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Comment by throwawaaarrgh | Hacker News Reader

It's gonna be hilarious when all the new EV buyers find out about the broken chargers and start fighting over the few that work (chargers are backed up against a wall so "waiting in line" doesn't work). My prediction is we'll see massive drops in car trips due to range anxiety. Will be interesting to see the second and third order effects. Maybe public transit will make a comeback, and automakers will stay afloat with more government handouts trying to juice an EV revolution.

Cities are gonna be littered with aging cars in a few years since there are virtually no chargers in cities with street parking. Conversely, no mechanics in the country know how to work on EVs. EVs only work in the suburbs.

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> Conversely, no mechanics in the country know how to work on EVs. EVs only work in the suburbs.

I’m so glad you said this. No one understands how big an issue this is. They only have to look at historical examples like how motor vehicles failed to establish as a market because no carriage workers knew how to work on engines

And the funny thing is I bet ICE repair and maintenance skills are a lot more transferrable to BEVs than carriage -> ICE. Most shops have already been servicing hybrids for 20 years now.

It really bothers me when people point to perfectly solvable problems as reasons why we can't have electric cars.

A dead battery cell is unfixable. At best, you have a few dead cells and a mechanic can replace them. But if replacement cells can't be found, or too many cells have died, then it is a full battery pack replacement. This is going to be a big problem for old BEVs.

I can’t tell if you’re trolling or not. I do hope you realise old cars often have their entire engine replaced, right?

That’s also an expensive repair job, but it hasn’t stopped the adoption of ICE vehicles.

Nobody is getting their ICE engine replaced unless they tuned it and blew it up or never changed their oil.

Just anecdotal but: I bought a new European suv in 2017 drove 68,000 miles, very very gently. Turbo blew and sent debris into the engine, engine lost compression, needs full replacement, dealer quoted $35,000 job. Car was 6 years old, just out of warranty, was 60k new.

Now I drive an EV.

An ICE replacement is usually just a few thousand dollars. And that's the worse case scenario. Well maintained ICE cars can last for decades. A mandatory, $10-20k battery replacement for every BEV at some point in its lifetime is a big problem.

A refurbished battery pack costs about the same as an engine replacement.

Consumeraffairs review of battery pack replacement costs (https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/ev-battery-replac...) implies that this costs $13k-$17k, so much more than engine replacements for old cars, as long as we're talking about battery packs which have appropriate capacity for full EV, not a hybrid or simply putting in a much smaller capacity than originally installed.

Very poor visibility on how long a refurbished battery pack would last.

This is patently horseshit.

I know mechanics, they have been on EV training courses. The dealerships clearly have trained mechanics working on the EVs they've been selling for years.

I live in the countryside, I see plenty of EVs. Range anxiety is only for people doing long distance 200+ mile journeys every day, as those that commute in the suburbs day to day have the common (and financial) sense to charge at home and leave every morning with a 'full tank'

Judging from your prose, admittedly, I suspect you are North American and as such have a distinctly different worldview from mine.

Obviously there is a difference whether someone's "countryside" implies that the closest city is 50 or 500 miles away.

For an EV car, the vast majority of work needed has no relation to the drivetrain (which is relatively low-maintenance on an EV), so it doesn't really matter if half of mechanics don't know how to work on EVs; fixing suspension or doing bodywork doesn't change.

A surprising number of mechanics will refuse to work on any car with a battery that has more than 12 volts, regardless of the problem.

Found that out trying to get rotors replaced on a Prius.

I think the big oof repair with used EV is the inevitable battery replacement. That can't be cheap, especially for a used car.

“inevitable”? hardly. how many first-year Leafs are out there on the original battery? a lot, i’d reckon most. how many dead Leafs are out there which were totalled because of needing a new battery? certainly less than those which were totalled due to rust, collision, etc., ie the things that kill gas cars too.

Thing is, first-year Leaf really isn't an old car.

Outside of the richest countries there are whole communities who'd never buy a new car, because the car they can afford to buy is a much-used cheap car that's the same age as the first-year Leaf is now; the rich countries/communities drive the first 10 years of a car, buy a new car, and the used car gets sold in poorer areas where most people don't ever buy new cars, because even the entry level new cars are like twice the cost they would afford. The ICE market provides a significant quantity of such used cars, which are cheap because of the wear and tear of being 10-15 years old but are still likely to be usable for a very long time if you maintain them properly.

Are 15 year old Leafs a comparable alternative to 15 year old ICE Hondas? If after the EV revolution buying a 15 year old car ceases to be an affordable option because it will need an unreasonably expensive replacement (compared to the value of such an old car) to be usable for 10 more years, then that's a major societal change in the affordability of transport.

So you imply refurbishing a car battery pack will be unreasonably expensive? Why?

And real world data does not suggest that will be needed at all. Sure there are outliers like someone damaging battery by doing only supercharging but that's exception like not changing oil in ICE.

Batteries cost a significant fraction of a new EV cost (something like 30%) - in the context of populations who want/need vehicles which are affordable because they're used for 10-15 years and should cost a fraction of what a new vehicle costs, that's unreasonably expensive; that replacement costs more than that whole used car should cost.

For example, the first reasonable site I googled for replacement costs (https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/ev-battery-replac...) asserts that the battery replacement for a Leaf would cost on average $17,657 - but I'm talking about a target audience who currently would buy a $10,000 car and expect to use it for many more years; current ICE cars enable that, but if getting a usable range from a Leaf when they'll be 15-20 years old will require a replacement battery, that's not going to work out. The replacement batteries for full EVs (as opposed to hybrids with smaller capacity) are more expensive than even full engine replacements or full transmission replacements for old ICE cars, and even very old ICE cars usually don't need a full engine replacement but can work (with usable range!) with much cheaper repairs.

In essence, my doubts are about the longevity of EV cars - what proportion of EVs will be usable/used when they will be 15, 20 or 25 years old (or after 100k / 200k miles), and how that compares to the same metric for the current ICE cars; a downgrade there won't be a big difference for the relatively wealthy buyers of new cars now, but it can be a kick in the balls for the poorer communities in a few decades if the affordable used (and I mean significantly used, not those which were just leased for a few years) cars cease to exist.

There's also a huge population of people who pay even less for a car, like around $5k or less still. Go to the LA county craigslist, average car is $13k but the largest bin by far on the pricing histogram is the sub 5k bin. You set the price interval to be between $2-$5k you get about 2600 ads. You set it at 3k and you still get about 1500 ads, and these are "true" ads with that $2 start cutting off the people who don't list prices on more expensive cars.

You assume that everything will cost exactly as much as now. While the trends are clear, batteries keep getting cheaper and gas more expensive. Which is inevitable when production shrinks. And expensive gas is even bigger "kick in the balls".

The car may be maintained properly, but I see problem getting batteries and other components. When old batteries are no longer being made, the car becomes useless. Similarly, when you cannot get the electric and electronic components, the car is heading for a scrap yard. I'd love to hear from someone who is closer to the matter and knows is third-party battery or electronic component replacements for old EVs are a thing?

Not sure about leafs, but with teslas the batteries are only warrantied for 8 years and 150k miles. If you live somewhere with winters it probably diminishes a lot faster. With a gas car there are things you have to do around this mileage too e.g. timing belt and water pump but thats a fix thats an order of magnitude cheaper than an ev battery replacement.

Tesla's warranty also guarantees 70% minimum of original battery life. That is similar to the degradation you'll see in a gas car. My 10 year old Mazda has lost about 12% of its fuel economy from new and it's never had engine trouble. Low income people will probably continue to buy used cars like they do now.

Well if EV battery prices continue to decline at a similar rate - and there’s no reason not to expect this - then in 8-10 years the cost of the batteries is going to be about ¼ of today’s cost. So it doesn’t really seem like it will be such a burden.

Are the current replacement costs for batteries of 8-10 year old cars 1/4 of the cost that they used to be? The part costs for replacing batteries on 2014 Teslas or Leafs seem to be far more than that (https://www.consumeraffairs.com/automotive/ev-battery-replac...).

Depends on the car. Nio's cars can swap the battery in 6 minutes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmWL1hZQmD0

It means you can have a battery subscription rather than buying the battery. A subscription keeps your battery new and also lets you swap between higher and lower capacity batteries as needed.

Nio has 70, 75, 100, and 150 kWh packs in the same physical pack dimensions:

https://cnevpost.com/2023/07/07/nio-user-manuals-include-150...

> there are virtually no chargers in cities with street parking

I suspect this will be relatively easy to build out. They installed them in my neighbourhood over a few weeks. There is already electricity supply to residential streets, so all that's required is installing chargers. Which can be quite simple if they're not fast chargers.

I've also seen people simply running extension cables out of their houses. Which isn't ideal, but it works.

I don’t want cities to build stupid EV charging crap everywhere. They could invest that in public transport instead. EVs have all the same social problems as cars.

Stupid charging crap is easy to do piecemeal. A bus line that only covers two blocks doesn't make sense. A bus line that only covers the major street doesn't help a lot of people. A public transit system that can get most people where they want to go is hugely expensive in time, money, and space, and can't replace the public roads + private car transit system until it's nearly complete.

As long as cars remain legal in cities, it seems worthwhile to put electric vehicle chargers in cities.

Switching to EV is an infrastructure problem just like public transport. Guess it’s doomed because it’s not driven by profit.

They can put in wireless charging. You won't know the difference:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AE1gaNO9nj0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IoPA0rq0yw

This depends strongly on the quality of the infrastructure that's already in place on your block.

I'd be concerned if a neighborhood block's electrical infrastructure is fragile enough where even 12kW shared across multiple chargers poses a hazard.

I don't like how these concerns only get raised about EVs and are seldom raised over appliances that utilize far greater power over longer periods of time like individual air conditioning units

> I'd be concerned if a neighborhood block's electrical infrastructure is fragile enough where even 12kW shared across multiple chargers poses a hazard.

The US power grid is run down to the point it's a regular contributor in wildfires. People make memes about how bad the situation is. There are numerous YouTube videos detailing just how old a lot of the equipment and lines are. Besides, the problem is the continuous load. An air conditioner doesn't run the pump continuously for hours, while a charging post constantly consumes peak load.

> I don't like how these concerns only get raised about EVs and are seldom raised over appliances that utilize far greater power over longer periods of time like individual air conditioning units

FWIW yes people are talking about air conditioning, and it's already a massive hassle for grid operators to balance loads when it's extremely hot as a result.

No matter what, electrical grids - and not just in the US - need a serious overhaul over the next few decades. Other than being generally old and poorly maintained, electric vehicles are just one issue... decentralized power generation, distributed battery storage, more demand for heat pumps (particularly in winter) and AC (in summer), the existing grid can't handle all that.

The average US driver commutes about 30 miles per day. At Tesla mileage that’s about 7.5KWh per day. Assume the car is parked and charging for 22 hours out of the day, that works out to a continuous consumption of 341W. Obviously these numbers are all averages, but over enough vehicles that’s roughly what we’re looking at.

You cannot generalize the entirety of the US electrical system. This baseless pessimism runs counter to having any productive discussion on the issue. Each region is run differently and it’s incorrect to assume the same issues in parts of the west coast apply to the Midwest, Northeast, or Mid-Atlantic.

While this may not be the case for all electric grid operators in the US but the one I am under has planned for increased electrical usage by electric vehicles, datacenters, and a move from natural gas.

So you should welcome EV owners dragging the utilities into 21st century, no? Who else can do it?

In my place in East London, quite a few lamposts are now (slow) charging points

> It's gonna be hilarious when all the new EV buyers find out about the broken chargers and start fighting over the few that work

No. Europe's charging infrastructure is much superior to North America's. And the EU has a plan to make it better still:

https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/new-energies/europe/article/f...

Meanwhile, Americans are already killing each other over EV charging:

https://electrek.co/2023/05/03/tesla-driver-dies-fatal-shoot...

It's a cultural thing.

Why would the availability of chargers remained unchanged?

> EVs only work in the suburbs.

Exactly. As long as you don't drive, and have lots of disposable income, EVs are great.

It’s funny how waiting times and availability of charging infrastructure are often give as a reason EVs will somehow fail, yet in the regional Australian town where I live, the constant long lines and very high cost for fuel at our very small local fuel station were a driver for me to get an EV.

It’s far easier to build an EV charging station than a fuel station, they can be installed just about anywhere, and they are only going to get faster and better with time.

I drive a lot, and don’t have much disposable income at the moment, and EVs are great.

Also an EV charging station only needs regular maintenance when things (sadly inevitably) break. Whereas a fuel station needs not just maintenance but also constant refueling, so trucks need to come out, which can be a looooong drive depending on how rural the station is.

At least in the US, those are almost exclusively problems for people who didn't buy a Tesla. Given the proliferation of NACS support, that will soon change to being a problem for noone.

Europe is completely different, but I get the feeling the charging infrastructure isn't so bad throughout most of Europe.

"Cities" is quite a broad category for your claims.

It is indeed. Cities are extremely diverse. But the majority of persons in the USA live in metro areas, and there is no simple method of providing power or billing for vehicle charging in all those locations. If it's an extension cord run out a window, that's quickly going to become a zoning issue. Actual physical chargers are not only more expensive to install, but fail often. I'm not even addressing the lack of generation and distribution capacity, because that's even more complex.

BEVs mirror the obsession with diesel cars in Europe in more than one way. It was just a partial solution with many of its own downsides. In diesel's case, the problems drove the abandonment of diesel, even though it made up more than 50% of car sales at one point. BEVs are headed in a similar direction.

At some point, the need for something new, whether it's e-fuels or hydrogen or whatever, will become undeniable. We simply won't be building millions of charging stations and place them at every parking spot. If adblue is inconvenient enough to stop diesel cars, then the charging problem will be even more fatal. We must have something that refuels like a conventional car, period.

A “charging station” is a 240V AC outlet with a few amps on it and an inexpensive digital controller for billing. Yeah it’ll cost money to build those, just like it cost money to install parking meters. People get hung up on the weirdest things.

It's part where 270 million people charge their EVs every day and the load on the grid that is the problem. Also, ripping up tens of millions of park spacings and install all of these charging stations is not easy either. It is certainly nothing like a parking meter.

Upgrading the grid is already baked into the cake. Given the rapid ocean temperature warming, surging heat waves and general acceleration of bad climate outcomes it isn’t like “do nothing and keep burning gas” is on the table. We either electrify, stop driving, or suffer increasingly calamitous environmental consequences that are much more economically dire than being forced to improve our grid.

As far as the idea that we can’t install AC wiring in public and private parking spaces, that isn’t even worth discussing. Do you know how much money it costs to build and maintain a parking space? At least chargers will come with a revenue stream that can be leveraged to pay for the construction.

That's a delusional viewpoint. "Doing nothing" is absolutely on the table. In fact, it is the most likely outcome for a very long time to come. Pretty soon, you will hear about geoengineering solutions. Whether you like it or not, it will be seen as the most realistic solution on the table, if not the only one.

This is mitigated with OpenADR and V2G technology. Consumers can set when they charge (or discharge) based on utility incentives. So its not like everyone goes home and charges their car at the same time..

People aren't going to put up with the grid taking power away from your car. If we fear battery life today, this will amplify that problem significantly.

The biggest problem with diesel is supposedly adblue inconvenience? Said who?

Other people in this thread have said that.

“Other” == one person at the top of the thread who probably also cannot handle the complexity of adding windshield fluid.

And several times as many replied they don't understand how that's the inconvenience :)

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