I would expect that dons is talking about a 1M codebase which already consists out of manageable pieces. It's only, that the pieces have to work together, talk to each other, know about each other (but not too much).
Sometimes software solves problems which provoke incidental complexity because of sheer size and my experience (albeit not above 500k) tells me that indeed, all bits help, also compiler enforced type checks. I would never bet my life on tests. As you write: "because the tests should catch the unanticipated parts", that's the point: tests never catch unanticipated parts by their very nature. Sometimes, by sheer luck, yes.