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Comment by ryanSrich | Hacker News Reader

I think Toyota genuinely believes EVs are a fad. They might even be right for the current wave, but long term I think they will be wrong.

Where I think they could win is with plug-in hybrids. Plugins have all the advantages of a combustion engine with none of the downsides of an EV.

- easily plugin into any outlet

- range is usually around 30 miles, enough for most people to daily drive on electric only

- combined electric/gas gets you 100+ MPGs

My wife drive a Prius prime, and has filled up once in the last 5 months (she drives everyday for work).

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EVs aren't gonna be mainstream in Japan until they figure out how to generate electricity without importing fossil fuels.

EVs as 4x more efficient than ICE cars - assuming your electricity generation doesn't have a massive loss.

If you're burning fossil fuels, you're losing 60% at generation and another 10% in transmission.

It's not gonna make sense to spend more on a car and lug around a giant battery and build a new infrastructure for a tiny improvement.

If you're the US and can generate a crap ton of solar because half your country is a desert - then it can work.

Or if you have access to other renewable sources or can build nuclear at scale.

The hybrids were - and still are - a smart move because they can be sold to just about everybody and they offer a sliding scale by dropping in a larger battery from 'mostly ICE' to 'mostly BEV'. Of course you still have a more complex setup but it solves the range issue and allows the vehicles to operate in areas where there isn't a whole lot of power available. Those I get. But Hydrogen and Ammonia make zero sense to me, both from a safety aspect as well as distribution.

Thinking that EVs are a fad is very much behind the times, BEVs have a lot of momentum now and grid operators the world over are planning for wholesale electrification of transportation, with the exception of long haul trucks - for now - this is something that is on course for large scale adaptation. It will still need infrastructure upgrades and obviously more generating power but that can be done incrementally.

If not BEVs then we have serious problems because right now there are no viable contenders other than to burn more fossil fuels and given the amount of legislation in place right now that's simply going to stop. If you're lucky you might be able to drive your classic car or maybe there will be conversion kits for those as well (there are already some of those on the market today, but for now it doesn't look like there will be a mandatory retirement of all ICEs on the horizon).

It probably made a lot of sense when your wife bought it, but the Prius Prime is now more expensive than the Model 3 SR, and more expensive than the Model 3 LR after rebate.

I think that competing with BEV's will be difficult for PHEV's unless they are cheaper. They're both going after the "can plug in at home" market.

And for those who can't plug in at home, most people probably prefer cheaper non-plugin hybrids and ICE's to the more expensive PHEV's.

I really want a quadricycle citroen ami for where I live. I have a 15km commute max. And when I can't WFH I usually drive with my wife. But I'd rather a small zippy little EV that I can park on a postage stamp.

Sadly, quadricycle aren't legal in Australia, because everyone's become addicted to F150's.

Is the ICE engine itself ok with that infrequently of usage?

The main problem would be the quality of the fuel after not using the ICE for an extended period.

Hybrids are horrible, and basically a plot by automakers to keep selling ICE cars. Take a small/primitive ICE engine plus an unuseable small/cheap EV kit (ask someone with a true EV, 30 miles is when they start to look for a charger). Twice the engines, twice the possible maintenance problems, and since both are cramped, almost none of the advantages.

I like my hybrid. It is very economic and very convenient when I live in an apartment building, without easy access to recharging.

Had zero maintenance problems in two years.

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