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Comment by atleastoptimal | Hacker News Reader

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It might, it might not.

Despise my bullish sentiment on AI (I won't be surprised by LLMs being PhD level in everything in 2 years), it is entirely possible that the LLM approach has practical limits that mean it will always be a jack of all trades and master of none, that mastery can only be achieved by specialised AI such as AlphaZero etc. that the LLMs can call out to and which themselves are hard to create in new domains.

This could in turn cause another AI winter, even as the current state of the art models are turned into fully open-sourced commodities that can run locally on cellphones.

Whether it's LLMs some other new groundbreaking architecture the trends and underlying principles are undeniable. To think it's just another hype cycle at this point is silly, and it's crazy how many people look at crypto and AI and think they're remotely similar.

> the trends and underlying principles are undeniable. To think it's just another hype cycle at this point is silly

Saying that is surely a sign of hype, no?

> and it's crazy how many people look at crypto and AI and think they're remotely similar.

I don't think they're similar, but I absolutely do recognise why they may seem similar. Lots of humans make quick judgements and then anchor on them, and there are many ways to draw lines between almost anything. It's almost like humans are just stochastic pattern matchers… :P

Do you have, like, prior evidence for this statement, or is it just LLM cult stuff?

It's current a popular tech, so it must have no realistic limit.

Just like the 1969 moon landing meant spaceships for everybody and space colonies in 30 years...

That was more an issue of political will and priorities than technological limits, though.

I don't it would have moved far, even with 10x the budget.

There are very real technical and physical and physiological limits preventing this which might be overcome at some point, but not in a few decades through sheer will, or more money at the problem, or because "it's inevitable".

Strawman. To assume the similarities between space travel in the 60s and AI now only goes as far as "current popular tech" you're either not arguing in good faith or severely short sighted.

I'm not making an argument by analogy, as much as making a prediction of a similar trajectory and similar dissapointment.

That said, there are tons of examples of hyped "current technologies" sold as panaceas that turned into diminishing returns quite fast.

Seriously though if u think the implications of AI can be boiled to LLM cult hype you are seriously shortsighted.

It's weird since u have a public key on your profile you must be someone seriously into tech. Why are so many skilled tech veterans so naively bearish on AI? Is it pride in the primacy of their skills being threatened by artificial intelligence? Is it an inability to gauge general trends outside their field of narrow expertise?

The destiny of all natural intelligence is to extinct itself, by damaging the environment, starting an all-out nuclear war, engineer bio weapons, and in many other ways, or just to be wiped out by the first visiting comet ELE, and in the process power starving and killing the substrates of any artificial intelligence it has created too...

and artificial intelligence to beget natural intelligence, completing the loop.

I think both humans and AI's are only as intelligent as their language data, maybe just one bit more than language

There is no such thing as "intelligence".

Then why can I type this sentence when a cereal box can't? And please don't give a snarky "because you have hands" type answer.

> Then why can I type this sentence when a cereal box can't?

Give it a couple years. IoT WiFi + chatbot + spambot is yesterday's tech.

Because the cereal box is not living matter, for starters.

Parent didn't say there's no such thing as life.

~110-120 IQ response

Yes, overqualified response for a ~80 IQ question

Maybe there's no intelligence behind this comment, but intelligence is all around you. It's a clearly defined phenomenon.

There is.

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