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Comment by Ziggy_Zaggy | Hacker News Reader

Great points to consider.

Now consider viewing the Tic-Tac video footage (released by the Pentagon) along with with interview of the radar operator during that same mission and then the GIMBAL/GOFAST video footage (released by the Pentagon).

Finally, there is a CSPAN video where two former-fighter pilots and a former DoD intelligence director testified in front of Congress about these topics.

Then go down your list and see which of those 11 options fit the best.

Link - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentagon_UFO_videos

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> GIMBAL/GOFAST video footage

Regardless of whatever Navy personnel think or say, neither of these videos shows an object moving in an abnormal way. The objects in these videos have mundane trajectories which are easily explained by extant earth technology (balloon or drone n the case of GOFAST, and another airplane in the case of GIMBAL.)

There is NO evidence of aliens, alien technology or even advanced human technology in these videos.

The thing is the base rate probability that interstellar travelers got here from elsewhere in the galaxy, can either survive on our planet or brought enough with them to survive in space, have been here for decades and managed to never be concretely detected, exist at all as a form of life seemingly capable of understanding and communicating with us, building structures and traveling vessels similar to what we would use, even with roughly humanoid body morphology, is so low that virtually any other possible explanation, no matter how unlikely, is still more likely.

Any interstellar travel of biological life forms is extremely unlikely. I think it’s so unlikely it may not ever happen even once in our Galaxy, even though it is possible, it just doesn’t make sense. If we go to the stars it will be as uploads. The idea that gray skinned humanoids would come here to play peek-a-boo with pilots and never make global contact is so far beyond unlikely it boggles my mind.

Did you read your link? There's many mundane explanations of what was observed, most on the list.

It is good to see the Pentagon releasing evidence even when it makes the government look silly.

> It is good to see the Pentagon releasing evidence even when it makes the government look silly.

NASA isn't the Pentagon fyi. The Pentagon is the headquarters of the Department of Defense, the US military. NASA is a civilian agency, they aren't in that.

The Pentagon released the Tic-Tac video

Indeed, I did.

NASA's report backs up previous debunks stating that GOFAST was only going maybe 40 mph, which isn't out of line for windspeed at that altitude. It might have been a balloon. https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/uap_ind... Page 28

1, 4, 6, 7, 10 and combinations thereof? Other malfunctions and misinterpretations?

1) it was seen by thermal imagine on the jet and radar on Aegis Cruiser

4) The speed of movement is inconsistent with balloon

6,7) is possible but would require some fundamental physics breakthrough kept in secret

10) There were multiple jet pilots at the scene including top gun instructor. Their account is confirmed by video and radar from the ship.

It's suns and shadows on sea surface. IIRC some of videos show target ranging, which is around the altitude the aircraft were flying, in miles. Aircraft altimeters are almost always in feet so pilots generally don't immediately notice that.

you realise the thing was tracked by AEGIS Cruiser radar and observed from multiple jet fighters at various altitudes visually and using IR sensors.

Parallax effect? Echos? Misinterpreted sensor readings... endless list of possibilities and combinations. Have a lot of sensors, see a lot of odd things - nothing new.

It was seen visually, with IR, and via RADAR, each from multiple observers.

So what? Something caused that observation, but it wasn't something extraterrestrial. You also have to allow for one of the sensors to be wrong/noisy etc. and then being interpreted through the lens of observation via another.

None claiming it is extraterrestrial but there is no evidence to the contrary either. You have too many diverse independent sensors that lined up.

Doesn't work that way: there is always an infinite list of possibilities without evidence to the contrary if you allow for a wide enough "solution space" (even if you have already an explanation).

What you're saying is unfalsifiable.

Isn't it highly falsible? Show that sometimes there is only a finite set of possibilities no matter the solution space.

No, that's not really how that works.

You appear to be claiming that there's an infinite amount of explanations and we can't really know, while also claiming that more data points don't create greater certainty of correlation.

That's contrary to the basis of how science works.

I did not claim the part about more data or that we cannot really know, but rather that if you have to consider any and all explanation in an analysis you have a problem - it's a line of thinking that doesn't help and leaves the realm of science.

For example, is having a simple mechanical explanation for something really evidence against some Devine intervention that is just done so that everything looks "normal"?

It's a bit of a straw man we know for a fact that advanced lifeforms can develop in the universe because we are one.

Not really. How do those lifeforms travel to earth? Needing new physics would be right back to allowing pretty much anything.

Why do they have to travel to earth ? A robotic probe can travel X thousand years with no need for new physics. Also there are life forms on earth that basically live forever. Also pretending that a theory that we invented a 100 years ago that is not even fully consistent is some hard limitation on some advanced civ is pretty crazy. Is it more believable that some entity on earth has discovered new physics and kept it secret vs some advanced extraterrestrial civ is more developed than we are ?

Kind of back to my point: You can, of course, invent any weird hypothetical, but there is no justification to consider it in any hypothesis absent any need for it.

There are not many possible explanations this is either earth tech e.g. someone discovered new physics and kept it very secret and has this tech (but for some reason decided to flash it) or it's not earth tech.

Or it isn't any tech but I mix of sensor glitches, misperceptions etc. - no need to go for far out explanations.

Yep multiple pilots, IR targeting system, regular video camera and multiple radars all glitched for multiple minutes in a consistent manner is very high probability event

Vastly higher probability than new physics, extraterrestrials, or unknown advanced civilizations on earth. (Setting aside that not everything needs to glitch, but things could combine with misinterpretations etc.)

I dunno. The GIMBAL one looks a lot like 2.

I didn’t watch the cspan video but did they mention SOP? Did he try to communicate the the ufo/uap?

Otherwise it makes me think it is a hoax.

We test aircraft and technology against other countries, why not test our own country unprepared for how they respond.

The vice article is decent for skeptical people. https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7wjzg/the-skeptics-guide-to...

GIMBAL looks just like a jet aircraft on thermal camera.

GOFAST has been conclusively shown to be a slow-moving object at about 13,000 feet. It's simple geometry. We don't know what it is, exactly, but it's probably a balloon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLyEO0jNt6M

So GOFAST is probably a 3 or 4, while GIMBAL probably is a 6 or 7 but even more pedestrian.

That's a fair assessment.

However, I'd add that the two figter pilots who testified in front of Congress would NOT agree with the balloon assessment. So, if you accept their opninions as SME and thus leaning towards legitimate then that leaves "a slow-moving object" before you add in the details about the acceleration patterns that also occurred.

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