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Comment by SteveNuts | Hacker News Reader

Microsoft seems to be very confused on how to monetize Windows (for end user computing at least). It seems like they jump back and forth between:

"Do we include ads?"

"Sell telemetry data?"

"Try to force users to use our browser/search engine to generate ad impressions?"

"Should we just make the whole thing free?"

Personally, I wish they'd just make home editions free as in beer, make it up by charging businesses the CAL bullshit and office/o365 licenses. They need to develop and support those things anyways, home user revenue must be a drop in the bucket compared to Azure/O365. Especially since OEM PC/laptop purchases generate even less revenue for the Windows license included.

Doing so would also make sure your user base is familiar with using Windows on their home devices and carry that over to business use cases. Otherwise tablets not running Windows will continue to eat their lunch.

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The purpose of this announcement is to muddle the search for "microsoft key," since for some reason it is finally making the news how catastrophic the Microsoft key breach was. It is similar to https://gizmodo.com/did-boris-johnson-ramble-about-model-bus... .

I don't believe you, but I also can't unsee it.

We will soon BREACH the ability of users to use certain KEYs to activate windows. Use of these KEYs is a BREACH of our terms of service which we consider KEY to user SECURITY.

The original Microsoft announcement didn't even use the word key once though, so I'm doubtful

What key breach?

Email signing key https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/security/blog/2023/07/14/ana...

I find the argument completely unconvincing though. That two things which regularly happen are aligned in the news cycle is not reasoning, let alone something so certain to state as if it could only be fact.

Except it's so common it's literally a marketed service of PR firms. This isn't a conspiracy, it's something you can legally buy on the open market. Any company with more than a hundred people should be assumed to at least have conversations with an "image management" consultancy, and bigger/richer companies should be assumed to have an entire team either internally or contracted full time.

It is a conspiracy (a conspiracy actually requires it be possible to do in the first place as conspiracy doesn't mean "crazy impossible thing that can't happen"), but that's complexly beside the point I'm making and the distraction it provides is expressly why I didn't say the issue with the reasoning was it's a conspiracy.

Even if we assume with 100% certainty Microsoft was/is actively interested in engage in a conspiracy to muddy news around "Microsoft keys" they know they don't actually need to bother with all that simply because "Microsoft keys" are already a regular news subject - without hiring a PR firm or actively pushing the news. And this is all besides the points of arguing whether the key signing news is "just now" blowing up in order to even make the two events seem to align.

Besides, the truth of "few reading the news actually give a shit about understanding email security keys but anything about free ways to activate Windows changing regularly makes a more popular story" is far more interesting anyways because no amount of wishing the problem was actually a few PR people at $EvilCorp controlling the media instead of people simply not caring will ever explain why the email news story never got to the same popularity in the months and updates (and following month) since it has been out there.

Microsoft have no idea what they are doing. They just throw poo at everything and keep what sticks.

Everything is however, still covered in poo.

In all fairness though they do a much better job than Google. Azure certainly is a gold mine.

> Azure certainly is a gold mine.

I sometimes dream about Microsoft selling Windows. (Because they see it as cost center and make money elsewhere... Or whatever its a dream ok.) It gets picked up by a smoll private company that's just in the business of making a good OS. teary eyes

> OEM PC/laptop purchases generate even less revenue for the Windows license included

286 million PCs shipped in 2022. [1] Subtract 20% for Apple [2] and Linux, multiply by the commonly quoted $50 average OEM license fee [3][4] and you get $11+ billion. Not exactly peanuts.

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/273495/global-shipments-...

[2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/576473/united-states-qua...

[3] https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-it-cost-OEM-manufacturer...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundling_of_Microsoft_Windows#...

I keep wondering lately what would happen if/when ReactOS becomes mature enough to be usable beyond curious experimentation. For the first time in a long while Microsoft will have to compete with something that has a switching cost close to zero and is free and doesn't do any of the telemetry and dark patterns and other stuff to appease the stakeholders.

ReactOS's mere existence doesn't mean it is actually competing in a meaningful way. People use Windows on PCs because it is what is preinstalled from OEMs, not because they made a conscious decision to choose the OS.

https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide...

If you want to replace MacOS or Windows dominance, you don't need a better OS. You need an OS that is preinstalled on hardware that people buy.

Which is nearly impossible to do unless you also own the hardware. It's allegedly one reason BeOS failed, OEMs almost unanimously refused to offer it on their hardware because of the threat of losing their Windows licenses. There was a pretty big lawsuit about it that ended with a settlement and MS not admitting anything.

Do you think that’s likely to ever actually happen? It has had well over twenty years and isn’t there yet.

I think SteamOS has more traction and momentum, it seems at least in my family and friend group most people just use a tablet (iPad, almost exclusively) for leisure computing and not a laptop anymore.

So, that leaves pretty much gamers as a heavy Windows home userbase.

I'm sure there's more to the story, those are just my observations of my social circle.

I am glad you used leisure computing an not working. I never experienced anyone doing serious creative work in the sense of creating something on a tablet.

In essence they are devices to give your personal data to a third party.

>I never experienced anyone doing serious creative work in the sense of creating something on a tablet.

You must not know many illustrators, which is understandable, but I’m not sure I follow the overall point. Are you saying home users still need something to replace Windows for non leisure computing?

Wine is also a very old project but only somewhat recently has it become practical and started being taken seriously.

ReactOS is more complex than that, because they can't take any of the shortcuts Wine did, AND they have to implement a kernel that mimics the Windows NT kernel in enough detail so Windows drivers could run unmodified. But then they have the benefit that once there is enough compatibility, ReactOS will be able to run on a vast number of hardware configurations, taking full advantage of said hardware. Unlike Haiku — which still doesn't support any form of video acceleration for example.

The age of ReactOS is less relevant than the development velocity; they're chasing a moving target, albeit with the advantage of only needing to implement the features that end users and third-party software actually need.

IMO win32 isn't much of a moving target any more. Microsoft stopped significantly evolving it around after Windows 7, instead switching to their modern .net-based stuff like UWP.

ReactOS as a full-time replacement for Windows would probably have to implement UWP eventually, too. But I do think Microsoft's velocity of adding useful, desirable features has been slowing down, so it's more plausible for Wine and ReactOS to catch up in the ways that matter.

Honest question, is there any important UWP software? I mostly see it as a gimmick that very few people outside of Microsoft take seriously.

From what I’ve seen the newer UWP descendant WinUI/Windows App SDK is starting to get some traction. Apple uses it for some of its newer Windows software (beta Apple Music client among others), presumably because they want their apps to look at home on modern Windows with the newer more pretty UI widgets. Some indie app devs also use it, and MS has transitioned Power Tools to it.

> The age of ReactOS is less relevant than the development velocity

Sure, so what's the development velocity now and did it increase recently? And for when is an actual usable version planned? Alongside GNU Hurd?

There's no organized effort to roll out ReactOS as a first party supported OS on real hardware. I could imagine a future where the EU funds its development to break away from foreign-owned OSes but that's a long shot and they'd probably be more effective just funding development for the Linux based ecosystem.

If it ever comes close to that the Federal government will ban it. They aren't going to run a Russian funded and built OS on government computers, OSS or not.

> "I keep wondering lately what would happen if/when ReactOS becomes mature enough to be usable beyond curious experimentation."

Nothing. ReactOS is a Windows XP / Windows Server 2003 implementation and just about nobody is making Windows XP compatible drivers for current hardware.

they will have GUI setup soon

https://reactos.org/project-news/hermes-belusca-hired-full-t...

You already can use Windows for free.

It has very few restrictions if you don't activate, including being unable to change the background image in settings (but you can do it other ways trivially) and it has a watermark that indicates it hasn't been activated yet (someone has probably already figured out how to remove that). You get updates and there is no nag screen that constantly bothers you.

https://www.howtogeek.com/244678/you-dont-need-a-product-key...

> background image in settings (but you can do it other ways trivially

Just select a picture file in the Explorer (or a picture in the most browsers), right click, set as desktop wallpaper. Yes, the only thing blocked is the official settings menu.

> watermark that indicates it hasn't been activated yet (someone has probably already figured out how to remove that

Which is quite amusing because it's really easier to install non-home version and use KMS activation than patch (and maintain) the anti-watermark patches.

Still, there is a difference between running an illegal copy and legal and free copy.

Unlicensed Windows also doesn’t let you turn on dark mode which is irritating with how blindingly bright modern light mode UI designs have been ever since “flat and square” became the dominant UI design in Windows 8. I wish the more middle-colored light mode designs of the past would return.

Can you receive updates through windows update officially? I remember that used to be locked down without registration

The non-activated OS will continue to receive major updates including updates related to security. Microsoft isn't well served to have a lot of non-activated copies out there acting as at-risk security zombies.

Yes, you can. I'm less sure about "receiving updates for other ms products", but I never really knew what that did anyway.

That would be an introduction to antitrust similar to Google experiencing it with making Android free.

Continuing that thought, a free OS would hurt other (free) OS's, further hurting competition.

It wouldn't. You can already download and use Windows for free (without activating the product). Consumers, broadly, don't seem to be aware of this however and the vast majority of consumer PC builds are sold through large builders that have Windows install deals with Microsoft (so there's no point for most people to use a non-activated copy of Windows).

Afaik Google gets a fee from the OEM for the play store/Google Apps.

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