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Comment by kuon | Hacker News Reader

What I am wondering is when electric car will become as cheap as ICE. I'm installing solar panels and even if I charge an electric car 100% at home, a similar ICE car is nearly 20% cheaper (factoring all costs). If you charge outside it's more expensive than gas. For example, a Renault Zoe, 50kWh about 40$ to charge here, 350km range (what manufacturer says), so about 11$ per 100km, my space star uses 4.5l per 100km or 8.5$ (actually measured consumption). But the space star was 14k new, Zoe is 33k. (Insurance and tax the same).

This is a genuine question, I have been wanting to go electric for long, but it is still a luxury. And I haven't even taken into account older cars you can buy for a few k $.

What is the strategy? Will government make ice more expensive? Ban them? EU is already backpedaling on goals for all electric.

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They're already cheaper. The base trims of the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are now less expensive than the average gas car in the US: https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/electric-vehicles/tesla.... That's before any tax incentives.

(This is purchase price. I don't know which math you're using for your "factoring all costs" conclusion, so I have no opinion about that comparison.)

5-Year Ownership Costs

Tesla 3 - $49,763

Toyota Corolla - $32,286

Corolla is nicer, more comfortable and reliable car.

https://www.edmunds.com/car-comparisons/?veh1=401919101&veh2...

> Corolla is nicer, more comfortable

I drove a Corolla for years (about a decade ago) and recently got to drive a Model 3 for a week. I disagree with your assessment of nicer and more comfortable. Model 3 wins there for me.

But in my long experience with a Corolla and short experience with a Model 3, I will agree with the Corolla being more reliable.

I am comparing a new Corolla to a new Model 3. You say Corolla made 20 years ago is worse than Model 3. I agree with you.

A decade, not two.

I’ve only sat in a new Corolla, not driven one, but the old Corolla was more comfortable than the new one.

I took taxi rides in Corolla Altis. It is quite comfortable compared to Model 3 where I cannot even fit behind driver. I never drove any of these, speaking as a backseat passenger. What I also noticed Tesla 3 jumps on any road imperfection.

> It is quite comfortable compared to Model 3 where I cannot even fit behind driver.

That’s odd because the dimensions of the Model 3 are all larger than in a Corolla.

Yeah, the Model 3 does have a stiffer ride than most cars.

Sitting in the back seat of a Model 3 as a 6 foot person is a terrible experience. It is like this because of the rear of the car sloping downwards for aerodynamics. I avoid them whenever possible.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/2532913/

The base trims of pick your lower end ICE are also less expensive than the average gas car.

How do those Teslas compare to a gas car with similar passenger room?

What do you even mean? This comment sounds like it's intentionally misrepresenting things.

You must know that if it costs you 80 cents per kWh that you have unusually expensive power. Not even in central Europe is the power this expensive.

Further, just from your own calculations in this comment you can see that it is cheaper to run an EV than an ICE if your power price is less than 80 cents per kWh, which is most of the developed world. Especially if you have dynamic pricing // off peak rates and charge at night.

I'm sorry I wasn't clearer in my initial comment, I was on my phone and it wasn't really clear.

My Mitsubishi space star did cost 14k new. A Zoe, which I picked because it is similar, cost 35k new. So it is 21k more.

There is the best scenario, where I charge only from home, power is 0.3$.

In this scenario, it cost about 4.2$ for 100km.

If I charge outside, power is around 0.8$ here, so it cost 11$ for 100km.

My ice car cost 8.5$ per 100km.

Best case scenario, EV cost 4.3$ less per 100km, to break even with the 21k more in the price, I need to do 488 372 km, which is about 40 years of driving as I do about 12 000km per year.

If I charge outside, this become even less and less interesting.

There is nearly zero used EV. I can buy a 2010 corola for 10k and do 100 000km on it, a tesla model Y is 45k.

My point is, today, buying an EV is a luxury.

You haven't considered maintenance costs, much cheaper for EVs.

Yes but I also factored 100% efficiency for charging. And it's not that much more expensive, everything engine related is free because of the service package I had with the car. With ev you still have to change breaks, and tires (which is the biggest maintenace cost) wear faster on ev because of the weight.

This is different for older used car, I give you that, but it does not cover the big price difference.

Charging is not 100%. It's around 90%.

Brake pads wear out less in EVs because you get some of your energy back with engine braking. Around 22%.

And saying tires are the biggest maintenance cost is hard to parse as it depends wildly on how long you plan to keep the car.

[1] https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv-ev.shtml

I meant tires were the biggest cost in my example, I looked at my invoice.

But anyway I don't want to argue either way, I have no love for ice any more than ev. But I wanted to buy an ev for a year and every time I do the math, I cannot afford it.

As another commenter mentioned, they're cheaper today. Factoring in gas savings, my Tesla Model Y pays for itself at 240,000 miles. Tesla's seem to have no problem lasting that long since they have 1/10th the moving parts of ICE cars to fail, and the car requires no regular maintenance. The break even point is much lower than 240k miles, especially when you consider that the Model Y seats 7, has a semi luxurious interior, and accelerates from 0-60 mph in 4.5 seconds.

How many miles does the Tesla's battery last, assuming a friendly climate? Did you factor in the battery replacement cost?

On average, Tesla batteries are at 80% capacity at 200,000 miles. So no, I haven't factored in battery replacement cost. Electrical components typically fail early if they fail at all, so any replacements would be covered under the generous battery warranty.

And there are owners that haven’t even gotten to 70% at 300,000 miles. And where gas is more expensive, and electricity is less expensive, like Washington state, the repayment period is more like 100,000 miles.

Gotta say that’s quite impressive and explains why Teslas hold their value relatively well in the used market.

Yeah - they last longer than gas cars!

From my research the battery holds up very well over a decade plus. If someone replaces a battery it’s because of a sudden failure just like if an ICE needed a new engine or transmission. They aren’t dwindling down to 0 miles.

Even if it does wear down and doesn't meet the requirements for vehicular use, there should be some possibility of re-use or re-manufacture for fixed use, as a home or grid-battery. That should give you a core credit on the battery replacement, reducing the cost significantly. At least one company is trying this already:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/the-big-reuse-25-mwh...

Yeah I imagine that will become common once there is a big enough supply of used batteries.

Plus battery technology is getting better and better. If the battery fails in my MX after 10 years I'm pretty sure that the replacement battery will be either cheaper or more performant, or possibly even both!

>Will government make ice more expensive?

Two things are going to happen:

Cars in general are going to continue becoming more expensive (it's still functionally illegal for any American automaker to turn a profit on anything smaller than an SUV- gas or electric- the only automakers that still make normal cars are those that come from countries where trucks are largely impractical). Safety standards will increase to the point where cars simply cannot pass them, because electric SUVs weigh at least a half ton more than their gasoline counterparts hence even more accommodation will need to be made for them.

Additionally, electricity will become more expensive to match what gasoline used to cost. Remember, natural gas generation forms the overwhelming majority of new installations now (it's cleaner and cheaper than coal), and there's nothing stopping obscene taxes from being applied after the fact to that, either- especially since those generators are just replacing coal plants rather than increasing base load generation capacity. The whole "but my car can store power" thing is going to crater its battery longevity should that become necessary; developed countries should not intentionally make their grids as unreliable as South Africa's, but they're going to try anyway.

>EU is already backpedaling on goals for all electric.

Germany fucked around and found out that it's hard to run an industrial base without a steady supply of Russian natural gas or French nuclear energy. A government's concern about climate obviously takes a back-seat to concerns about not getting deposed by a population that values being able to afford to eat and keep the lights on today and tomorrow over slightly-cooler temperatures in 50 years, and "let's not destroy our money printing industrial base" is a perfectly valid conclusion for them to make when both of those inputs functionally disappear.

What do you pay for electricity?

It looks like you'll pay about 1/4 for a Tesla then gas.

https://www.motortrend.com/features/how-much-does-it-cost-to...

Where in the world does power cost $0.80 per kWh?!

Theoretically, it will happen just once, because the local price of ICE will decrease as the local supply of EVs increases. In other words, the cost of ICE vehicles should slowly plummet to zero as the EV market replaces it. When will they eventually cross each other? Nobody really knows.

Once the majority of the population runs mostly on renewable energy, they're going to vote to tax fossil fuels into oblivion.

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