Frankly, Russia as a Chinese suzerainty might be one of the more productive alignments for the global economy, even if it isn’t great for America.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2021/12/05/caspian_r...!
Although it is usually ignored, geography is fundamental to understanding why nations act the way they do.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25135194-prisoners-of-ge...
Say Russia achieves is "geographic necessity" of conquering Ukraine (which I very much wish doesn't happen). What's beyond there? Romania is a mix of plains and mountains - so what, Russia gets to invade there? Poland is mostly flat and with few major obstacles (Vistula running south-north is probably the only major one - and a very topical one...). So then what - extend the "buffer zone" into Germany? And... Finland? And I mean, you can't trust these warmongering Swedes and Norwegian - remember the Vikings? Better pacify these guys too before it's too late.
It's not a logic anyone outside of Russia wants to entertain.
This is Russia's argument, but it is nonsense. Nobody would attack any Russian border, western or otherwise, because Russia has thousands of nuclear weapons. It's as simple as that.
The US is something of an outlier. Most countries maintain much smaller militaries. They have them on hand for a variety of purposes: disasters, foreign peacekeeping, border patrol, and keeping their hand in Just In Case.
NATO countries, for example, are supposed to keep militaries so that Russia doesn't get any ideas. Say, Wagner troops meander across the border into Poland. Russia clutches its pearls and says, "Oh, no, don't end the entire world by nuking us even though it's obvious that we ordered it." So troops would get sent... which is why it never actually happens.
How much military you need to achieve that is up for debate. The US often claims that other NATO countries need more, and that the European countries are relying on America to provide most of that deterrent. But the US is almost certainly providing way, way, way more deterrent than is needed -- more about national preening than serious consideration of needs.
Just in case of what? Nukes are the perfect defense and the only one you need you said it yourself. You think 4% of the GDP is wasted.
Nukes get MAD real fast. If their only weapon is a nuke, their bluff could easily be called.
Very few countries spend 4% of GDP on the military, and most of them are at war. Not even the US, which comes in at 3.5%. NATO countries are supposed to spend (IIRC) 2%, but most don't.
It's a 2% that they might like to have back, but militaries are pretty good make-work programs. Even Japan, whose constitution prevents it from having a military, still spends 1% on its military.
Do you have any scenario of how that would happen, so that Russia's invasion of Ukraine makes any sense as a preemptive move?
I mean goodness, can we just admire a cool boat for a second?
What? With this [1] comment? Look at the time stamps. (Do we know each other?)
> Don't you have anything at all nice to say about them?
About the current Russian state? No. It’s pathetic and broken, and I don’t see a way to fix it other than devolving it—functionally, not legally—to China.
About Russia as a culture, people and nation? Of course. Russian literature from the classics (Turgenev) to mid-century (Bulgakov) and modern, together with Soviet films, are among my favourite genres. I love the food. I adore the operas and music. And Russians’ sense of wit and humour is among the sharpest and funniest in the world. As a species also we’re eternally in the Soviet Union’s debt for their aerospace and medical advances, to say nothing of dealing the death blow to the Nazis at Leningrad.
Much of my bitterness towards Moscow stems from knowledge of the potential of Russia’s people that is being squandered, delayed or permanently destroyed, in service of delusions.
Totally misread you ;)
Why the USSR did not become a major industrial exporter has been the subject of some good historical studies. It's been a while, so I don't have any good references at hand, but I recall that the main problem was Soviet management policies. Companies had a very hard time implementing quality control, and the government was also reluctant to close obsolete plants, because their primary goal was to maintain full employment.
Also declining population and worsening education.
There is a statistically significant correlation between the level of corruption and economic growth:
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-rep...
Putin has dismantled most of the check and balances in the system. Nobody would invest in that country. Check Bill Browder's story on how they raided the Hermitage fund.
And with this useless war going on they're forced to buy arms from DPRK.
Claim without evidence. Let’s throw in a bit of whataboutism- have you seen how improbably good pelosi’s stock market trades are? Almost like she’s insider trading.
> Also declining population and worsening education.
Population seems to be more or less in line with the rest of the world, and likely better once you factor for immigration.
“In 2014 the Pearson/Economist Intelligence Unit rated Russia's education as the 8th-best in Europe and the 13th-best in the world”
“In 2016 the US company Bloomberg rated Russia's higher education as the third-best in the world”
I mean really. I get that we all have biases, but lying about such easily verifiable things is pathetic, even for the average anti-Russian propaganda shill.
Corruption data with sources: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/average-rating-of-corrupt...
About demographics check these: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Aging_of_Russia&u...
About education: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/pisa-score-of-the-worst-a...
Let's not cite "Bloomberg" as a good data source for this. It's not good enough.
The “demographic crisis” appears to be on par with, if not better than, what the vast majority of Asian and European countries are experiencing.
And are you seriously quoting “perceived corruption”?
That’s a subjective measure. It’s literally in the title.
Could you at least try instead of throwing random links that you probably haven’t even reviewed yourself? Because this is pathetic. I expect more rigorous research and effort from an HN reply.
Personally from hiring people and from my brothers 2 businesses there is a stagnation too. The government talks about "reforming" the universities to break with Bologna system with internationally recognized degrees - this won't help either. Additionally along with the reform and with all the sanctions it'll be harder to go to foreign universities for students. And don't forget all the "arrests" of prominent scientists: https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/11/27/88134-berut-lyud...
Population is declining and the war won't help with that either. It doesn't matter than in Japan it's worse, we're talking the number of people in active economic age going down. This is not good in the long term, who would work and pay pensions? Oil is a finite resource.
About the corruption, I can tell you many personal stories (tax authorities & fire department are one of the worst ones and if you try to build something without bribes it's impossible to get the paperwork done ), but this would be hearsay, not data. There are 2 global indices and both suffer from subjectivity. You can check the trends for direct foreign investments and capital outflows from Russia, especially after 2015. Russian ministers live like billionaires and fly their dogs to Europe in private jets (check the story of Shuvalov's dogs flights). I'm not aware of such gimmicks in the "morally bankrupt" western countries. You're correct that it's subjective, but it's subjectively better in Sweden and Germany than in Russia or Ukraine. If you can't provide a better metric your argument is even more subjective, because it's not aggregated from many people over the years (the trend should be correct even if the values are not).
So please provide links and data, not your "expectations". And do you live in Russia and have personal experience as I do to have a better subjective perspective?
Actually things started going south for the Russian economy in 2010-2014 when both US oil companies and Saudi Arabia started pumping out oil as no tomorrow.
The last batch of such manufacturing apprentices went through in the mid-eighties. They're just about all gone from the workplace.