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Comment by hcks | Hacker News Reader

Metaculus currently gives 165 months with a very flat distribution https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13532/sbf-prison-sentenc...

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(After looking at the prediction), 15 years feels very reasonable. Like, it's taking away the rest of the prime of his life, which is terrible, but there's still light at the end of the tunnel.

> it's taking away the rest of the prime of his life

Oh man, that hurts, ha! In 15 years he'll still be younger than I am today. I know I'm old, but still, ouch.

Just be glad you didn’t spend those years in a prison cell :-D

:D sorry you had to hear it from me

The future is now, old man!

It really doesn't. Think of all the lives he has ruined. He should rot in prison.

SBF isn't Madoff. He didn't leave a streak of bereft retirees in his wake. Woe to the hedge funds and HFT firms that lost money to SBF.

FTX was just a particularly fetid pool in a massive swamp of an industry.

This isn't to say he shouldn't get a decent chunk of prison time.

> SBF isn't Madoff. He didn't leave a streak of bereft retirees in his wake

FWIW, and I don't know whether to be cynical or impressed by this, but claims ($19.5BB) against Madoff's fraud have been largely restituted ($14.6BB, ~75%).

There were individual human investors in both Madoff and FTX. There were also wealth funds and the absurdly rich in both.

But as it stands today, FTX may have done more harm to humans than Madoff.

> He didn't leave a streak of bereft retirees in his wake.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/celsius-b...

https://fortune.com/2022/06/14/celsius-freezes-assets-big-ca...

Where did the money come from?

Of course EAs are now betting on their messiah's prison sentence.

I associate prediction markets with libertarian economists, EAs just happen to like them too.

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