Unity's Self-Combustion Engine
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This right here is the most notable part of the article, and it is entirely correct - it has been for years. Venture capital is fine to use for actual ventures, to create new markets or hell, to break into a market with entrenched powers... but when it is used on a long time purely to undercut and destroy legitimate prior businesses (taxis/Uber, hotels/AirBnB, game engines/Unity), authorities should step in.
It's time to revive anti-trust, anti-dumping and other anti-predatory politics.
As a seattlite who got tired of hunting for a building that still had a street number just to get a cab on 5th and Jackson or what ever I'm glad uber killed taxis
It had an app. It was like Uber, but worse in every way you can possibly imagine and outrageously priced.
I don't like an Uber monopoly either, but it doesn't mean the status quo was better before.
It would be like if no pizza place had mobile ordering and a new one started that had it; that was the killer feature.
Everything else (I personally believe) was hyped up by Uber so that the taxis wouldn't realize what the real competitor was until too late.
Now there may be taxi hailing apps, but nobody knows the name of them, and they're different for every city.
I don't know if there are many other options for mobile, but for XR (in this phase where UX norms are being hashed out), I really hope that people look beyond the two, and even dark horse Apple, to what Snap is doing. Even further: look at what people are doing with Dreams on the PS4/PS5 (https://twitter.com/MartinNebelong).
Part of why this hurts is that we let ourselves be taken in by a singular platform... again. Maybe standards with plenty of authoring options instead of cottage industries, next time.
We live in very interesting times while all this unravels.
For what it's worth, I'd classify true open source as the only exception to anti-dumping laws. If you want to burn money to fuck over everyone else, give up your competitive advantage.
It can when the competitors are dead, and the patron yanks all funding and support from the project.
I can't imagine trying to prove that in court though.
There is no other possible conclusion to draw, except that the taxi industry had it coming.
Fast-forward to today. The venture capital has long since run out. Taking an Uber costs at least as much as the taxis ever did. Yet, do you foresee any way for the taxi industry to make a comeback, except by holding the rest of us at gunpoint?
It's like picking up food at a restaurant vs some random guys house: technically they're both strangers, there's no guarantee the restaurant is clean either... but only one is a stranger to serving customers food.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/nyregion/nyc-taxis-medall...
> Instead of lending directly, the big banks worked through powerful industry players. They enlisted large fleet owners and brokers — especially Neil Greenbaum, Richard Chipman, Savas Konstantinides, Roman Sapino and Basil Messados — to use the banks’ money to lend to medallion buyers. In return, the owners and brokers received a cut of the monthly payments and sometimes an additional fee.
The big players knew what was happening, they exploited individual drivers to quickly offload their liability. They weren't directly exposing themselves to the risk.
When prices collapsed PE swooped in and bought them outright.
https://slate.com/business/2012/06/taxi-medallions-how-new-y...
https://www.nyc.gov/site/tlc/businesses/brokers.page
Brokers can't rent: only "leasing" (on an asset they didn't own) and financing both with regular payments, an interest rate, and forfeiture if you don't pay in time, just like a mortgage.
But then, the biggest issue being solved wasn't price it was availability. You could call for a Taxi at a craft-beer pub in Texas in 2010 and it was a crap shoot the thing ever arrived or if it did maybe an hour later.
Uber used VC money to heavily undercut the taxi rates, heavily inflate driver pay and decided to speedrun breaking as many laws as possible
As for getting into strangers’ cars, getting in a taxi is no different.
Do you think Uber was able to become as ubiquitous as it is if it didn’t heavily subsidize both sides of the equation and abide by the laws?
I doubt it.
Like you aptly describe now the fares as on par if not more than taxis, because now that they’ve attained dominance over the market by burning VC money, they can squeeze the customers and drivers alike. I’m not even sure if they’re turning a profit yet.
Uber recorded its first ever operating profit last quarter:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2023/08/02/uber-just-report...
Iirc Uber had some creative accounting practices in the past offsetting loses from one quarter to another, and making a single quarter look good.
Lyft still exists. To say nothing of local upstarts, like Revel in New York.
Since the taxi industry is far from dead in a whole lot of places, absolutely. In my city, taxis offer a superior experience to ride-sharing companies and they're doing just fine. Uber and Lyft aren't grabbing much market share from them. I've been in many other cities where the story is the same.
Also, this entire generation has no problems speaking about what make them successful, writing books/blogs about business, being keynote speakers etc when they would never be able to build a single business without massive financing. This is changing American entrepreneurship for the worse - in the past, the stories used to be all about someone starting a small business with no or limited seed money and slowly building an empire from scratch.
Everything is so exceptionally complex these days I just don't think it's feasible to bootstrap an innovative business from your garage.
Business investments are now overwhelmingly software; it doesn't take massive infusions of capital to make your business more efficient, because efficiency gains are achieved through acquiring a copy of an infinite resource -- software.
Sure software vendors can create artificial scarcity through licensing fees, but competitive market pressures will keep those down, and the floor of software fees is very low. As a result there has been less demand for money than there has been in the past. Hence lower interest rates. (Aging populations and slowing population growth also drive interest rates down.)
In other words, cheap money is an implication of the software-driven world we live in, not some sort of moral failing. It's not the result of policymakers doing something with punchbowls to prop up governments or whatever dumb metaphor gets thrown around.
- Unity itself can hire dark botnets to beef up their profits at any time
- game developers need to start selling with the caveat "5 re-installs included" and of course you change the price to over-sell how many installs the average person does
- game developers are now incentivized to make huge huge huge game downloads for no good reason other than to make people think twice about uninstalling and reinstalling later since it takes so long
- steam and game distribution platforms now need to start limiting re-installs and downloads for everyone, more complexity, more hassle, more bugs
- everyone needs to start running whitelist firewalls again, since automatic private data exfiltration is getting so out of control we need to block all internet access by default now
We can thank the heavens for Steam to murder that in its crib and we can hope they, still privately owned, won’t be tempted by the ultimate sin here.
As a game developer I would be very wary about signing such a contract as I'm sure these metrics can be easily gamed, so anyone with enough malicious intent could probably install-bomb my game and rack up large charges for me, and in the end I would be responsible for proving that those installs were malicious (which I imagine could be quite difficult).
Pay-per-install seems like a really bad way to charge dev costumers by. E.g. a nice long lived game will be charged way more than shovelware, due to users reinstalling when they buy new machines.
That's absurd.
Not that they even seem to know at this point how will the install be even tracked....
Quite simply, it's a completely unbounded cost for an indefinite amount of time.
It is fucking absurd.
Presumably pretty much all developers already do that (F2P games are filled to the brim with analytics) and paid game developers can use the number of purchases as a proxy (and presumably also end up paying for every install of a pirated version..).
I still don't quite understand how is this legal in Europe for instance? Mandatory telemetry which neither the developer or end use can disable and which phones private user data to a third party (outside the EU presumably) which is not necessary for the product to function must surely be illegal?
If so Unity's management can't be that stupid to now know this?
How is it easier to measure? Bundles, sales, re-installs, charity events, Game Pass... There are a million ways to install a game.
at least on windows.
The way they calculate the installs is not base on that, well unless you enabled Unity Analytics of course, but that's not the case on every games and they are going for every games ever made by their engine.
They backtracked.
https://www.axios.com/2023/09/13/unity-runtime-fee-policy-ma...
> After initially telling Axios earlier Tuesday that a player installing a game, deleting it and installing it again would result in multiple fees, Unity's Whitten told Axios that the company would actually only charge for an initial installation. (A spokesperson told Axios that Unity had "regrouped" to discuss the issue.)
This is an important distiction.
Worse, apparently reinstalling a game also charges the developer.
There is so much wrong here:
- “Trust us we figured our install measurements” is insane. We all worked on this for decades, it’s a dilemma with multiple axes, one being piracy.
- Everyone in games for a decade or so has been in a company that’s been screwed by publishers or partners on sales. Developers embraced unique activation keys and master servers to stop publisher fraud at least as much as as an anti consumer piracy measure.
- The only tradeoff to install transparency is surveillance and tracking which trades off against piracy. Most developers are not interested in pushing boundaries there.
Trust us with a company that now has broken every single promise they have made… I don’t think so
Do you have faith they know to monetize an open source engine? Wouldn't that actually expedite the fall in their case?
They should just cap their take at "up to 5% rev share". At least at that point there's no worry about runaway costs.
As many have discovered throughout the years, Companies don't need "trust" to be profitable
Ubisoft has been a laughing stock for a decade, EA still holds the record for lowest rated reddit comment (feel your pride and accomplishment), and "it just works" in Bethesda world
Unity's clients aren't gamers, they're businesses
you'd have to be insane to build a business on unity now
Businesses and even solo developers look at their options much more closely. They aren't buying a few hours of fun, they are choosing the vector for their livelihood.
The average person either doesn't know who they are or recognises them as the company that made some prior game they enjoy.
You know the game will run like ^$^@% for a while, if not for good.. You know the modders will fix it, and smart folks will wait for the sales on their titles, because by the time they go on sale, they'll be well supported by mods, and less buggy.
So.. I'd keep them clear of the other sleazoids ;).
- The majority of BGS players plays without the unnofficial patch, much less other mods to fix the game.
- In exchange for all that I feel you got masterful worldbuilding and some gem side quests to discover, but I think that factor is diminishing over time. The writing in Starfield, in particular, is really bad, and it doesn't seem like the little gems are sprinkled with enough frequency to make up for it. And there is no excuse of "this was a rushed lemon MMO side project" like 76, Starfield is supposed to be BGS at their best.
- This kind of exchange is not unique anymore, as BGS is no longer the only giga action RPG on the block. You could say the same thing about ME Andromeda and Asscreed Odyssey, for instance, but I feel the filler/reward ratio is much higher in those games.
Once again, it is knowing what you are buying into to.
I held off on Starfield. After hearing about some of the clusterfsck that the development had been... I hope it has a redemption arc.
The problem for unity is that it costs a ton of money to develop the engine and not enough people pay them for it. Open sourcing the engine does not help with that problem and might even make it worse.
(edit: and iOS! Lol I always forget mobile gaming is a thing. Facepalm.)
I can see them make it apple exclusive and more integrated to the apple ecosystem though.
They might not kill off cross-platform support this time, though. Today's Apple maintains true native (not just "port half of the Mac/iOS userland" native) Android and Windows apps.
I'm pretty sure the Blizivison acquisition went through in both the US and EU. Microsoft's not really a huge player in gaming; Xbox and Windows combined are still tiny compared to the other consoles and mobile platforms. And if they use a similar playbook like they did with the acquisition (promising cross platform compatibility for a decade or so), they honestly wouldn't be the worst stewards.
Today's Microsoft is kinda slow and boring, but that's probably the kind of business you want managing a game engine. Reliable, stable to the point of being stale, but reliable. No sudden surprises that give you 3 months to reinvent your last five years of work.
(I think there are a few on Apple Arcade, but I always assumed those were sponsored exclusives?)
As far as bigger studios go, Bungie was a Mac studio until Microsoft scooped them up to turn Halo Xbox-exclusive instead.
But if you are talking OSX exclusive, yeah, that would be kinda insane.
But they already have their own Source game engine so no point in them doing that.
The original changes essentially shut me down.
Yesterday, I just found out Unity has changed their definition to exempt WebGL games: a partial relief. I have little confidence Unity will stick to their plans.
In between I evaluated all the alternatives to Unity specifically about WebGL players.
unfortunately WebGL is either impossible or crippled in other engines, frameworks. Further, other engines are like MS Paint versus Unity who would be Adobe Creative Cloud.
Here is my WebGL summary:
Godot uses Node trees instead of Entity Component. Porting Unity scripts almost impossible because of this amongst other reasons. Attempts to weld Entity Component only supported on Godot 4 but….
Godot 4+ WebGL does not work on Mac with no plans to change. Godot is waiting for Chrome to fix something, no comment on Safari, FF, others. One forum poster doing Godot WebGL export noticed that the Empty Scene WebGL export of Godot is 17MB versus 4MB for Unity.
Unreal 5 does not export to WebGL. However you can use UE 4
UE4 WebGL is not much discussed and the pieces you can find imply the output size, and thus customer download time, is significantly larger than Unity’s
Stride does not export to WebGL.
So UE4 seemed the only other option
Also, the Unity Asset store has so many great assets for me to use.
And 3D tools like PlayCanvas are browser based for their editor too. Desktop apps still have a massive edge in productivity.
Unity has Timeline, Cinemachine, Particle System editors which make detailed tasks possible.
Unity takes care of format shifting your assets into a compatible format, saving oodles of time.
And C# is a superior language to Javascript (never use == use ===). Visual Studio a better IDE than debug in browser
they deserve to get some payment?
Under the old system as soon as I got to $100k revenue all the developers needed a Pro license at roughly €1900 per annum.
Unity editor is so crashy, bloated, slow and unreliable tho. Waiting for c# to compile drives me nuts.
A webgl game making > $1m in revenue per year? Which one?
We strip out a ton of the code in Godot using a "custom modules" file and the .wasm export is much smaller. I think it's ~4mb actually.
You should look at defold or play canvas. And Godot 3, compiled from source, with just the modules you need.
So in practice it's probably going to be fixed by the time a new game is released, and otherwise you can tell users to start the browser with the proper command line, or contribute a workaround to Godot yourself.
This is incredible. They've given themselves the right to demand any amount of money as determined by them alone.
Here is an example of one of their mobile ad products: https://www.is.com/mobile-advertising-sdk/
[1]: https://investors.unity.com/news/news-details/2022/Unity-Ann...
The Unity board apparently. The stuff that comes out of this guys mouth inspires confidence.. In shorting the company. How have they not replaced him ages ago?
This is, quite literally, pretty much every consumer-facing startup. Uber anyone?
As an aside, the very idea of "free markets" is a myth. Markets only function effectively with strong government. Period. Let's see how far anyone gets in a libertarian fairy land without courts.
ARM's IPO valuation is pretty much based on jacking up licensing fees too.
We need to get back to the idea that companies are vehicle for generating income without the endless expectation of growth at all costs.
This is not even close to a fair comparison.
Anyone know how a start up company can possibly finance such a gigantic debt?
This is not what HN/YC "taught" me...