My understanding is the effects are different. The vaccine-caused effects manifest in the young and are not understood. We can’t predict it nor even really detect it in autopsy and just see it after the fact as a statistical ghost. The exposure-caused damage is generally studied in the unvaccinated population; it creates measurable damage. (The recurring confounding variable is income and education; the unvaccinated are poorer and less educated, both within the country and globally.)

Article from Sep 2020 for example.

https://www.science.org/content/article/evidence-builds-covi...

And there's a bunch of similar articles from March and April 2020.

to wit, this article may be a way of deflecting the blame from the angry, invisible unicorns causing heart damage

edit: I can't help but imagine scientists typing lab data into a computer, and some random dude off the street who knows nothing about epidemiology is standing in the corner shouting "stop rushing!!! slow down!!!", and the scientist glances over annoyedly and slows down their typing slightly