When they say "above average" temperature, does that mean anything from +0.0001 C to +20 C? Is this derived from some underlying prediction distribution of actual temperatures, or is the prediction exclusively binary?
Your second question is reminiscent of Baldrick asking how the war started. Do you mean "above what average?" The average of the last few years.
Is that a mean? a median? is that the mean predicted value among predicted values that lie above the average, or is that the overall mean prediction which happens to lie above average? Who's Baldrick?
> Do you mean "above what average?" The average of the last few years.
That's a good question but it's a different question. I assumed there's some well-defined baseline average in use here. My question was about what the predicted deviations from that average.