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Comment by Justsignedup | Hacker News Reader

Any info on the approximate size of the Russian heli fleet? Sounds like 21 is a big number for them.

Apparently Russia had 899 military helicopters prior to the start of the invasion, with 134 having been produced in 2021. They claimed they then produced 296 in 2022 after the war ramped up, but claims of substantially increased military production appear to be generally unreliable. Still, being able to take out 7% of annual production for even the most generous estimate in a single strike is nothing to scoff at. And up until July of this year, Russia had lost about 90 helicopters making this single strike a significant portion of their total losses thus far.

Even if the numbers lost aren't on their own crippling, this will also force Russia to either relocate its helicopter forces further from the front lines (reducing the overall utility of its helicopter fleet) or invest substantial resources into better defending its bases in the area (of course coming at the expense of defending other critical locations).

Exactly. Reaching net positive attrition and preventing resupply will make it possible to bring the conflict to an eventual conclusion.

Conversely, the current estimate on total heli fleet losses (including the 21) is 131. This single strike represents a significant chunk of observed/estimated losses to date.

So as some other commentators have pointed out, 21 isn't 'staggering' in the scheme of plausible total fleet size (though we don't know what the mix of models destroyed was was - obviously Ka-52s losses are far more impactful than Mi-8 losses), but the size in a single strike will force adaption.

Finally in absolute terms - 21 is just a big deal period. 21 choppers is on the order of a US army aviation battalion. The most disastrous modern attack helicopter operation by the US Army (the attack on Karbala in 2003) deployed 31 AH-64s, suffered one shoot down, one downing due to equipment failure, and damage on all 29 other airframes (it took about a month for the formation to repair and reconstitute and be able to deploy again). Karbala forced changes to helicopter deployment by the US army, and we'll likely see similar forced adaption by the Russians here.

> we'll likely see similar forced adaption by the Russians here

The Russian army has been strikingly bad at learning. ATACMs’ range is known. That they were being delivered to Ukraine was known. Yet here are closely-spaced places and choppers within firing range.

Same for e.g. doing in-person meetings of senior leaders in Sevastopol, or recapitulating Bakhmut in Avidiivka.

Right, but they will learn. GMLRS apparently isn't pulling in the same haul now as it was last year.

> they will learn

The evidence doesn’t sustain this hypothesis. Within a single command line, lessons are learned. But the effectiveness of tactics moves across the battlefield after demonstrated success is nuts. And senior commanders are dying fast enough that we see reversion time and again.

Russia fights like Syria and other calcified dictatorships more than a modern army.

The important number is the number of Ka-52. Those have been causing trouble for Ukraine offensive since they can launch missiles from longer range. Estimates there are 200 of them. 21 is large percentage of those, and even more of those active in theatre.

And they're $1.5B RUB / $16 m USD each and it takes a long time to make 1.

The Russian military as a whole had about 1500 helicopters as of 2021. Some of those are probably not operational.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/259396/global-combat-hel...

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