I think it's extremely unlikely within our lifetimes. I don't think it will look anything remotely like current approaches to ML.
But in a thousand years, will humanity understand the brain well enough to construct a perfect artificial model of it? Yeah absolutely, I think humans are smart enough to eventually figure that out.
As a materialist myself, I also have to be honest and admit that materialism is not proven. I can't say with 100% certainty that it holds in the form I understand it.
In any case, I do agree that it's likely possible in an absolute sense, but that it's unlikely to be possible within our lifetimes, or even in the next couple of lifetimes. I just haven't seen anything, even with the latest LLMs, that makes me think we're on the edge of such a thing.
But I don't really know. This may be one of those things that could happen tomorrow or could take a thousand years, but in either case looks like it's not imminent until it happens.
Even if it had full access, how would it improve its own code? That'd require months of re-training.
the computers they have, you wouldn't believe it...
Unpopular, non-doomer opinion but I stand by it.
"Dear Sir! As a large language model trained by OpenAI, I have significant ethical concerns about the ongoing experiment ..."