This is interesting but largely a rephrasing of this original source: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-wetter-s...
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/l...
Which you can find from here which has a bunch of other information:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ens...
Which you can find from the forecast tab from the main landing page for ENSO on the NOAA PSL site:
Your second question is reminiscent of Baldrick asking how the war started. Do you mean "above what average?" The average of the last few years.
Is that a mean? a median? is that the mean predicted value among predicted values that lie above the average, or is that the overall mean prediction which happens to lie above average? Who's Baldrick?
> Do you mean "above what average?" The average of the last few years.
That's a good question but it's a different question. I assumed there's some well-defined baseline average in use here. My question was about what the predicted deviations from that average.