which isn't very smart. If you run this through GPT4, it solves it correctly:

    To solve this problem, we need to identify the pattern in the given sequence.  
       
    Let's examine the sequence step by step:  
       
    1. FXGB  
    2. HXIB  
    3. JXKB  
    4. _____  
    5. NXOB  
       
    Now let's look at each component of the sequences:  
       
    The first letter in each set:  
       
    - F (6th letter of the alphabet)  
    - H (8th letter)  
    - J (10th letter)  
    - ? (We need to find this one)  
    - N (14th letter)  
       
    We can observe that the sequence is increasing by 2 each time (6, 8, 10, ?, 14). Therefore, the missing letter should be the 12th letter of the alphabet, which is L.  
       
    The second letter in each set is consistently 'X', so we can assume that it will remain 'X' in the missing set as well.  
       
    The third letter in each set:  
       
    - G (7th letter of the alphabet)  
    - I (9th letter)  
    - K (11th letter)  
    - ? (We need to find this one)  
    - O (15th letter)  
       
    Like the first letter, this sequence is also increasing by 2 each time (7, 9, 11, ?, 15). Therefore, the missing letter should be the 13th letter of the alphabet, which is M.  
       
    The fourth letter in each set:  
       
    - B (2nd letter of the alphabet)  
    - I (9th letter)  
    - B (2nd letter)  
    - ? (We need to find this one)  
    - B (2nd letter)  
       
    There doesn't seem to be a consistent pattern for the fourth letter, but we can see that it is alternating between 'B' and 'I'. Given the pattern, we would expect the fourth letter in the missing set to be 'B' to maintain the alternation.  
       
    Putting it all together, the missing set should be:  
       
    LXMB  
       
    Therefore, the answer is D. LXMB.

It blows my mind how people persistently proudly proclaim the superiority of the human mind over artificial intelligence, while making silly mistakes like comparing themselves against an outdated inferior model instead of the state-of-the-art!

The reason it got it wrong was i pasted it wrong. The second time it worked with correct spacing.

This response is actually quite illustrative of the stochastic nature of LLMs. Under normal circumstances a human would never make this kind of error.

The system remains coherent long enough to produce the right answer, yet it still confidentially selects the wrong answer because it only understands the question as a function of statistical relationships between tokens, unlike humans who would understand the question at a conceptual level.

That's why the 'G' in AGI is so important.