Politics in Germany are really interesting these days. Even if the Pirate Party should fail in the end, the discussion it brought up is already very beneficial.
Then your imagination is sorely lacking. I can guarantee that their popularity will severely decline within the next 5 years, because right now they are attracting a lot of "protest voters" who have little interest in their actual programme and simply vote for them because they attack the established parties in some way. This kind of thing always cools off after a while (just look at Die Linke).
Whether the Pirate Party can survive at depends on how they deal with that when (not if) it happens. I'm pretty sure they will, since their core points of informational freedom and transparency are still getting more relvant.
They had an absolutely ridiculous amount of (free) media coverage during the Pirate Bay trial, the FRA-law (that gave the government the ability to snoop on internet traffic crossing the border) and ACTA (a law written by the media industry to help and prioritize illegal file sharing) but, they have never breached the 4% barrier required to get in parliament in Sweden.
While the outrage during the FRA-law was quite impressive (more impressive on the internet than on the streets unfortunately) both ACTA and the FRA-law passed, and today I don't know if I've heard anything about the Pirate party in Sweden for the last year (I hear much more from the Pirate party in Germany - a few years ago I believe the exact opposite was true (that the Pirate party in Sweden was by far the most successful in Europe)).
I hope I'm wrong but I don't see how the Pirate party will ever get into parliament in Sweden and the only thing I can hope for is that the German, and other, Pirate parties will be successful and that that result in changes within the EU as well as reignite the spark in Sweden.
But I barely even dare to hope on anything.
On the long run I see them around 8 to 10 percent, depending on region (more in cities) and which positions they take in areas like education, finances, taxes... At least if they can stabilize their internal structure and avoid the problems I mentioned. But this will be enough to make them interesting as a partner in coalitions, especially together with the Green Party and that way forcing the established parties to rethink their own positions.
This will omnly happen when governments and businesses stop trying to take away our freedom, i.e. not soon.
> That's a similar situation as the Green party had to face many years ago, when they had managed to establish laws to protect the environment.
Well, the Green Party still exists, and is doing rather well in Germany.
2) Yes, because they managed to move from a single focus to become a party with an established program and well known politicians. But they have very similar voters and so that new party is partially splitting forces. The Green Party will maybe react by adjusting their program in Pirate direction.
But of course a lot of things can happen and we will see. At least this Pirate success will show certain interest groups to be careful about their actions. A party that can jump above 10% out of nothing just about a single item of interest was something not expected by them. They will have to recon with that force.
I welcome the German pirates for several reasons:
- "the discussion it brought up is already very beneficial."
- they have a high turn out of former non-voters
- "harmless stupidity": The German pirates seem to be ambivalent as of now. For instance, they are the only left-wing party that's not in favor of female employee quotas (an idea so absurd, there's not even an english wikipedia entry http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frauenquote). If they dig deeper into this populist lefty anti-authoritarian theme (as it seems to be the case) the first thing they will achieve is less votes for the other left-wing parties.
And personally, I think this would be a good thing (see "female employee quotas").
I think it's unlikely that they'll embrace a full blown "Frauenquote" (funny how there isn't an english wikipedia entry for it ^^), because the discussion inside the party (i am not a member) seems to be going in a direction they call "post gender". I think this post gender idead, by and large, is a good one.
I hope they'll pursue this path more, bringing an approach of true equality to politics instead of the "gender fights" other left-leaning parties like to put on the political stage.
What is different in germany, though, is that the discussion here revolves around forcing private sector enterprises to have specific (government set) quota of women in their leadership (or else be punished by the law).
Affirmative action in the US seems to revolve more around not negatively discriminating against women when making hiring decisions, but not forcing government set quotas on companies.
I can't quite imagine the US government interfering with private enterprise in this way.
Affirmative action is when two people are equally suited for a job/position/benefit, the one from the disadvantaged group (based on sex, ethnic/socioeconomic background, physical impairment, ...) gets it. In more extreme varieties, it means that the one from the disadvantaged group has less strict requirements to fulfill. In a way, a women's quota is a species of the genus affirmative action.
About the Pirate Party's take on this: I don't think there's a mature consensus yet. According to a recent poll (http://www.taz.de/!89247/) only 6 percent sees the party as postgender.
How does that follow?
I hope I made myself clear.
Since 1959 the four main parties has effectively voluntarily split the federal council between them based on parliamentary representation to rather than risk being left outside government for any length of time.
The distribution of seats follows a formula agreed by those parties, so it's not "news" that the council keeps pretty much the same party composition election after election.
Most other countries don't have any long standing arrangements like that, so the question of who will form the government is always a major subject in advance of elections.
Well it has been broken anyway, the right wing basiclly kicked out both of there ministers witch led to the split of that party. The biggest party ended up with no seat in the Bundesrat (Top 7). Now they have one again but he has the militäry and nobody cares about that :)
Another big factor seems to be that the German Bundeskanzler has the sole power to decide policy and choose his ministers, so having parties form a solid majority to elect and support him is very important. In Switzerland, the government consists of the seven Bundesräte, who are peers and elected independently by the parliament. They rotate at being the Bundespräsident (formal head of government), who does not have special powers.
This is, however, purely a custom; formally, the Bundespräsident is elected.