If the owner watches CT logs they will know about it (and you may need to jump through some more hoops once the target tries to renew their cert), but you get a lot of info in the meantime.
If the owner watches CT logs they will know about it (and you may need to jump through some more hoops once the target tries to renew their cert), but you get a lot of info in the meantime.
However, even with the full MITM here, this attack assumes that the attacker can proxy plaintext to the host. I'm not aware of many sites that allow sensitive actions (e.g. logging in) over HTTP anymore.
(And, as you note, this is detectable via CT. But it's fair to point out that many/most smaller operators probably aren't bothering to monitor public CT logs for unexpected issuances.)
Also, what threat model does SSL protect against that doesn’t involve an attacker in control of a hop in the path between the client and the server?
Yes, assuming the target has HTTPS. The context I originally assumed was one where the target doesn’t yet have a certificate and is using ACME to obtain one.
Separate from that, I agree that an attacker with the ability to demonstrate domain control can subvert issuance in a way that only CT, stapling, and other “post hoc” methods can detect.