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Nuclear power.

Pushing for more EVs means increase in electricity demand in Japan, when they are already struggling as they had to shut down part of their old plants, and would need a political and technical miracle to justify building new ones that the public would acknowledge as safe enough.

Betting the farm on electricity is not viable in the current Japanese situation, so Japanese maker looking long and hard at alternatives shouldn't be a surprise.

Other countries have the same issue in variant degrees, so Toyota forsaw they could make a full EV turn later if the alternatives don't pan out.

I think Toyota genuinely believes EVs are a fad. They might even be right for the current wave, but long term I think they will be wrong.

Where I think they could win is with plug-in hybrids. Plugins have all the advantages of a combustion engine with none of the downsides of an EV.

- easily plugin into any outlet

- range is usually around 30 miles, enough for most people to daily drive on electric only

- combined electric/gas gets you 100+ MPGs

My wife drive a Prius prime, and has filled up once in the last 5 months (she drives everyday for work).

Is the ICE engine itself ok with that infrequently of usage?

The main problem would be the quality of the fuel after not using the ICE for an extended period.

EVs aren't gonna be mainstream in Japan until they figure out how to generate electricity without importing fossil fuels.

EVs as 4x more efficient than ICE cars - assuming your electricity generation doesn't have a massive loss.

If you're burning fossil fuels, you're losing 60% at generation and another 10% in transmission.

It's not gonna make sense to spend more on a car and lug around a giant battery and build a new infrastructure for a tiny improvement.

If you're the US and can generate a crap ton of solar because half your country is a desert - then it can work.

Or if you have access to other renewable sources or can build nuclear at scale.

The hybrids were - and still are - a smart move because they can be sold to just about everybody and they offer a sliding scale by dropping in a larger battery from 'mostly ICE' to 'mostly BEV'. Of course you still have a more complex setup but it solves the range issue and allows the vehicles to operate in areas where there isn't a whole lot of power available. Those I get. But Hydrogen and Ammonia make zero sense to me, both from a safety aspect as well as distribution.

Thinking that EVs are a fad is very much behind the times, BEVs have a lot of momentum now and grid operators the world over are planning for wholesale electrification of transportation, with the exception of long haul trucks - for now - this is something that is on course for large scale adaptation. It will still need infrastructure upgrades and obviously more generating power but that can be done incrementally.

If not BEVs then we have serious problems because right now there are no viable contenders other than to burn more fossil fuels and given the amount of legislation in place right now that's simply going to stop. If you're lucky you might be able to drive your classic car or maybe there will be conversion kits for those as well (there are already some of those on the market today, but for now it doesn't look like there will be a mandatory retirement of all ICEs on the horizon).

I really want a quadricycle citroen ami for where I live. I have a 15km commute max. And when I can't WFH I usually drive with my wife. But I'd rather a small zippy little EV that I can park on a postage stamp.

Sadly, quadricycle aren't legal in Australia, because everyone's become addicted to F150's.

It probably made a lot of sense when your wife bought it, but the Prius Prime is now more expensive than the Model 3 SR, and more expensive than the Model 3 LR after rebate.

I think that competing with BEV's will be difficult for PHEV's unless they are cheaper. They're both going after the "can plug in at home" market.

And for those who can't plug in at home, most people probably prefer cheaper non-plugin hybrids and ICE's to the more expensive PHEV's.

Hybrids are horrible, and basically a plot by automakers to keep selling ICE cars. Take a small/primitive ICE engine plus an unuseable small/cheap EV kit (ask someone with a true EV, 30 miles is when they start to look for a charger). Twice the engines, twice the possible maintenance problems, and since both are cramped, almost none of the advantages.

I like my hybrid. It is very economic and very convenient when I live in an apartment building, without easy access to recharging.

Had zero maintenance problems in two years.

The way I’ve seen it explained is that Toyota is very good at developing and building combustion engines, which has given them a competitive edge for a very long time, and they don’t want to give up that edge. There’s no guarantee that they’ll be good enough at building EVs to be among the top ranks of EV makers and that frightens them.

I mean, sure, I get that line of thinking, but it feels suicidal for them to be coming up with cockamamie ideas that nobody is asking for and have the potential to be significantly more dangerous than current offerings, rather than trying their best to move on with everyone else. That is to say, I'm not opposed to non-polluting alternatives to EVs, whatever that could look like, but... ammonia?

I feel like they risk being even further behind the curve if they're not actively working on an EV.

They have EVs out there now. Not in sufficient quantity yet though.

For instance, here is their Dutch website (4 models, 2 vans and two passenger vehicles):

https://www.toyota.nl/elektrisch-rijden/batterij-elektrisch

I learned something today! Thanks. :)

I think that's an oversimplification of auto engineering, and more-so Toyota's strategy (whatever that is)

Toyota offered quality that is unheard of at that economic point across the board; it isn't simply quality drivetrains, it's quality everything that leads to a reliable and trustworthy vehicle that has a high resale value.

Now, I don't know why they're doing what they're doing with the alternative engine designs; but I do know that their manufacturing capability and research prowess is top-notch, and that they could pretty smoothly dive straight into EV by pulling strings with long-term partners. Their journey to full EV won't be the same as ground-up groups like Tesla/Rivian/Whatever.

I don't think it should be viewed as a slip in expertise and capability -- I think it's more like a moon-shot.

Moonshots should have at least a remote chance of success. This is unhinged.

I'm going to take a break from bashing Toyota to suggest that this might just be a special use car or for particular circumstances that are not related to EVs. (The EV slant seems to be mostly from the deranged writer on the website.)

The engine was shown by a Chinese partner of Toyota's (which is why the comments about Japan's geopolitical relations with China are extra ridiculous). It isn't going to kill EVs; China is all-in on EVs.

Instead of the conspiratorial, let me go to something more realistic. Toyota is a Japanese company and not everyone's skills are going to transition to electric vehicles. For those left behind, funding research projects seems to be a sensible way to reward their efforts from the past.

That's fair, the article seems to be low quality, but other news sources back this up to a large degree, what with Toyota being a 50% stakeholder in the engine project here that seems to be a pretty big move if it was done without their permission and cooperation, which they indicate they have engaged in.

Note that new engine projects, especially if they include non-standard fuels aren't exactly cheap.

I didn't mean to imply it was done without their permission, but rather that it is just not a big deal and more likely a research project.

At this point they would be in the world of alternative facts if they thought this was something for the mass market.

Well, that may be so but what should frighten them more is to become utterly irrelevant. Drive trains always should have been a commodity. Toyota makes excellent cars and that's not just the engine, it's the whole package that makes them a brand worthy of some respect. Suggesting that an ammonia fueled vehicle is the solution for their insecurities is playing fast and loose with their perceived image as a safety and environmentally aware company. They couldn't have picked a worse fuel for a vehicle, even if you can make it work in the lab.

Some of it might just be a japanese economics/security/government thing. Energy independence is really big for the japanese, and battery supply might be looking like another foreign dependence (especially on the big bad Chinese).

Some of it may be the japanese corporate culture being ossified and difficult to make large adaptations, since seniority is so important, you can't dissent.

Some of it may be an attempt to chase sunk costs / leverage former investments and market leaderships (FCEV) before Tesla left those in the dust.

Some of it may be that Toyota knows they missed the boat and are hoping to keep as many irons hot for future flexibility. Honestly, they may not like China, but they can get in the EV game effortlessly with some rebadging of Chinese stuff or just hopping on the Chinese drivetrain and battery infrastructure in the short run.

For local energy usage, Japan relies 95% of oil on mideast. It's the primary reason of trade deficit. It's critical if they stopped export. It must be more vulnerable than electricity usage, since solar panels, wind turbines, dam, nuclear, and batteries will continue working even after China stopped all exports.

For local manufacturing, Japan relies rare metals on China. It's vulnerable for EV manufacturers.

> What's up with Toyota? They had a head start on everybody for a long time with their hybrids and now it's one weird scheme after another.

Contrary to the heavy-handed tone of this article, I don't think that's actually true; Toyota is invested in EVs -- BEVs as well as FCEVs -- as well as doing far-out (and almost certain to be commercially unviable) efforts like this.

And FCEVs, while perhaps also a dead end, weren't a weird scheme they got into after they had a lead with hybrids, they started FCEV work 5 years before the first Prius was introduced in Japan.

> every other brand can't seem to retool fast enough to get to zero emissions line-ups as soon as they can design them and here is Toyota going against the flow with not just one but two exotic designs for which there is at present absolutely no infrastructure and no viable pathway to get there based on a single manufacturer's blessing

I assume you mean hydrogen FCEVs and Ammonia; the latter isn't in production and is not even at a concept-demo level, just an engine demo, the former...isn't a single manufacturer thing (Honda actually introduced FCEVs first, and is still selling them as well; they've been clear they see BEVs as definitely more dominant in the near term, but FCEVs as a potential longer-term play and they are keeping their oar in that market.)

Toyota (and Honda, and others -- e.g., Nissan and its "bio-ethanol" fueled fuel cell work) are just not putting all their eggs in one basket.

A hybrid engine is an engine. Engines are hard to build, and Toyota is very good at it.

Electric vehicles don’t have engines, only motors, and motors are far easier to build.

If Tesla is a battery factory searching for more things to put batteries in, Toyota is an engine factory searching for more things to put engines in.

A huge portion of the Japanese economy is based on the auto industry (something like 2.5% of GDP). EVs are much simpler than ICE vehicles. Additionally, Japan doesn't have expertise or the raw materials to be competitive in batteries, which is one of the main components of an EV.

So, from the perspective of Toyota, and from the Japanese economy as a whole, there is little reason to think that there is much value in manufacturing EVs. Sure, Toyota might be able to slap their brand on an EV and get a few out the door, but they're not going to dominate the market like they do today.

> Japan doesn't have expertise or the raw materials to be competitive in batteries

Japan is notoriously good at fundamental material science, and Panasonic is a battery giant. Sure there's tough competition, but they never shied away from fighting these kind of battles.

Relying on mainly China for the rare earth/metals could be an aspect of it though.

Note that this ammonia development is in a 50/50 JV between Toyota and the Chinese.

Maybe geopolitical? I'm not sure if Japan has the resources to produce batteries, and maybe they're hesitant to rely on China.

My guess is Ego. They decided batteries were a dead end a long time ago, and now can’t take the ‘face’ hit so keep doubling down.

This is also my conclusion, in the same way that if you get into a fender-bender there, you junk the car because it's dishonorable to drive the car after you got into a [minor] accident.

Really? Wow! So different. Although with repair cost and complexity increasing, many more cars are totaled / written off than used to be here in the US. Particularly EV’s.

I heard houses were a depreciating asset in Japan too.

Funny how cultures are different.

I remember seeing ads for $250 Maaco specials as a kid. They'd paint the whole car for that, although I can't imagine it'd be a good job.

A budget paint job on a single panel is up to $750 now.

The reason houses in Japan are such a depreciating asset is due to the population collapse. It's estimated there is a surplus of about 10 million houses.

That and culturally no one wants a 'used' house. They don't appreciate because a buyer is expected to tear down the old one, and so it's just in the way. [https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/16/japan-reusabl...]

I think it's a stretch to believe that ego is controlling a 300b company. It's an easy 'spectator' guesss, but more realistically whatever their strategy is is likely just being misinterpreted.

I mean, with that kind of cash and establishment you can do some real wacky things publicly that turn profit. A company the size of Toyota could influence public trends enough to make money on the side via profits from share-held groups.

Maybe they have a larger hand in refinery/opec/whatever markets than one would first imagine -- if that was the case then there is plenty of valid 'business reasoning' that would end in the publishing/advertisement of weird products.

Asian firms like Toyota are huge on face - and doing a switch back to batteries would make it very obvious that they (really one specific senior controlling exec, most likely!) lost (tens? hundreds?) of billions of dollars on a bad bet. And even more in lost time and market position.

Never underestimate ego in a situation like this. Hell, just look at what Elon is doing.

Why admit you screwed up (likely costing you your very lucrative position and bringing shame and dishonor to your family) when you can double down and try to reality distort your way out of failure? Sometimes it works!

When it doesn’t, it can bankrupt huge multinationals (or historically even nations occasionally!), but at that point it’s almost always the type of problem that someone else needs to help you solve anyway. Often ones you can even scapegoat foreign powers or domestic enemies with. Win/win.

Panasonic a Japanese company is already one of the major producers of batteries in the world and they produce a good number of those in Japan. They supply Tesla Model S and X batteries from their Japanese factories for example.

Most Japanese manufacturers are small and many parts of battery and battery cell supply depends on China. Japan lost the battery battle so want to use something else. Tesla’s largest battery supplier is Chinese CATL[0].

So in EV Japan is a minor player, if not for US sanctions Chinese EV makers would have overtaken Tesla as well, but which they will give them some time.

[0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-11/china-s-c...

Japan is an island maritime nation. They obviously have been paying attention to what is going on in Copenhagen. The first sea trial of an ammonia ship. https://www.man-es.com/company/press-releases/press-details/...

If ships do embrace ammonia technology, it may make sense to use it to power cars. If you are a big corp you have to hedge your bets. This seems a more realistic strategy for the world largest car company than to bet every thing on EVs.

Part of it's because the Japanese government was subsidising hydrogen research for a while so both they and Honda got hung up in that

I'd be very surprised of the government decided to subsidize hydrogen without Toyota's input.

Toyota makes mass produced cars. It makes more cars in a month than Tesla does all year. Sure Tesla has done quite well, but EVs aren't really mainstream. When its mainstream and the technology settles down Toyota will be there.

In the meantime the waiting lists for Toyota Hybrids are some of the longest in the industry - they're what people really want.

I wasn't comparing to Tesla per se but to the market in general and the fact that Toyota has some BEVs out but not in quantity (~2% of their sales) compared to other operators (for instance, VW: 7%) that sell both ICE and BEVs. Tesla and VW BEVs are a dime a dozen around here, I've seen a handful of Toyota's (mostly delivery vans).

They also seem to have been stuck for a long time on the 'hydrogen is the future' bandwagon.

https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/26/23738581/tesla-model-y-ev...

> Tesla Model Y is the first EV to become the world’s bestselling car

It's mainstream, Tesla drivers don't even wave to each other anymore.