Similarly, most consumer devices have a few zero-days each year, if not more, so if you really want to decrypt someone's stuff, you just need to wait a few months.
I think that both your explanations are probably incorrect though. It's a bit of "neither" in this case.
They continue to backdoor all sorts of stuff (they recently were marketing and selling backdoored "secure" cell phones to crooks), and most chains of trust are weak enough in practice.