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Comment by alephnerd | Hacker News Reader

I can't read Serbian so I don't have as deep an understanding of internal structures, but I would assume that enough powerful people within Serbia would be hurt economically by warmongering, and Vucic has nowhere near the level of control that Putin or even Erdogan has. I'd assume a coup would happen, similar to what happened in Egypt, Portugal in the 70s, or Greece in the 70s

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While wishing you are right, I honestly doubt it. I think the situation is more like in Russia, where the loyalty to Putin is absolute and the powerful people try to make do in whatever situation he throws on them.

Don't forget, this isn't Vučić's first rodeo. He was already a part of the government that plunged the country in war against NATO back in 1999. He already proved he's willing to do it.

Very true. Though he must have personally known Slobodan Milošević, who died after 6 years of UN detention.

Not even necessarily a coup and no need to look to far away. In 1999, Serbian troupes eventually accepted to leave Kosovo because the economic elites was being hurt by NATO bombardment of critical infrastructures [1].

[1]: https://nitter.net/mewalters101/status/1579936624703868928#m

Economic damage is not necessarily bad if it’ll hurt your political opponents. Suddenly, the guy who doesn’t have a good grip like Putin has a pretty decent one. In a very short amount of time.

It hurts everyone when 70-75% of all trade happens with NATO+ members - countries that Serbia would directly be in a state of war with if they enter Kosovo and break the Kumanova Agreement.

Even Russia never had that level of dependency on NATO+ trade partners before 2022 or before 2014.

Russian trade volume was 57% NATO members before the war, and close to 80 if you count Western allies.

I'm just counting NATO, EU, and Montenegro. 70-75% of all trade in Serbia was from NATO, EU, and Montenegro, which is still significant.

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