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Comment by ckastner | Hacker News Reader

> Semiconductor in general is going bust, too much supply. All semiconductors companies invested more because of Covid (and the sudden huge demand).

Semiconductors are cyclical in general, and most sources that I trust believe that the bottom is already behind us. Many of the big players have already begun guiding revenue growth again, though not as massive as Nvidia's windwall, obviously.

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I think I've really picked the worst time to finish my PhD thesis and go on the semiconductor job market... Though I think it will delay me by a few months at worst.

After a couple decades you won't remember if you graduated during a boom or a bust.

I thought the evidence was that this did actually have a substantial impact on lifetime earnings and employment. The data I saw actually related to unemployment, but I would be surprised if it didn't have an impact. There are more opportunities to shine when things are on the up, and that benefit will persist into the bad times later. It's kind of like taking steroids as an athlete early on... you might stop later, but the muscle mass is still there.

In a bust period, a lot of people end up taking whatever job will help pay the bills and, at some point, getting into the field they studied for means competing with new grads with more current knowledge and connections.

I don't mean to imply your life is over if you graduate during a downturn but you can easily end up derailed and with a potential hit to your earnings going forward.

I graduated with my Comp Sci degree in 2003ish, and my life was awful for at least 5 years post-graduation. I know it wasn't just me too.

(This is also because of where I graduated, and the fact that I didn't feel comfortable moving to the US post-9-11)

I graduated 2012. The only people hiring were institutions that kicked off the 2008 recession.

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