Leaving it overnight or somewhere out of the way, though... yeah, a different story. Threat model, as you described.
Also factor in the age and value of the bike. You can further reduce the chances of your bike being stolen by custom-painting it.
I come out of work and my bike is gone. There is a piece of the lock on the ground and you can see they used an angle grinder to cut it. I took the piece inside to the desk and showed the officer who took my report and agreed it was definitely an angle grinder.
AN ANGLE GRINDER AT THE LITERAL DOOR OF THE POLICE DEPARTMENT. WTF.
I got a call from the cops three days later. Apparently a cop did see dude grinding my lock off and stopped him as he was leaving and grabbed my bike and put it in storage at the police department. There was just a communication breakdown.
So, happy ending. But still, WTF?