The Tyranny of the Marginal User
nothinghuman.substack.com
nothinghuman.substack.com
OkCupid had excellent growth in the first half of the 2010s, but as that growth started to plateau, it was pretty clear that the focus moved to following Tinder's trends in an effort to match their level of growth. But OkCupid was a really healthy company with great profits and low burn, being only a team of 30-40 people. It could have stayed the way it was and continued to turn a profit. But Tinder had shown that the market size for mobile was way bigger than the desktop-focused product that OkCupid used to be. The focus towards acquiring more mobile users meant stripping down and simplifying a product that previously demanded hundreds of words of essay writing, and answering hundreds of questions. The essay prompts became simpler, multiple choice asymmetric questions got deprioritized over reciprocal yes / no questions. And as a user, I felt the quality of conversations I had went down as most messages were sent on the go from people just trying to line up their weekend plans, instead of a deeply invested audience trying to form meaningful connections first.
I really miss working on the product OkCupid was when I started, and often day-dream about starting another dating app closer to its original long-form vision. But the worst part of trying to do that is bootstrapping users, and seems like the only ways to do that are either have a lot of capital, or shadier methods like fake profiles or scraping data off of other sites. Not really interested in raising or setting my morals aside to do it.
Another thing destroyed by the infinite growth model
Like if you have the same let's say 20% profit in the world of business is not enough, you want the RATE of your return to go higher even if the product allowed you to stay stupidity rich.
Economically better is a good pair of words that leads to enshittification via greed
As they say, if you are not paying for the product, you are the product.
Enjoying the generosity of other people is fine, but it gives you no right to expect it to last indefinitely.
Have you read the post or seen how the things go?
The paying user get fucked too, just give it time.
You are right. The greed of affectionate users who refuse to pay has destroyed many a service!
The original format attracted a much smarter and more worldly crowd of women, to put it bluntly, than the other services. I exited the dating game before Tinder, but if OkCupid lost that quirky, artsy, college educated crowd in the chase to compete, that's a real shame.
I didn't realize that it's no longer. I feel old pining for the internet of yesteryear. As is obvious only in retrospect, you don't realize when the golden years are!
http://web.archive.org/web/20100725135309/http://blog.okcupi...
OKCupid's own data showed that women rate men is ugly but message them anyway.
Tinder's data shows "chance of approach", which is brutal for men who are not too good looking.
IIRC, OkCupid's data shows a bit different thing. The distribution of ratings determines chance of messages/likes - the larger stddev the better chances. IIRC, the most messaged men were ones with ratings characterized by bimodal distribution. Therefore, the most messaged men were not the ones with highest visual rating. I do not recall the distribution of messages, so can't comment much on that.
[0]http://web.archive.org/web/20100725135309/http://blog.okcupi...
You try to improve these things. Going to the gym etc, or focusing on one's career is a start.
What it didn't seem to account for was if you rated someone high enough (I can't remember if it required 4 or 5 stars), OKCupid would notify the person in question that you had done so. If you didn't want these notifications being fired off you had to adjust your ratings accordingly - now 3 stars is the highest rating you are going to give.
I think the stats really just ended up reflecting that men were generally more comfortable having their ratings broadcast than women were.
(What they actually said was that women rate men much lower than men rate women, but the women still respond the same way despite rating them lower, so it doesn't mean anything.)
> When men message women, women tend to respond most often to men around their own ages. But when women message men, they’re actually more likely to get a response from younger men than they are from older ones. A 40-year-old woman will have better luck messaging a 25-year-old man than a 55-year-old one, according to the data. And a 30-year-old man is more likely to respond to a message from a 50-year-old woman than a message from any other age group. When women make the first move, the age gap dating norm is reversed.
[0] https://theblog.okcupid.com/undressed-whats-the-deal-with-th...
The same way men on average prefer big boobs, women on average will prefer taller men. Both can't really be changed by the person but exist as attractiveness scores against a person.
It matters to people who it matters to. Not many in the grand scheme and definitely not related to race.
Of course it is because it's relative to how tall they are. But taller women already don't expect you to tower over them, because that's hard to find, so it's ok if you don't.
> and obviously not specific to their race.
It is within a specific ethnicity and generation. If you're in a country where the men in a specific age are short because food was scarce 2-3 decades ago, they're not all single because their women aren't attracted to them.
And depending on culture and economic class, it matters more what impresses their parents, which is being a doctor-lawyer-astronaut who owns a house.
Thinking someone thinks a certain way based on their height is weird and wrong.
You are reading way too far into this and your take is incredibly wrong, not to mention racist.
I have no idea if women really are attracted to taller men, but I know what you hear people say isn't the whole truth either.
I’m glad you haven’t had that experience. Doesn’t discount that it’s a real thing.
Comments already devolving into "Yes it matters!" "No it doesn't!" only citing anecdotal personal experience.
I will say that all the women I dated on OKC were shorter than me, likely because it’s common for women to filter by height.
I dated women who were not shorter than me, but met them IRL.
When OKC was great, the random median many-hours-on-the-internet-every-day user was a lot better than it is today. Now that's just a median member of the general public, thanks to the ubiquity of social media.
/s
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejnp589JuL0
[2] https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/great-movie-annie-hall-19...
Someone needs to come up with a pithy term for how a subpopulation’s average value for any attribute approaches the population’s average value for same as the subpopulation’s size approaches that of the population. It’s conceptually a simple, even trivial, notion, but it’s cumbersome to talk about.
That’s also why undergraduate degrees are no longer a particularly good signal. And I expect if it were easier to talk about many more cases would become apparent.
It’s even more obvious with high school degrees. Most people cross that threshold, so the people who didn’t now represent a usual group of under achievers. The threshold is far below what FAANG’s are looking for, but requiring a HS/collage degree can effectively presort applicants for jobs with lower thresholds.
Unfortunately, such methods consistently exclude many worthwhile applicants from a wide range of jobs the same way asking for a criminal background check. But that then sets up a stronger feedback loop as people have stronger incentives to cross that threshold.
Of course you have to omit the part about taking a gap year and being a community college transfer student.
The only time people who are more than a few years into their career are asked about degrees (and grades) in an interview is at very bureaucratic organizations or when being interviewed by someone themselves barely out of school who lacks awareness.
> is at very bureaucratic organizations
Seeing as this career is a golden ticket with a guaranteed job for life if you’re half competent, I’d spin the complaints from some about these practices around: if an organisation is so detached from the realities of commercial software delivery and what makes a good hire that they’re asking about high school or your degree (and you do have experience), you’ve just received a boon of you all the information you needed. They’re not worth your time and don’t have their eyes on the ball. I’d just be thankful to have dodged a bullet!
Thinking about it I bet someone somewhere has a MA focusing on collage and produces incredible art, so no hard feelings here.
The good thing is that things aren't getting worse at least, all the idiots are already online.
They could have remained as the high-end of dating. 90% of men don’t enjoy using Tinder, and for women it’s just a utility service when being bachelor.
One is that they put the Internet in everybody's hands, literally.
The other, though, is that by virtue of the interface, both display (tiny) and input (shitty, to put it mildly), the effective IQ of those participating, regardless of whatever it was initially, is severely penalised.
When I'm typing at a keyboard, I can look at the words I'm typing, or the source I'm typing from, or just off into space as I'm thinking my thoughts ... and be reasonably assured that what I think I'm typing is what's actually appearing on screen. And if not, editing to correct and fix issues is reasonably straightforward. If necessary I'll switch to a Real Editor (that is, vim, Vale Bram Moolenaar) which is another quantum leap beyond in-browser textbox editing.
When I'm typing at a virtual touchscreen keyboard, I am staring at the keys themselves and trying to hit the the keys I'm actually intending to hit. I'm not monitoring the output (which invariably has errors), I'm not looking at source text, I'm not thinking and composing my thoughts.
And then editing what I've written is also painful.
The resulting typos, losses of thought, and general incoherence in my own writing absolutely pains me to look at. From what I can tell, other people seem to suffer similarly.
I've given up using mobile devices for input (unless I can use a hardware keyboard, and even that rarely), and ... frankly it's a much improved situation.
Smartphones shallow the mind in many ways.
You won't be surprised I've never got the point of limited space places like twitter...
When people said that those text pages, around 2000, what was the name? WAP? were going to get everybody online, I was very skeptical. But of course, that was pre-iPhone.
One of my daily drivers is a large (13.3") e-ink tablet. Reading on that is actually a pleasure, though it's led me to another conclusion: scrolling sucks.
I much prefer reading paginated media, and if at all possible, fixed-layout media (e.g., PDFs rather than ePub) both because the same material stays in the same place on the same page regardless of other settings (I have a strongly spatial memory), and because the layout is usually just simply much better than what fluid-layouts achieve.
What really drives me nuts though is having to scroll on webpages. It's imprecise, half the time I'm clicking on something I'd not intended to, and it's much harder and less pleasing to read.
But size and print clarity alone make this a huge improvement over smartphone displays.
Sorry to hear about the eyesight issues.
At home I use a 27'' screen with the regular glasses. I fear that if for a next job at some office they don't provide a similar one, the situation will repeat, now with regular glasses vs reading glasses :-m
I much prefer reading paginated media, and if at all possible, fixed-layout media (e.g., PDFs rather than ePub)
ePub didn't grow on me and I couldn't put my finger on why, I guess that's the reason.
About WAP phones, this was the one the company provided:
https://www.reddit.com/r/vintagemobilephones/comments/gefgsm...
Not bad, but not much I could do with it and they took away when I resigned.
The problem of focusing at multiple distances is ... a challenge.
I've reported issues / feature requests to Daniel multiple times, most of those have been addressed.
The "save to ePub" feature is among my absolute favourites. It's simply genius:
I am fine with "instantly jump by constant amount per mousewheel click"
Smooth scrolling ? Much worse
Smooth scrolling custom-implemented in JS, with ramp-in ramp-down speed? Close the webpage
This is reasonably determinative (the scroll distance is the same in each case), convenient (it's easy to hit those keys), and not confusable with other intent actions. That last point is key as very often when I'm attempting a scroll action on a touchscreen interface I instead commit a click action (usually navigating off-page). Which is maddening.
On touchscreens, not only can I not scroll by a prescribed amount, not only is input through an onscreen keyboard completely crippled, but there's an ever-present drag/click ambiguity which on Android at least (and from my limited experience with iPhones suggests there too) is everpresent.
Add in e-ink, and there are the additional levels that refresh rates drop low enough that following scrolling is tedious, and the display technology makes the many, many paints of a long scroll expensive in terms of battery life. Web browsing drains battery at 10x the rate of my e-book reader.
Einkbro at least mitigates some of that. Going back to Firefox or Onyx's Chrome-based browser is excruciating.
I never thought of it, but now that you mention it, yeah my eyes are on the text, not on the typing.
I switched to messagease in the first place because I make far less mistakes and it's faster to fix a one-letter goof than redo a whole word with swype (sometimes several times, also the gestures fail on unusual or jargon words).
The concept here does look as if it fits touchscreens better, appreciate your mentioning it.
There's nothing stopping anyone from making a website duplicating the original OKCupid method. It's just that it requires someone willing to say "no" to the Marginal User and stay niche.
And from what I can tell, Mastodon is duplicating the original, pre-value-extraction Twitter experience. But the main filter it has at the moment is the network effects from Twitter and Facebook; as it grows that filter effect will be reduced.
/s
There are plenty of options to separate smart people from regular crowd. IMHO, a separate DNS server, which unlocks alternative Internet, is the easiest way to move away from regular people, because it's a bit complicated to switch DNS on a mobile device.
IMHO, we need a bait. Something, that will bring in smart people, and only smart people. HN detracts regular people, because it looks boring and doesn't help to continue discussions. This is good for HN, but bad for discussions (and spamers).
I'm thinking about mix of a court and wikipedia. Something, where we can play our game (who is right? who is the smarter?) on steroids, something where we can layout our arguments, facts, ideas, and then discuss them (flame all night long), until someone else, an arbiter, will read all that and declare a winner. IMHO, a topic and number of win/lost/unfinished discussions will be a good indication of smartiness and expertise in a domain.
> I'm thinking about mix of a court and wikipedia. Something, where we can play our game (who is right? who is the smarter?) on steroids, something where we can layout our arguments, facts, ideas, and then discuss them (flame all night long), until someone else, an arbiter, will read all that and declare a winner. IMHO, a topic and number of win/lost/unfinished discussions will be a good indication of smartiness and expertise in a domain.
Any system based on voting will be overwhelmed by clueless people upvoting "wrong" thing, just look at reddit.
Only moderation works but that brings all kinds of problems with who is moderator and who chooses them, and what they are allowed to do etc.
It is designed to serve text documents with links and not much more. That it is a poor choice for anything else is a feature, not a bug.
Of course then it would be mostly bots as it would probably be trivial for modern LLMs to solve.
Bitnet Relay in 1992 had some, not even all universities connected and I know of marriages that originated in the IRL(!) relay parties. We actually drove across Europe to meet our online friends.
> for a wide class of probability distributions, no more than a certain fraction of values can be more than a certain distance from the mean. Specifically, no more than 1/k^2 of the distribution's values can be k or more standard deviations away from the mean.
IQ is (if I recall correctly) normally distributed with a standard deviation of 15. So for a distance of 1.3... standard deviation (i.e. a distance of 20), you can't have more than 1/1.3...^2 = 56.25% of the population so far from the mean (below 80 or above 120), or 28.125% _above_ 120.
(I found my literal 99% match before OKCupid went too wrong, so I don't really know how it fell. I'm assuming overt monetization poisoned the well.)
Grad students love writing essays. But if you want to expand, you have to face the fact that most people aren't grad students and don't love writing (or reading) essays.
The trajectory to "just another dating app" was inevitable.
It allowed folks a direct avenue to those they found attractive and could use skills other than paying, stellar photography, and quotes from highly upvoted r/Tinder comments as a way to convince others to go on dates.
People have been either really successful with the way dating apps operate now (they’re incredibly attractive males or just about all females) or they’re incredibly frustrated because the algorithms have taken so much control away.
It’s a sad reality. RIP OKC.
"New Yorkers will say 'only in New York!' and it's the most normal shit ever."
the similarity/CF stuff? what was the DARPA project? other than that it seemed a rather ordinary consumer webapp?
You can read the paper they published: "events can make sense" https://www.usenix.org/legacy/events/usenix07/tech/krohn.htm...
I met some ex-OkCupid engineers at a later company who said the framework was smart but a pain to maintain in then long run.
I was nodding my head very hard at this essay, but this has given me something to chew on.
Seems to resonate with the "filter for brainy people" filter OKC seems to once have had.
The problem is that when you choose eternally needing customers you have to switch to the types of people who will never have a long term relationship - which Tinder style apps work better for.
But those kind of people also drive away the ones looking for a long-term partner.
Really sounds like poisoning the well.
I had another OKC date from that era where the woman had a very high IQ, her father was a prolific author and her late 20’s brother was VP of ask.com at the time.
I had just assumed it was the Silicon Valley bubble clientele (and still just might’ve been). But only 3 years later I recall younger male coworkers describing how much dating apps declined and how terrible the dating scene had become with “swipe culture”.
Everybody is nearby when you have subway trains connecting half the people in your country together in under an hour.
That you would not pay $100/month for a site like the original OkCupid.
I always had this weird vague hunch that spark match become OKCupid. Any info on this?
> SparkMatch debuted as a beta experiment of allowing registered users who had taken the Match Test to search for and contact each other based on their Match Test types. The popularity of SparkMatch took off and it was launched as its own site, later renamed OkCupid.
And I definitely think you're off base about mobile devices being popular because they're mobile. People will sit at home and use a phone that is an incredibly worse experience than using an actual computer, and think it's an adequate substitute. They don't need the mobility in that situation, but they really think there's nothing wrong with the user experience.
I’m not exactly the demographic of “only uses mobile” - I am very much a “pre-mobile internet user” (coding, games, music all required me to pick up some desktop skills) but can attest to the fact that I don’t hate the experience in a way that’s commensurate with how much I’d hate having a hot laptop on my stomach or sitting in some other room typing this out.
At what age does someone need root access to become interested in a career in CS/IT/web dev/whatever?
Or, if not root access, like what kind of "desktop level capabilities" should I have had that I did not have, given that I did not have a desktop as a teenager or younger?
I am Gen X. I can think of exactly 0 friends who had their own desktops as teenagers. (Their own, as in were not really their parents' work computer, did not have to share with the family, could do whatever they wanted with, etc.)
https://www.theverge.com/22684730/students-file-folder-direc...
You do not need root access necessarily, but you do need to get familiarity with the platforms you will actually be using when working, ie. Windows and maybe macOS.
For Gen X and most of millennials, that platform was the only platform that existed. Using computers necessitated becoming familiar with "real" computers. That is no longer the case which is why gen Z are digital natives that have the digital literacy on a similar level to baby boomers.
That's the root of this blog post, the rise of Tinder, and the big shift to mobile in general. Nerds aren't the only people on the internet anymore. The average person is now on the internet. OKCupid was very much the dating site of us thoughtful nerds, those who thought text and personality tests would help them find a better match. Most singles in the West at the time just went to the bar, got intoxicated, then made base conversation with whomever engaged their base interests. That demographic moved to Tinder.
Unless you're specifically targeting a nerd-heavy demographic (e.g. academics, devs, hackers, etc) with a high margin product, if the goal is to create a mass appeal product then making nerds happy just isn't profitable. We're too small in number and too picky.
Of course there is a human element too. Dating sites give the illusion of choice, and a result a lot of potential matches aren't realised on, as the partner is good looking enough.
So then the trick is to provide the illusion of successful relationships (but of course not ones that actually pan out in the long term).
OkCupid, in its heydays, indeed managed to match people on common values by asking detailed questions. A lot of modern dating apps are far more focus on looks and common interests.
Yes they look cute, and love rock climbing too, but hate children, and never want any. It will result in a good match in your mid twenties, but likely going to result in irreconcilable differences when you approach 30. Unless of course you both hate children :-)
Not that long before the acquisition a certain jackass brought in as a consultant (ahem) happened to point to OkC as the leading competitor against the acquiring company's properties specifically for mobile.
Sorry everyone...
If it makes it any better, I've had to use the product since then too, and suffered alongside all the rest of you.
Our personal misery and loneliness aside, the long-term societal effects as generations wear on will be fascinating.
the top point is that more users usually lead to a worse product, no?
The success of the "nightclub app" is that people feel they are a match only as long as they "drink", and by morning they are thirsty for more. Growth comes from the heartache of loneliness, failed relationships, and divorce. A worse product (poor matching, and stifled communication) is the actual goal of a more profitable dating app, not simply being a consequence of having more users.
Okay... what was the ratio of active men to women on OkCupid each year? How about on Tinder? You worked there, and that's an unfair assessment of Tinder.
The fundamental trend in these dating apps is that ratio, and the relative growth (or decline!) of that gender's active user base. And it's not something Match, or for that matter Dataclysm ever discussed, even though it's kind of the most important single metric for a dating app.
I mean ask demographers, they talk about 3m:2f being a crisis ratio [1]. And on Tinder it's probably closer to 10:1-20:1, I'm sure they pay AppAnnie (or whatever they're called now) to push out some fake ass numbers here and there. If it wasn't a horrible number - anything worse than 3m:2f is pretty horrible! - they would write about it, and they simply won't.
On the one hand I really liked Dataclysm, and I was bought into the ideas it put forward. There's this post from 2018 by the author that used to say, oh well the reply rate to black women was 20 percentage points lower, which is the same in 2008. Well, trends showed about 18 percentage points more interracial marriages, the data was totally counter to trend: that indicated a problem in OkCupid, not in the user base as the author claimed. The Tinder PR team kind of put the kibosh on that kind of transparency for the wrong reasons, but it was the right idea.
So this big essay prompt format that the app used to use, I don't know if it was part of the problem where OkCupid was fundamentally against trend. In some respects, clearly, the essays versus swiping didn't matter. It certainly seems intuitive that the essays matter, it appeals to a sense of superiority in a particular audience's way of believing how online dating should work, but those guys are operating in the vacuum of the single most important data point (the actual ratio) and are forced to essentially generate fictions for why the apps work the way they do and why it worked for them.
I appreciate that from your point of view, 2013-2017 was a focus on "mobile" and that in your opinion that was "bad." But c'mon, show me a category of free app that didn't have a focus on "mobile." I personally think the apps are doing the best given the circumstances - the ratio! - and that everything else is dancing around this because, if people knew, you know, they'd stop using them.
[1] https://www.google.com/books/edition/Date_onomics/7GDVBgAAQB... (page 22)
It seems to have over and over where a product and brand that makes decent profit is utterly destroyed in an attempt to acquire a new market.
Advertising, novel technical infrastructure, new branding, etc... all of this needs to be done for a new brand -- and then who knows if any one will come visit?
Or, you can just make whatever short-term changes to your existing successful product, juice the metric you're looking to juice, and (in theory) cashout before the long term repercussions take affect.
Take this OkCupid example; they had their website model. They could have just created "OkCupid Nights" as a separate Tinder-like product reusing as much of their tech as possible.
That said, other point: Why not just accept you're no longer growing? The company would've stayed solvent for years yet, with a steady group of users coming in and out over time as the brand becomes synonymous with thoughtful dating profiles instead of the rapid fire hot-or-not that is Tinder.
Instragram was able to pull their users into Threads pretty easily without making Threads a direct part of Instragram. It is still it's own thing with it's own brand.
Literally everyone says that they are different and want a smart partner, but when they actually hook up they aren't ranking high intellect.
I liked okcupids blogs. The maintakeaway I had from reading all of them was:
1. How much appearance played a role in being attractive.
2. 90+% of women attempted to hook up with the same 10% of men, while men were much more open to women not in the top 10%.
3. What people claimed they wanted in a partner had almost no relation to what they actually wanted, when looking at who they messaged, who they viewed, and who they responded to.
All apps now are very aggressively tracking everything, so they have a much better idea of what makes people open their wallets, and intellect apparently isn't one of those things.
I don't think you're characterizing the results accurately, particularly point #2. I don't think they really had a way to measure #3. #1 is just obviously true but doesn't add much.
Maybe not, but #2 was from a blog that specifically looked at the data of messaging: how many men received messages, how many women received messages.
IIRC, nearly all the women received messages and sent messages, while only about 10% of the men received messages while all of the men sent messages. I don't really see any other way to interpret data showing that both men and women sent messages at about the same rate, but only about 10% of men received any messages.
Now I don't have the blog handy (and I rather wished I did), but my takeaway #3 was from reading all the blogs available, in basically one marathon sitting, not from one particular blog.
This is not to say you're wrong or right, but I don't think the numbers tell us much without seeing the full distribution.
Apps are not developed for the sake of the users. Apps are developed in order to make a profit.
If your higher intellect users are not ready to pay good money for your product, it can only be one of two things: either they are cheap, or your product is not that great. Considering that there is no correlation between intellect and cheapness, I would exclude the first hypothesis.
Then you end up with a crappy product (and it was your higher intellect users who voted it crappy) and a bunch of advertisers ready to pay you bread crumbs for your users' attention, and you suddenly realise that you need a lot of crumbles to get a sandwich.
In the case of OkCupid, I did buy the premium offer, and used the possibilities (mainly see the answers to the quizz, and filter people) to make a profile that would show 99% match score with the kind of women I was looking for.
At some point, it got close to a game, which was very fun and satisfying as I could meet nice girls as a result ;-)
I’m sad to read that it’s gone downhill since it moved into new ownership.
A voice interface might help. By default in the app of course, not a phone feature the user has to use to TTS into the app.
I feel this is the turning point leading to downfall of many companies.
Anyway all of which is to say 1. OKC was great and thank you for working on it, and 2. your story resonates so much with my experience and observations from the other side of the equation.
This, to me, is the key line in this quite good article.
It's not that software companies are catering to those other people who are infinitely stupid and deserving of our scorn. It's that they are catering to the worse impulses in all of us and encouraging us to become those people.
While this is true, it stands to question: why build systems to encourage this? Shouldn't we be trying to do better?
If nothing else, how can one avoid falling into these traps?
Perhaps due long tail effects.
Tech (platforms) will always be advertising focused, because information systems scale with compute. marginal costs are so minor, that the limit becomes human attention.
Which is also why apple may be able to focus on user centric design better. They are product + tech.
Then again I can see other physical product firms delving into advertising - so its most likely corporate behavior/values.
Take Signal for example - early days they had a ton of success with a core group of users, in spite of a number of product warts. Ever since then, they've been making usability improvements to lower friction and appeal to more and more marginal users. Is that good or bad? Based on the hn threads I've seen, it seems like the jury is pretty mixed?
Some software is like that. Most isn't - but the enshittification culture is affecting it all the same.
If you try to appeal to someone’s better parts, then there is a limit to the amount of attention that they can apply to your product.
If you try to appeal to someone’s base need for dopamine, then the limit of attention is much higher.
until incentives change, people will continue to encourage this. The base instinct behaviors when one is stressed and tired and checked out are the most profitable, the most susceptible to adverts etc.
The way to encourage conciencousness, taking pride in creation etc is to see a few (the right amount of) others (who are seen by the user as peers, not unnatainable far off creators) doing the same. Maybe stretched/challenged a little - one or two at most people above their skill level, who appear approachable and humble.
It's the format of most true knowledge creation, be it classrooms, effective workplaces, sports programs, and others
I cannot prove it, but this is how I think it is. For the record, I think I am smart; however, because of the Iron Rule of Intelligence above, it is equally possible that I am only average.
That is incredibly unsettling, and not just because it makes me uncomfortable. Dumbing down should never be a deliberate goal, especially of people.
There are probably thousands of psychology grads that went to school, hoping to help people, that are, instead, designing dark patterns.
But they are probably making a lot more money than they would, helping people.
Evil pays cash.
[0]https://library.osu.edu/site/40stories/2020/01/05/we-have-me...
If you look at people, each of them have multiple different “personas” throughout the day/week/etc.[0]
Some of them, sometimes, are builders or content creators.
Some of them, sometimes, are conscientious consumers, looking to stretch their understanding or themselves and think hard about something that they are consuming.
But all of them, sometimes, are Marl.
There will always be a way to find more Marls to add to your user pool because Marl is the basest human need for a steady effortless dopamine drip. Just about everyone has some amount of time that they spend as Marl, so there is an almost limitless pool of Marl time to pull new users from.
I’m trying to find some way to say that this isn’t what you actually want, but I’m struggling. If you are making a product for everyone, Marl is the only persona that is in everyone, so you should probably target Marl.
However, if you are trying to build a product for a more constrained persona, you should probably be careful of using metrics that measure Marls. Because there are so many of them (even your users with other personas are sometimes Marls!) if you aren’t really careful, you will enshitify your product as you continue your A/B testing gradient descent into a user base of Marls, without anyone you were trying to get — even if you don’t loose your content creators and conscientious consumers, you have converted them into Marls, and lost what you were trying to achieve.
Enshitification is the conversion of your target user from any other kind of persona, to Marls.
[0] there are other personas, these were that the ones that immediately came to mind.
The culture of growth-at-all-costs has been condemned plenty in other threads here, I won't restate how/why. It's the problem that brings about, for example, "your A/B testing gradient descent" as the gravitational pull towards enshittification: the idea that robotically optimizing for greater growth/income/engagement is the right thing for a business to do. This ignores the huge range of ethical, profitable businesses that inhabit the space in the size/growth spectrum between "lifestyle boutique that pays the employees' bills and not much more" and "virally growing global superphenomenon". The presumption that those two extremes are the only inevitable outcomes for a business is poison. Unfortunately, sustainably inhabiting that middle ground requires a resistance to extreme greed on the part of a business's leadership/leadership culture--and again, the presence of some greed is just fine in non-hypergrowth businesses! There are loyal, lucrative, and sizable markets for carefully targeted products whose focus doesn't drift; "niche" is not a pejorative, and many niches are wide enough to be worth absolute shitloads of money! Unfortunately, continually resisting the extremity of greed is not something humans are good at.
There's also the fear of outcompetition: the idea that a Marl-serving competitor will grow so large that they extinguish your non-Marl-focused business. That's sometimes true, but not inevitably so--and enduring the risk of that "sometimes" is one of the grit-your-teeth-and-stick-to-your-ethics behaviors that distinguishes beloved minority members of a market from self-immolating enshittification chasers. Remember, Apple was a beloved minority player in personal computing, staying (and generally performing well) within a luxury/loyalist niche, for more than a decade. Enduring risk in the face of the fear of outcompetition does require bravery from leaders, but can yield benefits both in the form of profits/loyalty and--rarely--by converting Marls into non-Marls by showing an example of how much better things can be.
Short version is a cold take: the intersection of hypergrowth-legend-induced greed and outcompetition fear, applied across large groups of people with communication impedance, leads to crappy outcomes. As usual.
A large percentage never used e-mail because e-mail addresses are too abstract. They only began using "social media" when they could address correspondence by photograph.
There are a billion people who can speak but not read and write, and billions who can read and write but not well enough to earn karma on Hacker News.
Though smart people are sometimes Marl, they are Marl less often, or in more sophisticated ways (like wasting time on Hacker News).
Karma on hackernews seems like a pretty arbitrary metric for intelligence
In my experience, making stuff that provides no intrinsic value like video games, only value of meaning, my games have only gotten better by catering to those impulses, which are really not that negative or stupid.
Really, who needs tutorials? Why make stuff that needs a tutorial? You can have complex games without tutorials and FTUEs. You don't need so much UI. It's not about scrolling so much as it is that so many apps obscure, rather than transmit, anything meaningful, through really obnoxious UI.
This argument is the Malcolm Gladwell 140 character tweet complaint not being enough to have a deep conversation. Easy for him to say, he's got his!
I noticed these days that I spend more time during those "microboredoms" on my phone. I have 10 seconds? Check out reddit!
I've been trying to kick this habit, enjoy my surroundings more, or get lost in my head like I used to.
98% of Spotify users never take any action other than “press play” on a radio station
2% take some kind of agency (create a playlist, like a song)
A vanishingly small amount create personal or public curated playlists
Yes, that very small amount may also listen passively sometimes, but the difference matters. Imagine if Spotify was just a radio station.
In meatspace: Nike, Adidas?
Does Nike want me to run and jump less, to participate in sports less, to work out less often? No, they run expensive ad campaigns encouraging me to make exercise a regular part of my life. To sell apparel, yes, but they aren't telling me to eat more cheeseburgers or drink more booze like other corporations.
A doctor that makes a bad diagnostic might suffer a malpractice lawsuit, or at the very least will be known for their incompetence. What happens with Nike for customers that bought their products but never get to do anything? Do they give any type of money back?
Like the duolingo redesign.
It's one of the reasons I generally seek out smaller companies for stuff like this. The biggest company in these sorts of categories gets there by being entirely unhelpful at its stated goals :(
Even the shoes. You'll get so much better service from a mid sized distributor that actually cares than mass market conglomerates. If you ask for advice it will be sincerely given rather than a premade statement calibrated to tap into base impulse version of you to increase your likelihood of spending the most
Case in point: Guitar tuner apps. Back in 2005 a good friend of mine had a startup that made the best-in-class guitar tuner app in the feature phone / flip phone era, before Android. Back then, they had to deal with all manner of constraints from vendors and the hardware of the day. They figured it out and shipped a featureful app that had a < 1MB binary and run at realtime speeds and had an intuitive UI. They sold it for something like a $6 one-time payment and were happy keeping their startup chugging along at $500k-$1M annual revenue. Fast forward to today, there are a zillion clones, typically weighing in at 40+MB, are "free with ads" and will nag you endlessly to sign up for $7, $10, even $15 per month. Their UIs suck, too. I have no idea what their revenue aspirations are, but this is totally driven by capturing consumer surplus from the orders-of-magnitude larger Android market. We all lose.
I do not pay for these apps; I would gladly have back that $6 app, but can't have it. The market is absolutely saturated with enshittified Android apps. Instead, I intentionally spend significantly more than that on dedicated tuners (like the excellent but somewhat fragile Snark clip-on ones).
Yes, the author tries to hand-wave this away as "product is sticky", but I really doubt this is the main reason.
No, the truth is far more scary. The average user doesn't want deep and meaningful content. The average user is Marl. That is why every product, no matter how noble it starts off, eventually degenerate into Marl-fodder. Because that's where the money is. The only way to escape this is to take on a huge pay cut and work at a company that doesn't care about growing profits. Go ahead, you first.
Finally, let's be honest. Marl isn't some obnoxious bozo. You and I are both Marl. That's why we're here in the HN comments. You are Marl, I am Marl, the world is Marl, and it's getting Marlier every day.
To perceive an effect in new users without getting the same effect in existing users, you'd need to show different content to those two groups.
It was on a small part (test of a product name + description across the site), and the most interesting aspect was that it only made a small but measureable difference. Because of that there was no strong incentive to delete the AB test (not much harm to the user) nor make the B side permanent (too low of an effect).
In that respect, AB Tests that end early aren't a bad thing IMO: either there's a clear improvement or it's really bad, and the choice is obvious enough to not have to wait much longer.
You can measure the direct effect of a change now on something like conversions. But you can't measure the second order effects: things like trust from your users, or the effects on community quality and composition, etc.
This is a good part of why enshittification happens: lots of changes with immediate "good" impact that can be measured quantifiably, but there's also readily foreseeable negative consequences to them.
Of course, just running the test longer doesn't really address this for most possible changes.
- High Value Action / Downstream Impact == using a "twins" comparison, estimate the 12-month impact of a customer taking a particular action (e.g. sign up for Prime, watch their first Prime Video, etc.), compared to one who doesn't. HVAs are basically those "A's" which turn out to have a high numeric DSI value.
- Downstream Expectation == similar but very different - instead of quantifying the impact of a single action, DSE tries to estimate the combined downstream causal impact of a user taking an initial action... there's a sophisticated methodology there that tries to strip away confounding factors like "rich people who would've shopped more anyways, are also naturally more likely to sign up for Prime", because they truly want to measure the causal benefit of Prime itself, separate from the fact that richer customers generally spend more no matter what
These are both long-term methodologies, that were explicitly designed in response to the problems of: short term experiments that didn't capture long-term negative effects, and different parts of Amazon having vastly different methodologies for measuring business impact (e.g. page views vs search impressions vs downloads vs orders vs whatever... no, everyone should optimize for the same customer level financial metric which is a flavor of growth-adjusted composite contribution profit (GCCP) that's partly derived from DSE)
It's funny-- Amazon is the exact case I'm thinking of. I went from spending high five figures to a few hundred, and I'm seeking to eliminate that. The exact impact of these kinds of data-driven management practices has lead me to expending a whole lot of work to figure out how to give Costco, Target, and Walmart my business instead.
My complaints:
- Cutting of customer service. I didn't use customer service often, but it was always exemplary There's something wrong with my account where if I pay with points from my Amazon Visa for a book, that the book gets yoinked away out of my account a couple of days later with a "payment failed" message. The points are still deducted. I spent a few hours with customer support twice on this issue, and each time the specific book that this happened to was fixed, but the problem remains. It's clearly a backend problem, but Amazon thinks it's a better move to keep a high value customer on hold while people not empowered to fix anything futz around.
- I (believe that I) was briefly in an experiment with an alternate "buy it now" order flow that would pretty reliably charge me for 2 of whatever item I was seeking to buy. Support wasn't helpful. I have video.
- Overall devolution of the retail marketplace into a flea market full of counterfeit, dubious goods.
- Aggressive attempts to upsell me back into the Prime ecosystem (e.g. the whole "Iliad flow" thing).
I'm sure all of these business decisions and changes looked great on initial measurements, but they're traps later. Worse, they turn people like me into people that were formerly Amazon evangelists to people who work to help friends use other marketplaces.
Even a year isn't sufficient time: none of these things pissed me off within a year of the change. And they're pretty difficult to capture, because they're hopelessly confounded with other changes in the market and consumer sentiment and Amazon doesn't roll things out slowly enough have a truly different contingent experiencing a different business.
Heck, maybe even all the interactions with me look positive on your metrics, depending on how you weigh downstream effects in your model: a previously valuable customer has "payment problems", begins consuming excessive support resources, then leaves.
And yes, 12 months is arbitrary and doesn't capture everything, and longer windows of analysis are possible, but waiting even longer just throws the signal-to-noise ratio too far in the direction of noise.
FWIW, I no longer at Amazon, but I've yet to see a company of significant scale apply this level of econometrics so rigorously in day to day business decisions, or that they would evaluate 12 months as a baseline (most companies and most A/B tests are much shorter, obviously). I'm sorry you've had bad experiences, and anyways I think it's overall good for society to cultivate strong alternatives to Amazon, but as invisible as it may be to you as a consumer, your data and your lost value as a customer are definitely accounted for within these methodologies, even if no visible changes are happening or they're not winning you back.
I love statistics and econometrics and testing beliefs with data.
But at some point, you do need to think about how to relate to human beings and what is, overall, "good business." That is, data are not replacements for clinical judgment about what is reasonable.
Coming up with ever-more-sophisticated ways to measure what is revenue maximizing but "not quite too abusive" isn't how we keep a good reputation or create a good world to live in.
Of course, completely ignoring indicators and making choices purely based on intuition and values isn't great, either.
It was relatively rare that the holdback would show markedly different results than the initial A/B test we used in deciding to launch. If that had happened more often we would have run more long tests and been slower to move to launch.
https://www.zumsteg.net/2022/07/05/unchecked-ab-testing-dest...
Gladly! Where do I sign up?
I did this in 2022 [1] and have really liked my new work. There are a lot of nonprofits doing important things, and I think it's likely you could switch to one.
[1] https://www.jefftk.com/p/leaving-google-joining-the-nucleic-...
I looked for a colophon / about site page with no joy.
Source suggests it's simply hand-coded HTML?
Hrm... Apparently, plus some webscripts?
<https://www.jefftk.com/p/designing-low-upkeep-software>
<https://github.com/jeffkaufman/webscripts/blob/master/makers...>
I also like the article preview hack.
It's not that its impossible to work with people to raise them to a higher stanardard. It's harder, sure. But not impossible. And the result is usually worth its weight in gold
The big reason for that is that people do not want to pay for quality content or services. Ask any HN commenter if you doubt me. So companies instead focus on growth to get the ad cents from the millions of impressions, or trick "whales" by manipulating their addiction in the same manner as casinos.
As long as people call anybody a fool for paying for online services, don't expect things to improve.
Then the characteristics of the users at the fringes will change the more you grow. That is to say, the former Marls in the middle are different (and likely not so shallow) from the next-generation Marls on the outside. Eventually, your notion of what is the average user, and OP's notion of what is the Marl that finally kills the UX, will align.
I half-agree with you. I think it's possible to cultive environments where content consumption is more intentional and anti-Marlian. I think HN does a pretty good job of this.
To design for humanity, you need to look deeper into what Marl wants without relying on Marl to tell you what that is, because he is incapable of expressing it with words or actions.
The point is whether the tools feed our best or worst intentions, and which are easier to exploit. To put the onus on the individual is skewed.
Perhaps the resolutions to the Repugnant Conclusion (Section 2, "Eight Ways of Dealing with the Repugnant Conclusion") can also be applied to the tyranny of the marginal user. Though to be honest, I find none of the resolutions wholly compelling.
[0] https://plato.stanford.edu/ARCHIVES/WIN2009/entries/repugnan...
There's many ways you can interpret that, though.
But I think if you say, before we had 1 apple per person, and now we have 2x as many apples, but they're all owned by one person - that's hard to argue it's utilitarian.
If before you had 100 apples, and everyone who wanted one had one, and now you have 10,000 apples distributed to people at random, but only 1 in 100 people who wants one has one - that also seems hard to argue as utilitarian.
Businesses are value maximization functions. They'll only be utilitarian if that happens to maximize value.
In the case of software - if you go from 1m users to 10m users - that doesn't imply utilitarianism. It implies that was good for gaming some metric - which more often than not these days is growth, not profit.
All of his work with effective altruism is aimed at reducing suffering of those worst off in the world and spends no time with how to make the well off even happier.
https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/
Along the header there is an item "free book" if you want to get the book.
In short, there are a few theses in the book that combine in a compelling way. This isn't his summary, this is the summary I got out of reading it. (1) the suffering of someone you don't know is just as real as the suffering of someone you do know. (2) there are many worthy causes, but we aren't allocating enough resources to address them all, so it is best to allocate them such that they do the most good for the worst off (3) if you are reading hacker news, you are likely in the 1% (worldwide) and your primary needs are already being met and you can make meaningful contributions to help those most in need without affecting your lifestyle much.
Each chapter tackles a topic. For instance, part of it brings up many the counter arguments about why someone might not want to donate and then debunks them. Eg, in a poll, most US citizens believe that 10-20% of their taxes are going to foreign, and say about half that, say 5%, would be reasonable. In fact it is well under 1%. Or people will say there have always been poor people and there will always be poor people (counter argument: to the people who are helped, aid makes a huge difference to them personally, and there have actually been great strides in the past 30 years at reducing global poverty).
Another chapter talks about the typical feel good news item about someone in the community who has gone blind and so the community pitches in to pay for a seeing eye dog for the person (it costs up to $50K to train and vet such dogs). Yet that same $50K could have prevented river blindness for thousands of children, or been enough to perform cataract surgery on thousands of blind adults.
People often say, why give to a charity in Africa? It will just end up in someone's pocket before it helps anyway. The book talks about the effective altruism movement and describes how charities are vetted and monitored. The website above has links to many such vetted charities.
Another chapter talks about where to draw the line? Sure, I can afford $700 to pay for corrective surgery for a woman suffering from fistula and feel good about myself. But in reality I could afford another $700, then another $700, etc. Do I need to keep donating to those worse off until I am one of the worse off people? (spoiler: no)
Many people buy (or are forced to buy) insurance that covers minor outlays, too.
Using that kind of insurance has pretty big (relative) overheads not just in terms of money but also in terms of annoying paperwork and bureaucracy.
Some of the worst offenders are probably health insurance plans that include a fixed hundred bucks allowance towards new glasses every year. They might just as well charge you hundred bucks less in premiums and strike that allowance. (Unless in cases where that scheme is a tax dodge.)
Profit is only one part of the overhead. They also have to pay agents, adjusters, underwriters, managers, office stationary, postage, fraud investigators, lawyers, taxes, interest on bonds etc.
Similar for hospitals etc. Profit, ie cost of equity capital, is usually (but not always) a relatively small part of an organisation's overall cost structure. And the non-profit alternatives typically don't have meaningfully lower costs.
I much prefer, "I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy." At least in that case nobody will confuse a trucker hat slogan for a viable system of ethics.
Like it seems like you have to take "worth living" seriously, since that is the element that is doing all the work. If it's worth living, you've factored in everything that matters already.
It's not that the acceptable state of 1.01 is repugnant, it's that the conclusion seems counterintuitive and ethically problematic to many people, as it suggests that we should prefer creating a massive population of people who are barely happy over a smaller population of people who are very happy.
Perhaps people don't see that (2) is a part of the premise?
I don't understand why you're insisting on a binary distinction of acceptable vs. not acceptable. With that assumption there is no repugnant conclusion.
Consequently you believe that it is better for a large number of people to exist in a state barely better than misery than for a smaller number of people to experience a greater degree of happiness.
Fair enough.
But I just don't get why people see it as an ethical dilemma – the conclusion is a perfectly sensible outcome of the setup. The conclusion is just a restatement of the premise – a maximization of population over a maximization of happiness. Thats why it seems tautological to me, the math of it is perfunctory and reveals nothing. If you cared about maximizing happiness more than population you would have to modify the setup. The trade-off is built into the premise.
https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dict...
If you don't like the repugnant conclusion you have to change something in the conditions of the environment so that you make it not be true. Arguing against it and calling your refutation obvious doesn't do anything.
But we have to acknowledge that the weird philosophical thought experiment that can't possibly convince anyone except weird philosophers turned out to be convincing to other entities after all.
Compare the trolley problem, a famous thought experiment that people used to laugh at, up until a couple of years when suddenly important people began to ask important questions like "should we relax the safety standards for potentially life-saving vaccines" and "how much larger than Y does X need to be so that preventing X functionally illiterate children are worth the price of Y dead children"
I don't see how you couldn't value other people existing – I think they have just as much of a right to experience the universe as I do.
Your second sentence rankles the hell out of me, you're only able to make that snap judgement to this because of your exposure to academic philosophy (where do you think that example that demonstrates the problem so clearly comes from?), but are completely unaware of that.
The bullshitters aren't puzzling at seemingly simple things, they're writing content free fluff.
It's actually a hard problem to design a perfect moral system, that's why people have been trying for literally thousands of years.
Second, what's "obvious to everyone" is just based on how you're phrasing the question. If you suggested to people it would be better if the population were just one deliriously happy person with N=50, vs 5 happy people with N=10.1, people would say obviously it would be better to spread the wealth and increase overall happiness.
You may feel so certain that they're just too wrapped up in their nonsense that they can't see what you see. But at the very least you will have to learn it the way they learned it if you want to be effective at communicating with them to articulate what you think is wrong and convince people. And in doing so you'll likely realise that far from some unquestioned truth, every conclusion in the field is subject to vigorous debate, and hundreds and thousands of pages and criticisms and rebuttals exist for any conclusion you care about. And for it to get as big as it is such that you, a person hearing about it from outside, there must at least be something interesting and worth examining going on there.
For a prime example, see all the retired engineers who decide that because they can't read a paper on quantum physics with their calculus background, the phsyicists must be overcomplicating it, and bombard them constantly with mail about their own crackpot theories. You don't want to be that person.
Utilitarianism ought to be about maximizing the happiness (total and distribution) of an existing population. Merging it with natalism isn’t realistic or meaningful, so we end up with these population morality debates. The happiness of a unconceived possible human is null (not the same as zero!)
Compare to Rawls’s Original Position, which uses an unborn person to make the hypothetical work but is ultimately about optimizing for happiness in an existing population.
We really shouldn’t get ourselves tied into knots about the possibility of pumping out trillions of humans because an algorithm says they’ll be marginally net content. That’s not the end goal of any reasonable, practical, or sane system of ethics.
> Utilitarianism ought to be about maximizing the happiness (total and distribution) of an existing population
For those who accept your claim above, lots of stuff follows, but your claim is a bold assertion that isn't accepted by everyone involved, or even many people involved.
The repugnant conclusion is a thought experiment where one starts with certain stripped-down claims not including yours here and follow it to its logical conclusion. This is worth doing because many people find it plausible that those axioms define a good ethical system, but the fact they require the repugnant conclusion causes people to say "Something in here seems to be wrong or incomplete." People have proposed many alternate axioms, and your take is just one which isn't popular.
I suspect part of the reason yours isn't popular is
- People seek axiological answers from their ethical systems, so they wish to be able to answer "Are these two unlike worlds better?" -- even if they aren't asking "What action should I take?" Many people want to know "What is better?" so they explore questions of what are better, period, and something they want is to always to have such questions be answerable. Some folks have explored a concept along the lines of yours, where sometimes there just isn't a comparison available, but giving up on being able to compare every pair isn't popular.
- We actually make decisions or imagine the ability to make future real decisions that result in there being more or fewer persons. Is it right to have kids? Is it right to subsidize childbearing? Is it right to attempt to make a ton of virtual persons?
> The happiness of a unconceived possible human is null (not the same as zero!)
Okay, if you say "Total utilitarianism (and all similar things) are wrong", then of course you don't reach the repugnant conclusion via Parfit's argument. "A, B, C implies D", "Well, not B" is not a very interesting argument here.
Your null posing also doesn't really answer how we _should_ handle questions of what to do that result in persons being created or destroyed.
> We really shouldn’t get ourselves tied into knots about the possibility of pumping out trillions of humans because an algorithm says they’ll be marginally net content. That’s not the end goal of any reasonable, practical, or sane system of ethics.
Okay, what is the end goal? If you'll enlighten us, then we can all know.
Until then, folks are going to keep trying to figure it out. Parfit explored a system that many people might have thought sounded good on its premises, but proved it led to the repugnant conclusion. The normal reaction is, "Okay, that wasn't the right recipe. Let's keep looking. I want to find a better recipe so I know what to do in hard, real cases." Since such folks rejected the ethical system because it led to the repugnant conclusion, they could be less confident in its prescriptions in more practical situations -- they know that the premises of the system don't reflect what they want to adopt as their ethical system.
Are you sure you aren't sharing the world with people who do not adhere to reasonable, practical, or sane system of ethics?
Because, ngl, lately, I'm not so sure I can offer an affirmative on that one, making "Getting tied into knots about the possibility of pumping out trillions of humans because an algorithm says they’ll be marginally net content" a reasonable thing to be trying to cut a la the Gordian knot.
After all, that very thing, "pump out trillions of humans because some algorithm (genetics, instincts, & culture taken collectively) says they'll be marginally more content" is modus operandi for humanity, with shockingly little appreciation for the externalities therein involved.
Not even for academics. It's something for "rational"-bros.
Then again the opposite side has also devolved into a parody of 20th century contintenal philosophical concerns with no saving grace.
That's a somewhat-similar alternative to utilitarianism. Which has its own kind of repugnant conclusions, in part as a result of the same flawed premises: that utililty experienced by different people is a quantity with common objective units that can meaningfully summed, and given that, morality is defined by maximizing that sum across some universe of analysis. It differs from by-the-book utilitarianism in changing the universe of analysis, which changes the precise problems the flawed premises produce, but doesn't really solve anything fundamentally.
> Compare to Rawls’s Original Position, which uses an unborn person to make the hypothetical work but is ultimately about optimizing for happiness in an existing population.
No, its not; the Original Position neither deals with a fixed existing population nor is about optimizing for happiness in the summed-utility sense. Its more about optimizing the risk adjusted distribution of the opportunity for happiness.
Here I am replying to you 3 hours later. In the mean time, close to 20,000 people have died around the world [1]. Thousands more have been born. So if we're to move outside the realm of academics, as you put it, we force ourselves to contend with the fact that there is no "existing population" to maximize happiness for. The population is perhaps better thought of as a river of people, always flowing out to sea.
The Repugnant Conclusion is relevant, perhaps now more than at any time in the past, because we've begun to grasp -- scientifically, if not politically -- the finitude of earth's resources. By continuing the way we are, toward ever-increasing consumption of resources and ever-growing inequality, we are racing towards humanitarian disasters the likes of which have never been seen before.
[1] https://www.medindia.net/patients/calculators/world-death-cl...
We aren't doing that. Increasing human populations don't increase resource consumption because 1. resources aren't always consumed per-capita 2. we have the spare human capital to invent new cleaner technology.
It's backwards actually - decreasing populations, making for a deflating economy, encourage consumption rather than productivity investment. That's how so many countries managed to deforest themselves when wood fires were still state of the art.
Also, "resources are finite" isn't an argument against growth because if you don't grow /the resources are still finite/. So all you're saying is we're going to die someday. We know that.
> That's how so many countries managed to deforest themselves when wood fires were still state of the art.
It was mostly ship building that deforested eg the countries around the Mediterranean and Britain. Firewood was mostly harvested reasonably sustainably from managed areas like coppices in many places. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppicing
What do you mean by ever growing inequality? Global inequality has decreased in recent decades. (Thanks largely to China and to a lesser extent India moving from abject poverty to middle income status.)
By some measures we are also using less resources than we used to. Eg peak resource usage in the US, as measured in total _mass_ of stuff flowing through the economy, peaked sometime in the 1930s.
Have a look at the amount of energy used per dollar of GDP produced, too. Eg at https://yearbook.enerdata.net/total-energy/world-energy-inte...
First of all, you're imagining dividing happiness among more people, but imagining them all with the same amount of suffering. You're picturing a drudging life where people work all day and have barely any source of happiness. But if you can magically divide up some total amount of happiness, why not the same with suffering? This is the entire source of the word "repugnant", because it sounds like you get infinite suffering with finite happiness. That does not follow from anything utilitarianism stipulates; you've simply created an awful world and falsely called it utilitarianism. Try to imagine all these people living a nearly completely neutral life, erring a bit on the happier side, and it suddenly doesn't sound so bad.
Secondly, you're ignoring the fact that people can create happiness for others. What fixed finite "happiness" resource are we divvying up here? Surely a world with 10 billion people has more great works of art for all to enjoy than a world with 10 people, not to mention far less loneliness. It's crazy to think the total amount of happiness to distribute is independent of the world population.
There are many more reasonable objections to even the existence of that so-called "conclusion" without even starting on the many ways of dealing with it.
The current world population is about 8 billion.
By this argument, and also by your argument, it should actually be 999 billion. Or a number even higher than that.
The conclusion boils down to:
1. Find maximum population number earth can support.
2. Hit that number.
I do think that, when put this way, it seems simplistic.
The current world population is about 8 billion.
By my argument it should be 2 billion.
Your argument is therefore rather foolish.
If you have a sure-fire way to get half the people on the planet to give you $1, you can afford a yacht. Even if it means the tool you make for them only induces them to ever give you that $1 and not more... Why do you care? You have a yacht now. You can contemplate whether you should have made them something more useful from the relative safety and comfort of your yacht.
But I think that utilitarianism has a vague but somewhat related problem in treating “utility” as a one-dimensional quantity that you can add up? There are times when adding things together and doing comparisons makes a kind of sense, but it’s an abstraction. Nothing says you ought to quantify and add things up in a particular way, and utilitarianism doesn’t provide a way of resolving disputes about quantifying and adding. Not that it really tries, because it’s furthermore a metaphor about doing math, which isn’t the same thing as doing math.
Yes, it does. This is one of the most common (and in my view, most compelling) criticisms of utilitarianism.
I have started to think that you need at least two functions, in tension, to help forestall this kind of runaway behavior.
Maybe our descedants will elevate it outside of that with computers someday. Cause the human brain with just pieces of papers and text, probably cannot do it.
It's fundamentally broken in practice.
Except that it does according to many utilitarians. That's why it has been a topic of discussion for so long.
> you're imagining dividing happiness among more people, but imagining them all with the same amount of suffering
No. "Utility" includes both positive (happiness) and negative (suffering) contributions. The "utility" numbers that are quoted in the argument are the net utility numbers after all happiness and all suffering have been included.
> You're picturing a drudging life where people work all day and have barely any source of happiness.
Or a life with a lot of happiness but also a lot of suffering, so the net utility is close to zero, because the suffering almost cancels out the happiness. (This is one of the key areas where many if not most people's moral intuitions. including mine, do not match up with utilitarianism: happiness and suffering aren't mere numbers and you can't just blithely have them cancel each other that way.)
> if you can magically divide up some total amount of happiness, why not the same with suffering?
Nothing in the argument contradicts this. The argument is not assuming a specific scenario; it is considering all possible scenarios and finding comparisons between them that follow from utilitiarianism, but do not match up with most people's moral intuitions. It is no answer to the argument to point out that there are other comparisons that don't suffer from this problem; utilitarianism claims to be a universal theory of morality and ethics, so if any possible scenario is a problem for it, then it has a problem.
> you're ignoring the fact that people can create happiness for others
But "can" isn't the same as "will". The repugnant conclusion takes into account the possibility that adding more people might not have this consequence. The whole point is that utilitarianism (or more precisely the Total Utility version of utilitarianism, which is the most common version) says that a world with more people is better even if the happiness per person goes down, possibly way down (depending on how many more people you add), which is not what most people's moral intuitions say.
> It's crazy to think the total amount of happiness to distribute is independent of the world population.
The argument never makes this assumption. You are attacking a straw man. Indeed, in the comparisons cited in the argument, the worlds with more people have more total happiness--just less happiness per person.
When there are more immigrants who are allowed to work, the immigrants will make some money for themselves. What do they do with that money? They spend it, which grows the economy. Our economy, not some other country's economy.
If you were the only living person on this planet you would be in trouble. Thank God for other people being there too.
I'm going to guess you've never spoken to anyone who is sending money back to their family in their original country with every paycheck.
Not really the point of this conversation I guess but... yeah. It does happen more than you probably think. To the point where malls in my area have kiosks for wiring money to other countries for cheap.
I can’t imagine a lot of people out there who send all their money back home without spending some of it locally for self sustenance.
If that sent money ever comes back to the domestic economy, then you are back to the previous situation.
If it doesn't come back, that's even better: because then your central bank can print more money to make up for the disappearance. Essentially, you got the foreigner to perform services in return for some ink and paper.
I suppose different countries have different strategies on this, rich countries are trying to benefit from foreign labor and capture some taxes from them while less rich countries are trying to increase their haul by encouraging their citizens to become foreign workers (example: Philippines).
I mean if USA had never allowed immigrants to come here where would we be economically?
Yeah two people only.
Well Your scenario can easily be countered with the imaginary scenario that you have a town with 1 billion residents, far too little housing, no green space left due to trying to provide housing and the city only has natural resources for perhaps 300.000.000.
Now 100.000.000 immigrants arrive. There is not enough food, water, hygiene. Hopefully, opening delis will solve the issue.
Yes, it is absurd. But no more so than a world of 2.
History though does prove your theory right. When proud and brave Europeans immigrated to what would become the United States.
"When they arrive there are no stores to buy goodies from because who would create such a store for just 2 people? Perhaps an immigrant, could open a deli!""
Thankfully for the native people's immigrants came in to create a consumer capitalist culture.
Can you imagine the utter horror if they native peoples were allowed to keep their versions of society going and develop it the way they wanted. They sure were blessed by the immigrants. A lot the natives' peoples also became xenophobes and we sure now what bastards' xenophobes are.
The reason being that someone moving closer to you increases demand for labor more than supply, and immigrants generally have complimentary (slightly different) skills to natives. So the person whose labor the immigrant most competes with is another immigrant.
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-immigration-doesnt-reduce-...
As for remittances/brain drain, there are certainly theoretical issues but it seems to be okay in the end because it boosts investment in the originating country.
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-skilled-immigration-usuall...
I think in general immigration from say Mexico to US is a loss for Mexico and a win for US.
Overpopulation could be a problem but when people become better off financially they for some reason tend to have fewer children.
Not so for B2C SaaS. The utilities are always measured in dollars and they always aggregate by simple addition. You can't simply redefine the problem away by changing the economic assumptions, because they exist in physical space and not in theory space.
Utilitarianism opens a lot of questions about comparability of utility (or happiness) of different people as well as summation. Is it a totally ordered set? Is it a partially ordered set? Perhaps utility is incomparable (that'd be sad and kind of defeat the whole doctrine, but still).
Also, can unhappiness be compensated by happiness? We unthinkingly rush to treat unhappiness as we would negative numbers and try to sum that with happiness, but what if it doesn't work? What if the person who has no happiness or unhappiness isn't in the same place as the person who is equally happy and unhappy (their dog died, but they found a million $ on the same day)?
A more typical classroom question would be about chopping up a healthy person for organs to fix X unhealthy people -- is there a number of unhealthy people which would justify killing a healthy person for spare parts?
That may be true for some things, but for many decisions it is not true.
There is enough food to feed everyone if we choose to distribute it properly. There is enough housing to house everyone. etc. etc.
There may not be enough cardiologists or Dali originals ...
This is perfect, because now they are all equally incentivized to do something about it. They're motivated to work together and collaborate for change.
If you do any other split where some people will be very happy and others very unhappy, you've now created certain category of people who are incentivized to maintain the current system and repress any desire for change from the unhappy people.
That reminds me of the SMBC "Existifier" comic, which satirizes the idea that merely helping something exist is morally positive.
1) Population isn't infinite, you can't continue this for too long
2) Your assumption completely depends on how costly it is to increase +1 happiness and to increase +1 user, you don't even mention it. And these costs are not fixed, it increases, so even if it is cheaper to add +1 user in the beginning, it will not continue to be cheaper indefinitely
So, nothing is preventing you from increasing happiness at the same time you increase users.
Craigslist, sure, but Reddit has fallen off a cliff in terms of content quality since the whole API/3rd party apps debacle. More confirmation of the author's point, I suppose - valuing the marginal user and a broader base over what's already there.
And I think that makes sense. The original Reddit is full of technical people with ad blockers, weird hobbies, weird communities, and various undesirables. Keeping this herd of cats happy is extremely tricky, selling anything to them is extremely difficult, and there's all sorts of complex drama that needs managing.
So it seems that Reddit decided that to make the site more profitable, manageable and attractive to advertisers, all this weirdness needs to be pushed out over time. Drive out the technical users and weird unprofitable communities, and replace with as much mindless scrolling as possible.
And what does the existence of such a place at all mean to a prospective advertiser? Imagine a viral picture of your ad next to one of those posts.
But okay, let's ignore porn. How about subreddits that deal with subjects like depression, gender issues, politics, etc? What do you sell to those? Maybe a book or two but probably not very much. And they're also ripe for "hilarious" ad/content mismatches.
It seems to me that from the advertising point of view, Reddit would be a lot more desirable to advertise on if it was nothing but endless cute cat pictures.
Surely there should be marketers that see "Imagine a viral picture of your ad next to one of those posts." and realize that everything apart from "Imagine a viral picture of your ad" is often irrelevant.
I feel that they may have been a media firm, and not a platform. When Victoria conducted AMAs, Reddit was a burgeoning cultural force.
Maybe if they had gone that route they would be their “ideal” state. However that leads to no billionaire club IPO/Exit.
Reddit is like a distillation of that, the logical end point of it ... if that is a dead end, Google is in for a rough time with the pathway they are pursuing with Chrome.
And by "never worked very well," I don't just mean "We ran ads without good results." The whole experience was just sort of confusing and underwhelming, especially when compared to other channels like FB or Google. We suspected that the majority of our clicks were bots, based on our own analytics. The targeting always felt unreliable. Support interactions were weird. In general, the platform always just felt kind of... janky.
Don't know if that's still the case now, but at least as of a year or so ago, I knew a lot of people working in digital marketing who felt the same about the platform.
Also related, Cory Doctorow's essay on this where he labeled it 'enshittification' - https://pluralistic.net/2023/01/21/potemkin-ai/#hey-guys
This exact same fall happens to any and all social media that succeeds, and is not in any way unique to Reddit.
It grows, and with growth comes complexity and greater expenses to keep it all propped up. In order to pay for those expenses, advertising revenue must increase. To increase advertising revenue, the site must be more 'family friendly' and have stricter moderation. More users means that you can't be as personal and must be more automated. You don't want bad publicity because that can turn advertisers away. If you want more advertising revenue you need more users, which means you need to sand off any rough edges and unique appeal and instead appeal as broadly as possible, regardless of the original intent of the site. To appeal broadly you must add every feature that everyone else has and forget being unique. Broader appeal brings in people who reduce the quality of the content. The larger the site gets, the more appealing it becomes to bots and propoganda. In order to maximize impact for either personal (ego) or professional (money/political) reasons, you need to post content that hits people where they're vulnerable - cute, funny, infuriating, etc.
So, the product experiences enshittification. It's just inevitable. It will always happen to social media if it grows.
You can have a small, niche social media that is good but will never grow - or you can have a large, casually-used social media that is awful. There is no in-between. Anything in-between inevitably slides towards one or the other.
Essentially, Reddit always had to IPO.
See how many people worked at reddit in 2021 and in 2022.
It went from something like 500 to 2000
And even if, the CEO said that reddit was never profitable and that's or bullshit or a clear sign of how badly can a company be managed.
I wonder if there were any dissenters inside of Reddit who have actually been on the Internet in 2007, desperately warning the designers that they were "Farking" themselves with that redesign.
at least compared to most other local governor candidates?
The book summary was interesting too: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_Not_News,_It%27s_FARK
Over time, though, the namespace starts to get cluttered. You have to go to r/realTrueSubreddit2 to find a decent community now. Also, r/realTrueSubreddit1 was taken by nazis/trolls who were mad at getting banned for using slurs.
OP makes it seem like Reddit's users lose something when Reddit panders to a Marl. But I've observed that the majority of them don't care (enough). Some even like changes we view as invasive. I talked to someone once who told me "Aren't personalized ads so great? I was looking for new shoes, then I see an ad for the perfect shoes. A few clicks and now I have great shoes!" These people exist, and I suspect that they have to exist for ads to generate any revenue.
I do think that it's wrong to paint those who (still) use Reddit/etc. as brainless scroll-zombies, though. They just care about different things.
But if I actually visit the subreddit, I see many posts from within the last 24 hours with 300+ comments each. Is it possible subredditstats.com had some kind of regression in its counting around that time? It could be related to the API changes.
Last week I realized I still kept doing a bunch of reddit searches so I went back and tried the app.
The app is not that bad, hope the users stick around
If you find a much finer-grained niche subreddit you will probably find the quality is still 2010 Reddit.
This is hilarious and sad because it feels too accurate. Damnit Marl, please for the sake of us power user minority, please change.
Alternatively and more seriously, I do hope to see markets emerge that target power users. I'm not optimistic though. Open source seems like the only real hope there.
Why is it that every single company only wants to serve the same one of those personas?
Good startups target power users. By "good" I mean companies that find true PMF and grow exponentially at near-zero CAC (i.e. the ones that earn - not buy - their growth).
Growth-oriented startups then run out of power users and start targeting the wider population; when the latter outnumber the former, power users fall by the wayside at best and are explicitly told to fuck off as uneconomical at worst.
Acquisition-oriented startups sell their power user base to a large company that’s unlikely to care about them and proceeds to tell them to fuck off (usually after some large-company-scale fleeting instant, like a couple of quarters).
That is why, most of the time, I now preemptively fuck off when I see a (VC-funded) startup targeting me as a power user of whatever they’re making. I’ve been burned too many times, and with all due respect to the cuddly techies running things at the moment, they don’t own the company.
To me it's a disappointing effigy that the author is conjuring up and then burning because they're unwilling to address the fact that the corporation they work for and the ceaseless chase of "social media platforms" drives this behavior more than the imagined "Marl's" of the world ever did.
the fact that the corporations are doing that, and chasing the Marls is the foundational premise of the article. He's not blaming it on the Marls. He's blaming it on the companies chasing them.
There's cable TV.
To be fair though, cable TV was the original Poo-To-Marl Service and has been getting supplanted by free versions of itself. So I guess it proves your point anyway.
I (pretty much single handedly) made a reasonably profitable mobile app. It was my bread and butter for a decade. It has millions of downloads and hundreds of thousands of monthly active users. It's a “power” tool, not a game.
Unfortunately, it depends on servers for a lot of it's core features. There are no accounts, data passes through my servers and, aside from caching, gets deleted as soon as feasible. I really wish I could avoid it, tried to reduce this as much as possible, and made servers as cheap as possible in the process. But it's still in the $100s/month, which I can't justify without compensation.
I tried donations, and have ad free paid versions: they don't cover costs. Ads are 95% of revenue.
People who paid $1 half a year ago will complain that I killed their pet if the server is down for an hour on a weekend. They've paid their hard won $1 after trialing the product for a month, and feel entitled to forever support of something that has running costs, in both hardware and brain power. Whereas I've made my buck, and have every incentive to tell them to f-off.
People on ads will give me a tenth of a cent everytime they use the app, so I have the incentive to keep then coming back. Of course I can be sleazy and trick them into clicking ads, or drown them in popup hell, or whatever.
But the point is, if $0.001 is enough to make a nice profit from each use of my app, there's no better model than ads. A $1 sale means I'm loosing money on a power user after a few years. A $1 yearly subscription is something users just won't do, especially without fancy upgrades. And, in all models I've tried, 95% of revenue is always ads. Sales don't even cover the costs of the sales channels.
That's why ads took over the internet, and you won't be turning that back.
OTOH, for everyone of you (users willing to pay $1 for a tool that'll solve a problem they have every once in a while), I'm able to find 1000 that'll just install the ad supported app, use it that one time and forget about it (until the next time they need it).
Trust me: the barrier to get even $1 from a user for an app the majority uses once a week tops for a couple of minutes, is immense, especially if they can run it for free, in exchange for the annoyance of a single banner ad, that you can dismiss (and go full screen) after 30s, if you do use it longer than that.
But the free version must exist, for discoverablity if nothing else, and experience shows that degrading it to drive sales only jeopardizes total revenue. So ads it is.
But if I were a user of your app, I would personally prefer to pay you $5/yr for whatever "fancy upgrades" it would require for that to get you enough subscribers to be workable.
But this is a personal preference! It's definitely the case that most people prefer to use free (apologies, I don't know if this applies to your app, but it usually does) crap.
But I do think a niche of people like me totally exists, and is actually not that small.
As I commented on TFA, and will gladly repeat here:
Wow. Well put. The scariest thing is, this translates even to domain-specific apps such as Navionics Boating. I use it every time I go out, because, somehow, they've not yet managed to touch the charts and rendering and it just works, better than any of the competitors. But, the rest of the interface is like a Fisher Price toy. You want to add a waypoint based on a specific lat/long you got out of a pilot book? There is no such thing as "Add waypoint" in the UI, nooo, you enter the lat/long in "Search" and then tap on something or other to add it as a waypoint.
This attitude manifests itself throughout the application's UI, as if, indeed, the application is optimized for "Marl’s tolerance for user interface complexity is zero.".
> This is why I like to pay for things. This dynamic only really exists for things that are given away for free.
Navionics Boating is a paid application, and it's not cheap. There is no free tier, just a 14-day trial period.
Despite that, it seems to have gone down the same route of Marl-ifying the interface as a free app would have done.
So, my point is, that this dynamic exists even for things that you pay money for.
So, I guess it would require a lot more research to make a real argument about this, but to me, this just sounds like an application that isn't very good, but I don't think is the same phenomenon described by the article. I definitely don't think charging money is any kind of guarantee of quality. Software is hard to make and lots of software sucks just because it sucks.
But the difference I see is that I think Navionics Boating has an incentive to make that app better. That if they make improvements for users like you, that will likely impact their bottom line positively, because they'll attract and retain more users like you.
But free mass-market consumer apps have the opposite incentive. They are incentivized to dumb things down to the lowest common denominator, because there will always be > 1 user that they attract with that approach for every 1 user like you that they alienate.
Basically: I think free business models can ignore retention, whereas for-pay subscription models can't, and that's why I prefer them.
I think that only holds if you have enough competition that it starts making a real dent in your profit margin.
I don't have any proper data, but pretty much everyone I've met in the sailing community just uses Navionics. Fair enough; the company has been in the ECDIS business for many many years before smartphones even existed, and their electronic charts are good.
Their competitors, based on my subjective use of some of them, more or less fall into two groups:
(1) Similarly big players. Basically just C-MAP (parent is Navico, also in ECDIS for many years).
(2) Startups: savvy navvy and Orca.
I've only really used (1) enough to form a proper opinion. I originally picked it because it was way cheaper (50 EUR/year for global charts), but gave up since Navionics, despite being Fisher Price, at the end of the day just works, is fast, offline, and does not crash. OTOH C-MAP feels like a neglected side-line of the parent company designed to steer you into buying their expensive chart plotter brands (B&G mainly).
To be fair, I also tried a FOSS alternative (OpenCPN), but the app suffers from such a lack of UI design of any kind that I don't even want to go there, so I don't count it as a real competitor. And there's also Imray Navigator which is surprisingly good, but a different product category (raster charts).
TL;DR: Boating is making good money for Navionics, there's not really an alternative, so they don't care.
Whenever I express a negative sentiment about some aspect of modern software that takes away power and choice from the user in favor of baby-tier handholding and get the usual reply that goes something like "well the average user doesn't need or care about that so it shouldn't exist!", this is who I imagine typing out the comment on the other side of the screen.
If this were true, the app probably wasn't worth having in the first place. An app that actually does something Marl needs, or enables him to do something he wants to do doesn't need to catch his attention with shiny things. The thing that will hook Marl is accomplishing what he set out to do, and generally that should be possible without spending a bunch of time customizing settings, but having sensible defaults doesn't mean those options/settings aren't valuable.
Marl doesn't need to change, and it'd be a shame if he (most users) were forced to tinker with a bunch of settings and change a bunch of defaults to do the things they want. Flexibility and customization is still important for the folks who need that though and useful software that does a good job offering that while also having sane defaults have an opportunity to be popular with everybody.
And if the app does the things you want for Marl, then, as the article states, it makes all economic sense to make the app worse for Marl to catch Narl. Marl will use it anyway (since for him the app was worth having in the first place), but your effort will make a difference in getting Narl.
And if you can make the app really good for Narl as well, that doesn't change anything, because there always will be another marginal user, and there is a financial motivation to add all the shiny bullshit (at the expense of everyone else) to catch that marginal user.
I guess you're right. Marl wouldn't be a marginal user. The economic sense of attracting the marginal user Narl still only holds true to a point. Make the app bad enough by appealing to Narl and you'll lose Marl to a competing app that doesn't suck as bad. Narl is fickle, doesn't really need the app, and will be easily tempted to move on to other apps. Not a great long term investment. Marl needs the app and as long as it does what he needs without pissing him off the app has got a user they can profit from. It seems very shortsighted to drive away your core users to temporarily attract the less interested marginal ones.
Thankfully, I can't think of many apps that have gotten worse by aggressively targeting the Narls of the world. When apps get worse, it's usually greed that gets in the way. Anti-features that even narl hates, but which stuffs the developer's pockets with cash.
What's crazy to me is that 25+ million people on this Earth can program, and how many of them get to decide the UIs that everyone else uses? I myself, suck at UI programming. But that's because UI programming is labyrinthine, arcane, and generally requires becoming an expert in a number of extremely poorly thought-out frameworks that are often stupendously complicated. (Web, I am looking at you.)
Why can't I rip apart the UI of an app I use every day and rearrange it the way I want? And I mean, far more than toolbars and rearranging drop down menus. (BTW, remember those? Those were great).
Seriously though, I have written many hundreds of thousands of lines of code in my day; I fancy myself not super bad at programming, yet I cannot take apart a random GUI app and make it do what I want. Even when it's open source. I feel like this is an unaddressed problem; the UI cafeteria people keep serving us an ever-changing menu of crap, and I feel powerless to even lock in the few UIs that I do end up getting good at. They'll take that away soon enough.
It'd probably have to be free, fast, secure, simple, attractive, flexible, powerful, able to work with all kinds of platforms/screens/inputs, and make creating GUIs easier for programmers to create in general (seems like there's a need there), but even then it'd have to contend with companies who want control over what users see, artists who think they know better than everyone else, and support teams that want documentation full of meaningful screenshots.
IMO there's no reason you can't. Just yesterday I was playing with pavucontrol and thought "There needs to be a GNU Radio like view, where I can drop boxes which represent sound generating/taking programs/devices and draw connecting lines arbitrarily," then I thought why not the same thing for video treating even the contents of windows themselves as video sources too!
Table formats are easier to implement I guess...
Because it is very hard to do something like this, so common people can do it. (you can change every html UI in theory)
I tried to make something like this and basically failed (though in the very long run I might get there eventually). GUI editors are hard to get right and the ones I liked, like Adobe Flex Builder (with Flash UI as a bonus) are gone. But those were also no newb tools. But flash itself was and that was the main reason for its success.
And you get the data through API calls - so in theory one can build your own UI on top of a known service. There are rare examples of this done succesfully (for HN for example), but usually you won't get very far in a reasonable amount of time, because often it is a mess behind the shiny UI. (And because this is not encouraged behavior by the service provider)
another one that i'd like to think has an open enough API is mastodon/fediverse, assuming they actually adhere to the activitypub spec, it should (should) be relatively straightforward to write a UI on top of the API. And it seems ok, there's quite a number of mastodon "apps", but less for stuff like misskey or pleroma.
I'm sure there are other contemporaneous examples, but suffice to say that some developers still care about this, today!
You know how the saying goes: The best things in life are Free Software!
Pretty much, yeah.
But are you really that different? There are just too many websites amd apps and new ones are getting generated every moment and time and attention is limited. So I also open and quickly close many of them.
I don't think that is the problem here.
But to your conclusion I agree.
The problem is that every group of power users has their own idea of what they want, and they're _very_ stubborn about providing features that they don't personally use or like.
I've run across these, though I can't find the link now, there was a suite of "apps for power users like us", compile 'em from source, if you don't like that then go fuck yourself.
Which is a fine way to limit who asks for tech support, but it's not much of a market.
I recall years ago (maybe this was late '00s or early 2010s) when Facebook changed their interface to be much more "Twitter like", i.e. a semi-random list of items in your feed. Before that, for me it was much easier to actually follow conversations with my real friends. After that it was just a sea of posts - and by the way if you scrolled past a post and wanted to find it again, good luck. After all everything must be new and fresh to keep you engaged!!
This type of architecture has helped to lower the value of online relationships, and has continued to destroy our attention spans. I guess the only good news is that I feel like it's gotten so bad I can hardly use apps like FB or Instagram anymore, which is probably a good thing.
Obviously, "number of fun dates" is a lot harder to measure, relying as it would on surveys with low response % and a variety of circumstantial factors. Whereas you can easily measure DAU, and put them on nice charts that point up and to the right to justify a bonus for some executive. Such is life.
Finally, there's a level of personal responsibility. Code doesn't get worse without developers making it that way. If you think your job is bullshit, making things worse, say something, and leave. Do your best to not be part of the problem.
So you want me to give up my mid-six figures job so your dates go a little bit better?
Some people simply suspend moral judgement entirely in circumstances where someone else is calling the shots. They no more regard themselves as culpable for the bad outcomes as they do an automobile operated by a drunk driver. At a certain point, many people just switch off the moralizing, automatically assigning all of the responsibility to the order-giver.
It's an interesting phenomenon. A side effect, I find, is that people get very very upset when you name and shame individual employees doing unethical things at work that are legal and fall under the umbrella of "corporate initiatives" such as implementing antipatterns. The guilt for such seems to be perceived to fall with management or "product people", not developers, even though the developers are the ones who wrote the code.
Same for, say, warfighters. People don't regard the conscripted infantrymen at fault for the deaths, even though it is often literally their hand on the trigger.
- the gatekeepers of the craft are random and inconsistent and the competency standards are suspect
- the people on the other side of your employment relationship won't do the same
- leaving for self respect may not look good into getting you your next position. It may even harm your chances if you quit too soon
- For the US, losing healthcare benefits for the love of the craft seems just like shooting yourself in the foot for no good reason
We should strive to be better, but criticism about not living up to the craft often involves just a difference of opinion or preferences
Users use dating apps with the intent of not needing dating apps. A dating app that works well destroys it's user base. Their desired user base is people looking for hookups. Is it any wonder the apps have degraded into stuff pretty much only useful for hookups?
That's the thing with dating apps/sites. If you succeed too well, you've lost 2 users.
I'd rather a "pay for 3-6 months of full access upfront, a 3 day trial option" than a subscription model for anything where there's a chance i won't be using it in 3-6 months. when i see a dating site ask for a year upfront i know they're not going to actually help me.
I met my wife (and two close friends) on OKCupid over 15 years ago, so i remember what it was, and what a site could be again, just not OKC
the longest i've seen is 6mo (at least thats OUR longest) and while fewer people use this, it captures the demographic that is either self aware and think they'll need it for a long time, or folks that are happier with dating around. the point of these longer subs isn't because we're willingly creating dark patterns to avoid helping our users, i promise
also, the company i work for is focused on more serious relationships. we are focusing heavily on reducing ghosting, lowering treating people like they're disposable, etc.
Let's face it: in general we're not good at nuance and that has downstream effects in many places.
The escape hatch is probably to have businesses that mostly stand on their own, sustained by their users and don't need to convince random marketers and crypto bros that they're worth paying attention to.
When online services maximizes the number of daily users, perhaps in the hundreds of millions, the vast majority of them won't be very interested. So of course any data driven service will optimize keeping uninterested users occupied. That does explain a lot actually.
They are created more for entertainment and to blast out as many videos as possible without any concern to accuracy.
Basically all these platforms use dwell time as an indication that you liked (or at least were interested in) a video. So then these sites got flooded with completely inane videos of the "Just wait for it!!!" variety that last for 5 minutes, always making it seem like something is going to happen, but it's just video of an intersection or people at the grocery store or whatever.
Take photo sharing as an example.
Early Flickr was amazing. It had tons of features - great varied groups of all types, a huge licensed image search system, great tags, etc. I joined regional groups, and also criticism groups for street photos, etc. Their comment system wasn't just text, it had annotations and they were doing interesting things with geolocation, too.
Then yahoo killed it and now Instagram rules, with fewer features, more addiction and less depth. Flickr had addiction loops too but that wasn't the main focus.
What causes this shrinking of product space?
Is it that the first companies to get mindshare have more product-exploration power than later entries? So if the early companies are creative, they can expand the product space a lot, and uniquely have time to do so. If so, we can just blame yahoo for ruining Flickr, and they actually had a chance.
Alternatively, maybe at late stages competition is so high you'll always get the extreme focus on the best DAU maximizing loops? And eventual monopoly with a small product.
The fact that it also kills known useful things like VS, Photoshop isn't recognized and we continue to allow this invalid argument
this is a good hypothesis, except smartphone apps have much less UI feature complexity than is possible on a smartphone, i.e. it still seems to be a conscious choice to dumb down smart phone apps beyond what the UI and users can handle. A familiar example is banking apps, I have accounts at a number of large US banks, and in every case the phone apps leave out swaths of capabilities that their websites have, things like letting me see what Zelles I've sent to a particular person, "contact the bank" messaging, etc.
image editing apps are another example, 100's of them in the app stores, but they're less feature rich than Windows Paint from 30 years ago. when they do something fancy, it's frequently because they are an app for doing that one thing.
> or are users getting dumber/lazier because products are becoming less sophisticated?
or, in search of increased customer growth, is deeper product penetration into the bottom half of the sophistication bell-curve continually sieving ideas through fewer synaptic connections/simpler semantic nets
Now, The average user is a 10-65 year old person using a smartphone.
Companies dumb down their products to appeal to the masses, who then get dumber because they have nothing nudging them to get better. It's a vicious cycle imo.
Once they're bought up by some other company, in particular any conglomerate, it gets worked on by a bunch of people who are experts at building products in general, not experts in that product's field. So they naturally try stuff that is less of a fit for the field it was originally targeted at... and potentially a better fit for "can make any money at all", I'm not trying to claim the new owners are all idiots. Just that the driving interests and expertise have shifted from what originally made it compelling, and that'll nearly always become less coherent as a product. At least until they have fully rebuilt it in their image.
And then purchasers in the same field can sometimes escape this "now built by generalists" trap. Sometimes.
They're far from the only company purchases happening though, e.g. many small companies that grow too quickly sell to something larger to simply have the manpower and money to handle the new scale, and sometimes that ends up better for everyone. You just don't usually hear about these because they quietly work, and they don't involve globally-recognized names.
Though Flickr does exist (owned by SmugMug). No idea how their finances are. I expect so so.
You're right that community has gone away to a large degree. But I'm not sure how much power Flickr had to influence that other than becoming Instagram--which the prosumer crowd would mostly have hated.
Sometimes the mainstream crowd moves on from you and your choices are to more or less either let them or adapt in ways that aren't true to your vision.
Perhaps Ycombinator is the wrong place to bring up such a point, but the idea of constant growth in user base as the source of value in a company almost certainly contributes significantly to the problems discussed in the article.
What happened to community? The businesses I like to deal with are rooted in my area, owned and operated by local people with faces, and I willingly go interact with them.
I have no such loyalty to large faceless internet companies, and negative loyalty to companies that enshittify everything as a way to eke out profit when bound to forever growth fantasies.
Also, the idea that the economy requires growth is BS, it's just that economic stagnation or recession currently means some people are going to be starving. And if you actually look at the world, with its still growing population in some countries, or an aging population in others, it's pretty clear why people starve when growth stops, and it has nothing to do with capitalism, or The Man.
Isn't malnutrition a huge issue in Japan? That and massive increases in poverty especially for the elderly?
That applies to the economy as a whole. It doesn't mean that every single corporation in the economy has to grow, beyond the general rate of GDP growth.
It's worse than that. For the present system to function correctly, growth must continue indefinitely. Even just a slower pace of growth constitutes a crisis under our current economic system.
The article does mention monopoly power, but it uses instead the term 'network effects'. These are not exactly the same, but in the realm of social media and similar platforms, they're very close.
If it throws off profits, those can be invested in other businesses, not in growing the restaurant.
Here, you have various ideologies of user interface. One is approach that users are idiots/"easily confused" and need to be treated-as-such/"given clear direction. Another seems to this reference to the marginal user - that our product is craptasm of dark pattern 'cause we have to satisfy the least common denominator (it's Google, so maybe we're just on dark gray patterns currently).
You do, sure. But you're not a marginal user.
A lot of the fine article reads to me as a sort of elitism, albeit one I find myself falling prey to: the tyranny of the masses, the normies, the filthy casuals, that ruin everything.
I'm not sure where I'm going with this train of thought (possibly derailed, or just no steam), but I'd like to throw in that elitism is not always a bad thing.
This is a straw man. The primary source of value is the future cash flow. Since a long future is considered, growth is highly prized. I consider this a major achievement of mankind, to be able to value the future, today. Without this reasoning, financing for new businesses would cease to exist.
Exponential growth is only expected in software because the development costs are so high and the marginal costs are so low. There's zero cost to growth, which makes it a winner-take-all market.
A business that’s shrinking but throwing off cash is with a lot still. Only the valuation multiple is based on growth.
Exponential growth is expected in startups of all industries, software only makes the margins and distribution easier.
Indeed, and it shows when you look at how and where money is invested. Transoceanic fiber cables [1]... on paper it's a Good Thing that Africa and other historically piss poor regions get access to fast Internet, no doubt there. Or that Facebook pays many millions of dollars to regional ISPs for zero-rating, which helps them build out infrastructure.
But IMO, this is not genuine. The priorities for the mega tech companies clearly are to get more users hooked to their walled gardens, as the Western markets are already saturated and no further growth of the MLM pyramid/snowball scam is possible. Receiver nations are grasping at straws, it's obvious why - they need the infrastructure and have no way to pay for it - but it's going to bite them in the ass in the mid future.
[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/google-facebook-giant-unders...
The article seems to just glance over this crucial fact.
Online dating sites have gotten worse because the Match Group monopolizes them. There's hardly any competition. Same with Google Search. Monopolies suck. They start out good, in order to attract all of the users, and then once they've acquired all of the users, they turn to unchecked profit maximization and stop caring about the users.
It should be called the tyranny of the monopoly, not the the tyranny of the marginal user.
OKCupid had a model that increases the likelihood of matching with someone and ...never using OKCupid again.
Match.com realizes that fundamental flaw. For their business to survive, they HAVE to be bad at the service they purport to provide. They don't want people to have long term relationships, they want people to use a dating site.
There are "societal good" functions that companies might provide, for which a profit motive is wholly un-applicable without destroying the function itself.
There are some things that you simply CANNOT express in a "free market" because the measure of their success cannot be expressed in market terms.
That was OKCupids claim, but was this claim ever proven through data that directly affirmed that as an outcome?
Often these websites have tiered profit schemes that can milk a user for $100+/m. Sometimes they gamify it, like loot boxing, to make it more lucrative. I don't remember OKCupid being any different.
But if OKCupid drags this process out so you only get n matches per month, they maximize revenue while maybe encouraging people to appreciate each other's differences.
Like getting a "crappy" CD from Columbia House...might as well listen to it. Maybe it'll grow on you!
Sure you can. If you want to measure the success of your matchmaking company in market terms, you could charge users for your matchmaking service and then return their money if they don't get married. You put your money where your mouth is by betting on the success of the couples you suggest.
I think companies don't try this strategy because it would be too expensive for the end user. You would need to charge thousands of dollars to make up for the hard work of matchmaking and the risk of bad matches. Not something an internet startup can do at scale.
No online service can possibly promise to be more thorough in their due diligence than the actual humans who chose to marry each other.
Also, if the relationship is abusive and the abused spouse is beaten into a marriage, are they owed a refund upon divorce? Death? Incentivizing speedy marriages, as opposed to good matches, is unambiguously bad for individuals and society at large.
There's not really a way to do rent-seeking on matchmaking without breaking matchmaking, so maybe don't seek rent on the matching itself? Just let your revenue stream be advertising. It's fine.
It’s not really unlimited and people tend to take less overall
That's a good idea. In this hypothetical app, if a couple stays together for a couple of years they should forfeit the right to get their money back even if they later break up. This reduces the amount of cash the company has to keep, at the cost of merely promising years-long relationships instead of marriages.
> Incentivizing speedy marriages, as opposed to good matches, is unambiguously bad for individuals and society at large.
How is that unambiguous? It seems to me like an empirical question. Are people taking too many risks with their relationships, or too little? The answer is different for each person, or even for the same person at different stages of their life. Very ambiguous stuff.
If you're telling me that more abusive marriages is better for society, I don't think we have enough common ground to discuss this.
0. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/meet-catch-and-keep/...
1. https://www.ucdavis.edu/curiosity/news/covid-19-isolation-li...
Also the free market still needs a central authority for any proofs.
There are other online services like Uber and AirBnB in which it is much easier to cheat by communicating with your counterpart outside of the app, that way you don't have to pay commissions and so on. It's a serious problem for them.
But this hypothetical online service marries people. Fraud is much riskier there, because divorce can be extremely expensive if your partner-in-fraud doesn't cooperate.
> the free market still needs a central authority for any proofs
Isn't marriage a relatively centralized institution? The central authority that marries people can easily provide proof that they indeed married some people.
That said, firms exist with that model.
So here I am, downvoting my own posts.
I will say that your idea is trivially gamed. What startup is going to keep the legal staff on retainer to sue every person who "breaks up" with their partner, gets their refund check, and uses it to buy an engagement ring?
So if A wants to date B and bids 60 and B will pay 40 to date A the match will cost A 20 plus fees.
This would cut to the chase amazingly fast, which isn’t what people want.
Sorry but I have quite a viscerally bad reaction to such a proposal. Sure it could work in some sense of finding value price pairs or whatever where people's preferences aren't clear.
But it also seems extremely dystopian and horrifying, particularly applied to the dating market. It would be similar with finding friends. People do this naturally and normally on their own for free no problem if you put them in a big room together. It neeeds no incentive
I dunno. I kinda look forward to the news stories about the Economic Collapse of 2035 being due to the market finally realizing that too many supposedly AAA Date-Backed Securities were actually Non-Investment Grade Junk Dates, and the subsequent revaluation of the Date Market caused the entire banking system to become insolvent because all the dates they were holding on their books as marked to maturity are in fact never going to be anything but immature, and consequently must be marked down to their actual market value of Zero.
I mean, it's a pretty realistic economic threat. Who doesn't have a story of something they anticipated being a AAA Rated Date turning out to have junk date status? Definitely a lot of mismatched incentives all the way around.
I think you just reinvented sex work, but somehow made it more icky?
The main and big problem with this if anyone would consider it for dating for real, which probably they wouldn’t so no big worry, is what is in the price? So A just paid 20 dollars for the pleasure of having a date with B. What did A buy? Does B have to stay at the date for a set time? Is B obligued to listen enthusiastically to A? Does B have to laugh at A’s jokes? Even if they are lame? And then of course what happens when A thinks they paid for sex and B thinks not?
Or possibly expensive engagement/wedding rings in non-jewellery form.
On a separate point, some of my socialist (and in a few cases literally communist) friends assert that the issues at the intersection of sex work with consent also apply to all other work under capitalism; I don't have a strong counter-argument to this.
Money is fundamentally unnatural, so it's not surprising that it feels wrong and icky in a lot of situations.
I think that is only sometimes true, usually in situations where relationships are mainly economic decisions. As prosperity increases and pay/power differences between genders shrink, it is becoming less frequently true, and less true on a per-relationship basis, over time.
Revenue sources would include:
- Ads for local businesses, classes, and events.
- Annual subscription which is cheaper after the first year and gives you discount codes to events and restaurants.
Once you get the site to work for date nights, let people be open to getting matched based on similar activity interests. Then you can solve the problem of two users finding a specific joint activity.
Would this solve the problem of finding people to have sex with? No, but computers are bad at sex.
Would this solve the problem married couples have of picking a place to eat? Hopefully.
My friend didn't meet her husband on it, but she did meet her future husband's roommate.
Back in the early 2010s there was a dating site that was based around this premise. You would post a specific activity and see if someone wanted to join you for it. I didn't personally use it (as intended) but it was a great place to get fun date night activities with my partner. I think they realized that use case (date night planning) and eventually added this as a feature. I don't remember the name of the site unfortunately, someone else might. I would be surprised if it's still around.
edit: Found it! it was called HowAboutWe.com.
https://techcrunch.com/tag/howaboutwe/
https://archive.nytimes.com/bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/07/1...
With this one, however, you defined the qualities you were seeking and the times and part of the city you were available for a date. They would match people up based on the time, location and OkCupid match rating (mostly, I think) and would ask if you wanted to meet the person. It gave you just their basic info and a distorted photo.
I used it for a while and don't remember why I stopped but it was one of the best dating apps I've used. None of the dates went anywhere, but it was a really simple and easy way to meet new people.
No photos until just before the event started, because photos turn things into a beauty contest and people start judging on looks, which is where, IMHO, all my competition in the same space went wrong.
Events were scheduled for as little as 4 hours out, and only up to 72hrs in the future. The entire app flow was designed to be as close as possible to a "I am bored, entertain me now" button.
Investors hated it, two sided marketplaces are apparently something they like to avoid due to difficulties around execution.
People were desperate for this type of service though, for one marketing campaign my user acquisition cost dropped as low as 15 cents per user.
(If any investor reading wants to throw me a million I'll start it back up again. ;) Solving the loneliness epidemic in America's cities is a huge chance to do some social good!)
This is a fantastic project. I also briefly worked on something similar, but left when I learned more about my coworkers.
Bootstrapped, COVID hit right before the launch date.
Infra costs were ~$200 a month to support 10k DAU. I'd just come off of working on embedded, so I was used to writing really efficient code. :)
> At what scale would you be able to support your burn rate?
Just needed to cover my living expenses mortgage and salaries!
Obviously to scale money was needed for ad campaigns, but people are lonely and offering to solve loneliness has a high conversion rate!
I burned through my savings and was ready to launch in earl 2020.
Oops.
Yeah the final end goal was either to make lots of deals with local businesses (hard to scale) or to license an ML personality matching model to companies.
The app had a handful of personality questions that I copied over from research done at one of the Nordic universities (I forget which one) on what makes people get along together in a casual setting. The American universities have mostly done research on group cohesion in corporate settings, which maybe hints at what is wrong with American society at large!
Cruise liners and casinos would pay a fortune to know what guests would vibe together.
I had a partner website that allowed for self onboarding, but of course b2b2c is never that simple. :)
The operating costs were so absurdly low (~$200 a month per city it was running in) that letting people create their own events for free was in the near term road map, no reason not to.
Are they? I thought hookup sites like Tinder and Grindr were very popular.
Always get paid upfront. Net-anything just gives others time to find a way to cheat you.
If you don't constantly redesign your site or feel compelled to use the most expensive hosting possible, or cosplay as google it doesn't even have to be that expensive. A single actual physical computer could serve a hell of a lot of people for a modest amount of money. The $20 OK cupid charges per user could trivially pay for the oh so complicated task of allowing people to find and message like minded users.
A doctor doesn't need to work around the market economics of not making people sick so you can cure them they have agency they can choose just to be a good doctor and most of them do.
Companies hollow out (or enshittify) their products because it is easy and because it guarantees results at least in the short term. There are other ways to grow, and they tend to require imagination and long-term planning. Don't blame the stock market for entirely voluntary choices of taking the easy way out.
[1]: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2014/03/at-apple-shareholder...
Sure, but VCs and big companies want to maximize profit, not just be profitable. When a profitable startup sells out, that's the founders also saying "profitable isn't enough for me".
Or just "I'm done with this shit". It's remarkably difficult to run a small (software) business in the US. Section 174, multi-state income tax filings. It's a bloody pain if your goal is not just to operate the business and be overhead, but to actually do stuff. Regulatory/tax complexity thresholds depending on business size would be a welcome improvement.
So yes, it have to work, at least for their reputation, but it also have to not work that much.
A casino with no physical upkeep ?
And if it succeeds in getting people to match, they definitely stop using it.
"Likely to stop using it" is the better outcome for them in terms of customer retention
The logic goes for a lot of service type situations like auto-repair post-warranty period.
An anecdote: Ads like "your dentist hates this simple trick" don't work at all in a single-payer system. People are just baffled as to why a doctor wouldn't want you to be healthy!
Though I'm not optimistic about either its ability to fund healthcare or assess its quality.
Dental problems are two fold, genetic and habitual.
There are people who brush and floss 2x a day and have miserable teeth, their personal biome and genetics have screwed them.
Then there are people like me, I skipped the dentist for 2 years and when I went the dentist said my teeth looked perfect. (Though being on a keto diet for that time might have helped, one dentist I had said keto is the perfect diet for dental health! :) )
This was in the early days of keto, back when you couldn't find any keto products at the store and it was just a small subreddit that spread by word of mouth.
I described my diet to my dentist (no carbs at all, no sugar, lots of green veggies, healthy meats and fats, all home cooked), and she instantly approved of it.
IMHO Keto has gone off the rails, no true scotsman and all of that. In the early days keto shared a lot of dietary stuff with paleo in regards to no processed ingredients, everything from scratch, and I think that made a real difference in how effective it was.
Before if I wanted keto ice cream I had to make keto ice cream. Now I can just buy it at every local grocery store. Well excess calories are still excess calories...
Also the prepackaged keto stuff isn't as satiating as from scratch keto food, and half of the benefit of keto is the food is supposed to be more satiating.
/rant
Not really. A dentist fixing your dental cavity doesn't stop you from gettinga new one in 10 years.
Sometimes you don't even need that.
If you ever want to feel depressed, go to your city's subreddit and search for "what business will you never go to again?" I remember one popped up on my city's sub recently, and it made me incredibly thankful for my dentist. The sheer amount of shit some get away with (while having ritzy offices in expensive neighborhoods) is incredible. And sure, such a thread is bound to attract people who have had negative experiences, but the sheer quantity of complaints some places had (with nobody chiming in to defend them or say something to the effect of "I've never had any problems like that") spoke for itself.
The more you commit to, the more priority the algorithm gives you as it wants you to get married asap.
This could be easily gamed as the users could just commit to absurdly high amounts and never get married - while getting prioritized by the site.
Seeing as I have a "face for radio", I doubt I would ever manage to date seriously on "swipe right/left" platforms.
This wasn't necessarily true. I actually met my wife on OkCupid, all the way back in 2007 originally, and she wasn't even the first long-term relationship I ended up off of the site, which was back in 2004. OkCupid used to have social features, allowing you to maintain a personal blog and follow other user's blogs. A whole lot of us had a pretty nice community, couchsurfing, visiting each other when we traveled for work. That was even how I met my wife, through the blogs, not by direct solicitation of a date. We didn't even live on the same coast when we met, but eventually moved to the same city by chance and ended up together.
When Match Group bought the site, they killed these features and there was no longer any reason to stick around, but a lot of us had stuck around long after pairing off and marrying. For a long time, we even stayed in touch via other means and continued meeting up in person when we had the chance. Unfortunately, Facebook was the main place they all settled, and I did not want to stick around on Facebook, so mostly I've lost touch with these people now. But we had a nice community for a long time, even a nearly global community, with people in the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Australia.
Heck, even the reason I originally joined OkCupid wasn't with the intention of finding dates. It was because of an old vBulletin forum I was on for Armenians in Los Angeles where a bunch of people took the personality tests and compared results, so I joined to do that. But things were different enough in 2004 that I didn't need to seek out dates. Women just messaged me and asked me out because they weren't yet overloaded with spam and jaded from the Internet turning to shit.
The Internet was different in a lot of ways back then. OkCupid was founded by nerd grad students that mostly wanted to prove they could apply math to romance. But then they discovered math could actually make them rich, and Match Group never gave a shit and only cared about money from the start. I suspect much of what eventually became shit started that way. Larry and Sergey were probably legitimate math nerds, too. Mark Zuckerberg probably just wanted to hot-or-not his classmates. But then they all discovered they could get rich and investors killed the fun.
Maybe a dating site actually would make for a good social service... Assuming that what we'd gain in terms of the stability and happiness of the population is worth more than what it would cost to run the service it might not be a bad idea. Especially in areas where dating is uniquely difficult like Iceland where apps exist to make sure you're not dating someone closely related.
I guess more anti-trust in tech would probably be good, but the reality of network effects & the advertising economy mean it's actually nontrivial for government to intervene in a way that's clearly net good for users. Google has gifted the world amazing free-to-use software that gives me probably thousands of dollars of consumer surplus yearly. Had OKCupid stayed separate they might have had to tinderify anyways just to survive. Same with YouTube and Instagram had they not been acquired.
If I had to point my way to a solution it would be something at the protocol or operating system level. Apple, for example, mostly doesn't make money from ads and could set up their OS in a way that makes apps compete to satisfy user intentions rather than hijack their attention.
I never used them but I did read their blog and my sense is that they leaned a bit towards that demographic anyway.
As I wrote elsewhere, a lot of people jump to the conclusion that a company was ruined by a buyer or that a company let themselves stagnate. But I'd argue (agree?) it's often the case that the "marginal user" (or mainstream audience) have no real interest in what appealed to the early adopters.
And the early adopters may have moved on as well. I was pretty into eBay as an auction site at one point and I mostly lost interest.
Nobody uses Google because they have to, they use it because it is the best.
DuckDuckGo and Yahoo both use Bing's search index. (Which sucks whenever Bing randomly removes your website for no reason.)
Brave Search is a very recent addition, just within the past year or two.
Oh yeah, you sure its not because its the default browser on Android ?
If Google Search, as the default search engine of Android, wasn't good enough, nobody would use it.
I recently helped a group look at launching a dating app over a six month period. Here are a few take aways:
1. Nobody really likes the dating app experience. Most users have a few dating apps installed at any given time.
2. Therefore, it's relatively easy to break into the market. You start with a single geography and a single niche, and use marketing to gain a pre-launch group of a few thousand individuals.
3. The MRR is not great, and churn is around 2 months. Therefore, it's a hard market to scale into effectively without a lot of money.
4. Beyond the financials, the ethics are interesting. You're either selling your users to advertisers, or you're you're nickel-and-diming your users for low-value features.
Ultimately the group we were involved with decided to invest their money and time into other projects.
That all said: Match.com has a monopoly because most startups want a quick exit, and not actually solve the core problems. If someone like Facebook really wanted to enter the market and win, they could crush Match.com, IMHO. (Not saying that would be a good thing, just pointing out it's possible.)
https://andrewchen.com/why-investors-dont-fund-dating/
and the HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9606572
Its an article about the negative impact of catering to every use case. Not about why OKcupid sucks. Which makes your comment rather off topic.
https://old.reddit.com/r/LokiList/comments/s0a0w6/why_i_made...
Also:
> we took pairs of bad matches (actual 30% match) and told them they were exceptionally good for each other (displaying a 90% match.)
the first company that can make a phone that can run android apps in a virtual machine and otherwise be a glorified electron app server (run javascript/webasm apps only) will clean up. If they make it possible to upgrade the components (m.2 storage, sodimm memory, socketed SoC), even if you have to take it to a store to upgrade - they'll win the entire market.
The effect of buying and closing innovative potential competitors?
Product design distortion due to companies being valued by unreal factors, so most of the market is acting on partly false data (raw MAU rather than sophisticated analysis of likely actually meaningful paying DAU)
Actual errors due to not measuring user sentiment: failing to build long term value since the life cycle of users from new-> user-> advocate -> generational aligned customer is not understood at all. In this thesis, most companies profit model is just wrong on long term time scales. They're actually burning the goodwill of potential dedicated customers in return for flat growth and revenue. This is Google to me; they have no way to detect that I've gone from loving to hating their products over the last ten years, since I spend as much as ever. But I'm looking for any way to jump to another product.
In the end I still don't know. Am I just wrong that Google isn't suffering from me hating them? It feels so true that if they respected power users more it would be so beneficial to them, but in a hard to measure way. Recruiting, advocacy, lobbying, let alone bug fixes, wanting to work there. It could be that the hate they receive doesn't hurt them. But I think a certain type of person will always exist, who wants to love and respect the groups they're associated with, beyond just realized profit. I would jump at the chance to associate with a company which makes 50% as much money as google, but which I can still admire and feel aligned with. And long term it seems people will try to form societies and economies where companies can be viewed as actually aligned. So day to day google does fine, but maybe they're not pricing in the rare negative effects of existing in a less loved state?
No, I think you're right that Google is suffering in the long term. It's a combination of measurement difficulty and agency problems - there's no way for the VP of the product to get a credible signal about whether a change was good or not other than by looking at something incontrovertible like DAUs. You might try to introduce a metric like "user happiness" but the design space of such metrics is so large that a misaligned product manager could always use it to shove a bad change through.
Kind of like we all know GDP is a bad metric for human flourishing, but everything else feels even worse.
From Nir Eyal, author of "Hooked:"
Here, companies leverage two pulleys of human behavior – motivation and ability. To increase the odds of a user taking the intended action, the behavior designer makes the action as easy as possible, while simultaneously boosting the user’s motivation.
[...]
Bizarrely, we perceive this trance-like state as fun. This is because our brains are wired to search endlessly for the next reward, never satisfied. Recent neuroscience has revealed that our dopamine system works not to provide us with rewards for our efforts, but to keep us searching by inducing a semi-stressful response we call desire.
Our understanding of how to create systems is primitive. Our understanding how to effectively maintain and refine them over time is broadly speaking non-existent. Collapse and destruction is not inevitable, it's plan B when the entity in question cannot maintain its own constitution. Our companies, products, cultures, nations, civilizations don't know how to do that. So they keep collapsing and get replaced.
It's massively wasteful, it causes endless pain and suffering, immense waste, it's the tragedy of our existence. And the hope is we'll learn eventually, before our entire species collapses. But so far I don't see it. We keep making the same mistakes over and over, but faster and faster, at higher and higher scale. That light at the end of the tunnel is not what you think it is.
"Growth" is the culprit. "What if we just acted like the successful restaurant: packed every night, very profitable, solid employment for my kids?"
Nah. We have to keep growing.
1. It's easy enough for a lone entrepreneur with no investors to make principled long-term decisions. It's not so trivial when you owe a fiduciary duty to a board of venture capitalists.
2. Your team of engineers (which has grown steadily as you've scaled up) have built The Thing and everyone loves it. Now what? You only need 5% of the team to maintain the software. You could fire 95% of the team, which will make your company mighty unpopular to future hires, and moreover your best developers won't want to stay and do maintenance for the next decade. Easier to have them work on gratuitous frontend redesigns, bloated features that increase engagement metrics, etc. In a restaurant the contractors who build and furnish the place aren't your employees.
I once asked someone this question and he replied with a single word. "Greed", he said.
I wanted the opinion of someone who was not biased, i.e., who did not believe, AKAIK, that, as stated by the author of this blog post, "software is getting worse".
This person was longtime shareholder in one of the companies that engages in what's being described here and their success has been his success.
If anything, I thought, he should be biased in favour of "modern" software not against it.
(Another reason why free software is essential.)
>Match Group is an American internet and technology company headquartered in Dallas, Texas. It owns and operates the largest global portfolio of popular online dating services including Tinder, Match.com, Meetic, OkCupid, Hinge, Plenty of Fish, OurTime, and other dating global brands.
I can't even name another dating site.
It's all about controlling the users as a controlled user base is more easily exploited for profit. First corral the sheep so that they can be more efficiently fleeced, that's the mentality of the executive suite.
It's the dev managers that pursue him. In the quest for quarterly metrics.
Building a use base of interested committed users is not done that way. It's done by providing value, having short training videos, getting word-of-mouth referrals, continuing to provide value month after month.
Ok that isn't maybe as profitable. In a big company the pressure for profitable is perhaps even more grinding and inhumane than in a smaller company. At some point your entire product gets reduced to a number at some executive level, and your fate is inevitably sealed by metrics.
In a small company, a startup even, management is 1 level deep or shallower and you can have goal, ambitions, a vision of your product and your user that exceeds "show them another ad". And you can communicate that to whomever is budgeting your group.
The whole point is that you're not supposed to find anybody but keep looking because if you find somebody you're no longer a customer. Match buys every dating site that gets even 2% of traction because they can't stand the possibility that somebody makes a dating site that works and destroys their customer pool.
If the government was serious about antitrust they'd break up match.com
Now it's a major endeavor to find 'that setting' and how to interpret the meaning of 'that setting'. i often need to google for it, and then it may turn out that the info found on 'the internet' is already outdated (especially true with this shiny Mac thing)
i suspect that UI design turned to postmodernism, now there is 'no one right way' to do things, in other words: things are messy.
This mess was likely inevitable with the advent of the Web and later the mobile UI. Now you have both these native apps, and the web apps - and you can't have everything subject to the same guidelines. So the answer is: get rid of the guidelines.
Also you got devices with a big screen and devices with a small screen, who wins? Now that's an easy one: the most common denominator. So I guess that user interfaces are being dumbed down due to a combination of both business and technical factors.
Another factor is imitation: nowadays TikTok is king, so everyone is trying to be like them - regardless if a model like this is appropriate or not.
One way to break it down is different users, but as Ivan notes towards the end, we all have Marl in us. So, another way to get at the same thing is to exclude certain engagements from the metrics — the things we click on but would not reflectively endorse as meaningful. You get a lower engagement number that represents meaningful choice, rather than just "revealed preference" / engagement.
This is what I work to align LLMs with at the Institute for Meaning Alignment[1], and Ivan is helping! I also have a paper[2] on the difference between revealed preference and meaningful choice.
(It's also worth noting that this process of enshittification doesn't just happen in software. Markets and voting also have this revealed preference vs meaningful choice problem. So, making this distinction is a chance to upgrade all of our large-scale systems.)
[1] https://meaningalignment.org/ [2] https://github.com/jxe/vpm/blob/master/vpm.pdf
When all that counts is gaining that N+1'th user, there's a strong incentive to pile on one-off features and special cases to ensure that every potential new user has a tailor-made first experience to hook them in. Facebook and Uber both lean heavily into this, for example.
<https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://old.redd...>
In terms of impacts on software / application complexity, capability, and suitability to the needs and interests of advanced users, I feel somewhat similarly. I do take exception however with the notion that serving the needs of the much larger set people with less-advanced skills or interests is necessarily bad. In general I do support the effort of expanding access to computers and digital technologies.
A large part of the degredation Vendrov describes is less an element of the people using these tools as it is the financial and economic incentives of the entities providing them, encapsulated in Cory Doctorow's ever-more-widely-known term enshittification. That's driven by the dynamics of winner-take-all monopolies, advertising, surveillance capitalism, and the inherent challenges of monetising information goods.
What I would very much like to see, though, is a world in which both general and advanced-skills access are available and supported. A general characteristic and problem of media and information goods, going back to the advent of printing, is that popular tends to equate to degraded quality. This shows up in other products and services as well, though I'd argue it's most pernicious with information and media.
I’ve seen B-corps - those seem good, social/environmental focussed. No idea how widespread they are.
Are there other corporate structure models that could become mainstream and solve some of these issues? At least for the companies adopting them and therefore customers signed up to them.
Veering too deeply into pure capital acquisition will destroy capital though. A zombied out, addicted and unhealthy population isn't a source of capital. Ad revenue and demand plummets as nobody has the money or will to buy shit. But there's a tragedy of the commons situation where everyone passes the buck to some abstract "other" who will work on keeping society healthy.
Traditionally, government is the balancing force that puts limits on capitalism and makes sure some profits are re-invested into society. But when top capital holders become political power brokers, government power recedes.
I think the best hope is a new vision where young generations are intrinsically motivated to build a healthy society, and not just to push private capital acquisition as far as it can go.
I wanted an app, that has the question and answer capabilities of OkC, to get to know a person, without actually having to type anything. It would have filters for partners or personalities. It can have more provocative questions to get the users desires, morals and values. It would be a blind date sort of deal, to prevent it becoming a beauty contest. Meeting in-person would be the main goal, with safety in mind of course. Dating would not be the main point of the app, meeting people would be, doing activities together and such.
It would have a public dashboard of users, like ratio of M:F. I would love the return of the OkC blogs too.
In terms of scaling, I don't care about infinite growth, it would be like a B-Corp with a sustainable growth model. The monetisation could be a 3-6 month full-feature subscription. If it didn't work out, the user could just move on. The other worse option would be ads. The app could be open-sourced or a freemium model, I am not sure about the feasibility.
After going through the comments here, it seems @com2kid had already made something similar but I have some ideas to make it better. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37512127
Would love to know what he had learnt from working on that project!
If the pendulum swings the other way - meaning we each have less Marl moments - more of us willing to pay for an experience with dollars than time, then expect more OKCupids to start and to persist. Theoretically without venture money.
I think LLMs may help swing the pendulum in the OkCupid direction but in two very different ways - curious how others see it.
1. Lots more Marl courting apps developed, faster. Causing more fatigue. Less time to go to any single Marl app; reluctance to try new ones. Push pendulum away from Marl apps - each of us cuts our Marl moments.
2. Ability to develop OkCupid apps with less investment and target smaller circles (which often means i can deliver a better experience to that small circle, and not need VC funding/geometric growth to keep the lights on). Pull pendulum towards OKCupid apps.
> The busy man only has 48 hours to spare to learn JavaScript. The busy only has 24 hours to get more friends on your new social network. Only has 12 hours to decide which shoe to buy. Only has 10 minutes to wait for that email. Only has 2 minutes to read that long article you wrote. Only has 30 seconds to know what your product does. Only 8 seconds to register on your website. The busy man has only 2 seconds to spare to like your website.
[1]: https://idiallo.com/blog/the-busy-man (2015)
Whenever you introduce convenience into the world, you reprogram people. You create the short attention span and passiveness.
Unfortunately gmail has fallen off pretty hard lately. I can't even reliably expect my attachments to actually send the past few weeks.
You can still configure some combination of mutt, offlineimap, sendmail, etc to work with gmail and view your emails locally in a proper viewer.
Or use thunderbird I guess, though thunderbird feels pretty "marginal user" focused compared to mutt.
The reality is, your core user base is always your easy-to-get captive market that intrinsically want what you do. A corollary of that is that gradient towards more users is always going to be eating into people more at the fringe or even totally outside the core intent of your product or service. So intrinsically, optimising for them is very unlikely to be optimising for your core users.
We can believe a fairy tale where we tell ourselves that we can optimise for new users while still maintaining equal service for existing users, but it's really just a fairy tale - invariably these things end up in competition with each other.
When services are dumbed down in ways that chase off power users, they're explicitly optimizing for users that churn rapidly. After all, today's new user is either a customer and tomorrow's power user, or they've stopped using the the product.
If you're trying to raise a round, and the VC blindly looks at user count, then I guess this makes sense, but I'd bet VC funds that use onboarding rates (to the exclusion of churn and sustainability of the offering) have lower average returns than ones that apply basic common sense when vetting their investments.
> Google Search itself, has decayed to the point of being unusable for complicated queries. Reddit and Craigslist remain incredibly useful and valuable precisely because their software remains frozen in time
I was contemplating the truth of this, and thinking about how much of the internet's wealth of useful content gets overshadowed by nonsense and UI antipatterns. It was right at this moment that I continued reading and scrolled down and the stuff I was trying to read got greyed out and replaced by one of those annoying popups about something or other before I could finish reading the article. Oh the irony...
Another is the metrics. OkCupid tried to focus on “three ways”, which was a message, a reply, and a reply to the reply. That’s just enough communication to make a date for Marl. If we had focused on users who had a better-than-marginal experience, it might have preserved the features this author liked.
But, really, a different business model makes a big difference.
Broadly one segment is the superficial, reptilian brain, one, which are the vast majority of the population. They will crave quick, non-complex, interactions, in order to get quick and easy rewards (dopamine).
The other would be neocortex segment, much smaller base, that would actually seek seek more rational, or deeply emotional, long term results that they see as more fulfilling in the long run.
They are obviously not all different people, as we all have both brains, but we always start our experiences with the reptilian brain and only some of us move towards the neocortex phase when experiencing things.
I think if more services and products took that into consideration, they would have a strategy to move those people along this journey and would have both the reptilian base so needed for growth, but also the neocortex folks needed for long-lasting client relationship.
making accessible things is actually good. not sure how that "dumbification of software for the marginal user" really aligns with what happens with apps. sometimes things don't get "dumber", or "simpler", or "easier to get even for the most basic of users". sometimes things just get worse. or get more complicated, internally (to exploit that user) or externally (dark patterns). simplification is really not the reason nor the 'evil thing-ruining machine' running behind the 'worsening of everything'. it might be the myriad of business processes, including a/b testing and orienting on whatever metrics analytics spit out, but like, despite almost pointing to that, this still diverts to 'things get simplified for the sake of the user' (boo hoo cutting features removing buttons). sure. but that's not the problem. the problem is the process that leads to, not just 'simplification' but whatever changes that happen.
>nearly all popular consumer software
is it really?
The article is a good example; nobody wants to spend too much time creating a long blog post. So, a short text and a catchy title work better to attract your audience. For me, software is about products like an operating system or an editor; for the author, "software" is about websites like Google or Reddit. It's not the same. The incentives are different, but making a distinction requires more analysis, an analysis that Marl will not read. Marl will complain that macOS quality seems lower on each release without realizing the article is about something different.
Most people reading HN work in the software industry. In one way or another, we are also responsible for creating Marl. That's why having a better education in social topics should be an essential part of any engineering curriculum.
What exists of OKC now is a "free" system which is utterly useless. You simply must pay to do anything that might result in a date.
This problem isn't the marginal user. The problem is the ever-growing marketing push to dangle "FREE" in front of people to lure them in, when of course there is cost later. In the case of OKC, the cost is your time at first. Then eventually you may pay (what is frankly an exhorbitant rate per month) just to be able to communicate with anyone.
Back to the point though. Think of all the garbage free apps for phones. Think of all the absurd games they play to trick or goad you into paying. That whole process IS the experience moreso than whatever the theoretical purpose of the app was. Instead of the old concept of "here's what we offer, and here's what it costs to get", we have this current state of the world.
There is a solution to all this: sell your product from day one. Do the traditional show and tell marketing to illustrate your product's value so you might gain customers. This is far better than the (VC?) approach of gathering users at a big loss and then figuring out how to monetize them. As we know, some of the monetization methods are evil...
What happened to OKCupid is typical. Founders envision the best scenarios for their users, and build a business around that product. User satisfaction drives their success.
Corporations aren't really good at that. So they need someone to override mindless acts of profiteering in favor of a better future. Someone with a vision, but also the power to enforce it. But they also have to be right.
My personal project, https://golfcourse.wiki is basically founded on my attempt to stop Marl from making golf-on-the-internet shitty.
My religion is basically that Wikipedia is the only website that I don't hate after 20 years of internet growth, so that's my model. I've attempted to do this by having nearly no expectations for the site for 5 years (we are in late-year 2, with a year of causal development before that). I do this by running on the thinnest budget I possibly can. There is no handy interface (yet), if you want to add your course, it isn't too hard, but it isn't too easy. The site is ugly simplicity.
Anyone who doesn't understand or care that I'm trying to build a database to then give it away for free will tell me the site sucks, and they're not wrong. It sucks because I am not paying for the data, so I don't have to charge for it. Still, I'm slowly-but-surely growing my google imprint, and increasing my (consumptive) user base.
Anyone who has spent the time to add to the project I'm extremely thankful for. I will never focus on Marl, because the consumption side of the site is not the target audience for me, it's the contribution side. It's a hobby, and at a few dozen dollars a month to operate, if the side doesn't snowball, it's no big loss.
The problem though is that it’s relatively easy to game the metrics, especially in short term hence the popular sport is to pump the metric, get promotion and move on to a different project before the negative consequences are evident.
Eg if your metric is conversion you can exploit it in lots of really dark ways
In even bigger companies like google it’s possible to repeat this action many times and the result is obvious. You can see how this could work with acquired products - of course the first changes will be to bring them to Xcorp scale, stack or standards which can mean years without new features
It works completely differently with hobby projects because of different incentives. I’m 100% sure that the best things in the world are created when their authors do them just for the sake it using their vision.
Unfortunately you cannot really grind in this way. So if you have to implement a login using 100 different auth systems, the approach should be different
Mature products often focus on user retention and resurrection even more than attracting new users. Even VCs of early stage startups constantly keep asking about retention and stickiness as better metrics than new users.
As I am now working on a brand new product [1], I talk daily to potential and early users and observe the short attention spans all the time. These are smart people with college degrees. But the ever increasing amounts of information hitting every person on a daily basis leads to shorter and shorter attention spans of everybody, not just a “marginal” user. If anything, first users provide less attention to new products than later users for well-established brands.
IMO it was just a bad example because users will always stop using such an app hence it is natural to focus on new users more from the business side. You could equally say that the demise of okcupid happened purely because the newer generation of users had other expectations compared to the prior users, the model could not sustain itself without significant changes and the changes were not significant enough. Correlation is not a causation in other words.
This reminds me of Jonathan Blow’s presentation about the collapse of our civilization: https://youtu.be/ZSRHeXYDLko?si=0HZJzEvIYqIlmPqe
Whoever acts as the product manager or manager for UX needs to concurrently field input from users as signals rather than directly actionable feedback AND not be so self-absorbed with coding, grand feature plans, or what they "want" that they cannot prioritize use-cases of users in the real world (e.g., user-centric agile-ish development).
Another issue is that popular apps backed by major corporations tend to drift away from their roots because their developers and product managers tend to be rewarded for features and appearances of work than steady consistency and usability rather than fixing bugs, maintaining what already exists, or improving bad UX.
The Tyranny of the Majority [1] for instance is a well-known phrase that when applied to markets succinctly describes the tendency to blandness and conformity as once-niche products remove bit by bit the original and distinguishing features that made them marginally successful.
The hypothetical user described is just a representation of short-attention spans; the mix of concepts apparently adding to the author's confusion here.
That was part of what made OkCupid amazing: It wasn’t even always similarity. You could answer a Question with A, want your match to answer with B or C, and assign how important that answer is.
This level of "complexity" seems unthinkable in modern apps.
I, too, met my wife on OkCupid around 2014, we both had over 1000 questions answered. Luckily, you could also get matches outside your area, she was on another continent ;)
Another thing I realized is that as an average looking, slightly overweight guy, you could easily get replies from "rarely replies" women by actually reading their profile and writing more than one sentence without being an asshole.
Sadly, the mobilification mindset even sometimes impacts desktop-first applications, what few remain. The attack vector of choice is Electron hosting a mobile-first web app with a middling desktop breakpoint.
Ultimately, the author captures the same phenomenon, but I personally think it traces more specifically to the rise of mobile devices.
The other problem is that David Foster Wallace said over a decade ago:
“As VR pornography becomes a reality, we will have to develop some real machinery inside our guts to turn off pure unalloyed pleasure,”
the implication for dating apps in particular, but I fear this extends more generally, is that a major part of dating, physical interaction, has been replaced with mediated experience for a significant part of the population.
The question that arises is whether a better alternative exists in the real world absent technology?
I tried OkCupid for several months in 2013 without much success. Then I tried Tinder for a few months the same year and met my wife. Very different experience from the author of the article.
It doesn't need to satisfy its viewers a lot. It just needs to satisfy N users enough that they don't switch to another channel, and use their "brain availability time" (to use the words of TF1's former CEO) with them instead. This creates zero incentive to produce good content; only addictive, low cost, shitty content that many people will choose.
I did?
I mean, you can meet a significant other or friend in any kind of place. I kind of get what the author is trying to say but it's ill phrased.
It's too bad, because there was some amazing product creativity going on in the past, and the future really did seem bright. But I feel not that we missed out on an imagined future, but that we are actually going backwards - thanks to enshittification and this perverse incentive structure.
This can only be solved by company owners caring more about the usefulness of their product than about profit maximization. Being merely profitable should be fine. Being profitable should be a vehicle for creating and maintaining a good product, and not the other way around.
This also means that metrics like DAU and automated methods like A/B testing are no substitute for having good judgement, listening to users, and doing in-person usability studies.
It applies to everything. God-awful frontend build pipelines. Everyone feeling the pressure for their regular old database to not make the cut. Sprawling, labyrinthine legal rules no one can follow because one weasel in one meeting was able to say "but what about..."
The only app, to my goldfish-like limited knowledge, which always delivers.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37490300
That PMF is never done, and you are just chipping away at more and more market segments. There's no negative feedback for people to think that they're done with a market and they're starting to squeeze blood from rocks.
Marl is the user, and Marl is the product. There is another side to this: businesses trying to reach out to people in their Marl-state.
It's really sad that all software has become like the article states...
They are the real scourge of our industry; I never met one who wasnt hellbent on raising some kind of meaningless number that people who don’t talk to the customer decided was important for the next 90 days.
Get them out of the industry as fast as possible, keep only the good ones
I've never used any dating app or Web site... but plenty of people appear to have done just that.
Sometime during Covid I was in a massive supermarket that was nearly empty. I was in the deodorant aisle trying to choose from the approximately 100 brand and scent options. I wanted a deodorant without aluminum because I had read online that aluminum in deodorant causes yellow stains. This used to be hard, only one or two brands used to specialize in that. But on that day, my usual brand had a "new forumula!" that included aluminum. While looking at the packaging I realized the brand had been bought by one of the big boys, like a Unilever, Johnson&Johnson, whatever.
I scanned the new ingredient list of the product and then scanned the wall of 100+ brands and scents in front of me. I started picking a few at random and taking a look at their ingredients lists. Every single one was the same. I mean, they have brand names that are distinct, color schemes that are distinct, scents that are distinct. But it was a total illusion of choice. Those 100 options were really just 1 option. The only differentiator between them was packaging and scent.
I had a moment. The bright lights of the environment. The decor of the supermarket. The just audible music. When I squinted my eyes even the packaging of all of the brands blended into a single object. The entire environment was perfectly tuned to keep me unaware at the illusion of choice.
A few weeks later, basically the next time I went to buy deodorant, I noticed that several of the standard brands now offered a new choice, boldly printed on the deodorant caps: "Aluminum Free!". Apparently I am as easily understood and marketed to as anyone.
What I mean to say, the supermarket is just as tuned to make you Marl. 99.9% of the time I don't read the ingredient list of the products I buy. Whoever designs these environments knows this. They don't want to compete on actual differentiators. They want to lull your brain into a sleep and then present you with the one precise differentiator you care about. In my case, it was aluminum. When they realized that small no-name brands were succeeding by solving a problem the big brands created, they just bought them out and then re-packaged their existing products to highlight the differentiator.
In that moment I saw it all. How we are turning ourselves into robots. How I was not immune. In my humble opinion, tech brands are behind the curve on this one. Consumer product brands have been mining this space for decades, probably centuries.
This is why interoperability should be mandated, then you are not locked in and they have to care!
You either die as a cool edgy app/platform or you live long enough to face the innovators dilemma.
Surprisingly, I think its a good thing on balance. It creates room for disruption from newcomers.
Both at IC and exec level; the new people coming in are more likely to just be good general operators. Plus the CEO and leadership gets tired or retire.
Political party stances are the local maxima of AB testing talking points to their userbase around engagement.
This is an incredibly useful and healthy way of thinking. I think this is how we fight the actor-observer bias in practice.
"Marl" is an interesting angle on it.
Sure, Capitalism always devours it, but by then the party has moved on somewhere new.
Marginals know how to find each other. By the books we read. By the fact that we're the only ones not staring at phones in public. Spotting another vaguely attractive person with a dumb phone or interesting book is good enough reason to strike up a conversation.
Oh, and in case you we're feeling all "mainstream"... Hacker News? WaaaaaaaaaaaaY out marginal! We're practically on another planet here ;)
1. People are already effectively segregated by similarity in their real and online lives, and a dating app does them a disservice by doubling down on this.
2. Difference is an essential part of relationships. How many successful relationships do you know of where one person is spontaneous but liable to do foolish things, and the other person is steady and reliable but maybe a bit boring if left to themselves? Or where one person is an introvert but loves to cook for people and the other person is an extrovert who loves to throw parties?
3. People who try to get to know each other online are often surprised (and disappointed) when they meet in person. Online, you can only get very, very rough indicators of in-person romantic capability, no matter how much time and detail you have to work with. A month of getting to "know" someone online is worth less than five minutes of in-person conversation.
If you agree with these things, why in the world would you use any dating app whose basic premise runs contrary to them?
Tinder was accidental genius. A simplistic swipe left / swipe right app does exactly what you want. You show up knowing you don't know anything about the person, but vaguely excited. It's like glimpsing somebody from across the room and walking over to talk to them, except it's not just for people who enjoy spending time in crowded rooms striking up conversations with strangers who might not be interested in them.
People bag on Tinder because it's superficial. Tinder is genius because it's superficial. It sticks to the only thing that any dating app has ever been good at, and it leaves everything else in human hands. That's why dating apps are converging on the Tinder model. When apps stop doing what apps are terrible at, and stick to what apps can actually help with, there's very little left, but it's extremely useful.
Just like smoking or sugar.
I happen to have quite a long attention span on acid I'll have you know!
There was definitely a time when the name of the game in tech, was expanding the user base. Right now it feels like everyone is trying their hardest to increase their per user revenue or as companies would put it, capture more of the value they generate.
One might think, that this could actually have its upsides. Companies increasing the value to their existing users to entice them to pay more, but by and large this isn't what I'm seeing. Instead it feels like many are instead putting existing features behind higher paywalls, churning out junk content, particularly in games as well as adding the buzzword of the year, e.g. NFT, metaverse, AI.
Sounds familiar: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/
Capitalism.
It’s capitalism.
When I studied cognitive science, the method we employed for HCI was User Centered System Design. Granted, this was a backronym for UCSD, but the point remains — design should be user-centered, not metrics-driven.
When I launch Netflix, it is abundantly clear to me that their design is driven by their metrics. What I want to see at the top is my “continue watching” shows — 99% of the time I just want to watch the next episode of a show that I’m already watching. Instead, they show me row upon row of shows that I have never watched. Their metrics prove to them that getting me hooked on new shows will increase my engagement and increase the amount of time I spend in their app. Guess what? As a user, those are not my goals! Their UI is effectively one big advertisement for Netflix itself. Wonderful.
Unfortunately, virtually all tech companies have accepted metrics-driven design as conventional wisdom at this point. Run an A/B test and see which button treatment performs better, based on the metrics the company cares about — not what the user cares about.
One outlier here is Apple. They do not design based on experiments and metrics. And the Apple TV app does in fact display the shows I am already watching as the top row. Go figure.
From the company’s point of view, they actually are doing the right thing. They’re making money (which, I’d argue, is ultimately a good thing for everyone involved).
Netflix and Apple are no different, the goal is always $$, Apple just sells different things.
If users were pickier about what they consume things would probably be better - that's also an issue (and I admit I am part of the problem). I can't even remember the last time I saw a close friend's post on my feed.
It’s probably because they aren’t on Facebook any more.
I hope more of you start doing the same. There is value in a Facebook type private place to communicate with friends and family (this need not be facebook, but that is where my friends are), and everything else clutters it. The more people who follow similar rules to me the more likely Facebook is to notice in their metrics that people only want Facebook for personal friends, hopefully they adjust to enable that better.
Long term you is less valuable than short term you.
A brilliant essay.
I’ve been waiting for the day when we wake up and realize how cynical and impersonal the world of A/B testing is and consumers insist on better treatment.
And often the metrics can be counter productive in the long term, but by then people have collected their bonuses, promotions or left the company.
Here is a example I encountered from few years back where Google Ads was loading slower then the search and ended up replacing the first result just when you were about to click it. https://twitter.com/gnyman/status/1257239940309622784
If it was intentional or not I don't know, but I recall that this persisted for many months before being fixed.
I think it's obvious (but maybe I'm wrong) that accidentally clicking on ads is not what google wants, long term. As that won't get any real results for the advertiser. Which in turn reduces their interest to spend. But short term I bet Google made a lot of buck on this.
Either way, maybe it's unavoidable in a capitalistic world, it's not like non-software companies were driven by a consumer happiness score before either. The reason it feels so bad is just that a lot of us have been here during the growth phase when end-user happiness is a more important metric.
But here's what I find odd about Netflix. Up until extremely recently—and even now for most customers—Netflix did not and does not display ads. Netflix makes money from subscription fees, which means they get the same amount of money whether you spend zero, 10, 50, or 100 hours per month in their app, as long as you keep paying for your subscription.
Netflix has apparently concluded that users who spend more time in their app are more likely to remain subscribed. I wonder why that is, or if Netflix is even correct. I would think that for most users, the quality of their time matters more than the quantity.
Eventually they may go like Amazon with infinite upsells and hunt for whales.
To keep these customers, you need to keep them continuously hooked on your programming.
A company starts out focused on building a great product.
Then, they reach product-market fit.
Then, they raise money.
Now, the best way for them to grow is to go upmarket. Sell to enterprises.
Unfortunately, then the resources of the company are directed to features that enterprises buyers care about, because that's the best way for the company to make more money.
The actual product stagnates.
(This does leave an opportunity for bootstrapped founders to come in and swim in the "wake" of B2B startups that built a great product, then let their product stagnate while they went upmarket. Eventually some of those bootstrappers might choose to get bigger and move upmarket themselves, and then the opportunity opens up again for new bootstrappers. Or the bootstrapper can remain niche, focused on winning users who choose the best product and who don't require enterprise features, which is a smaller market but still can be quite profitable and would be a much smaller and simpler to run business.)
Examples: Airtable (it's a great product, I still love it, but it hasn't really improved for me as an end user since about 2016), Notion, Docusign (maybe it wasn't ever a great product, I'm not sure, but it sure hasn't improved for me as a user).
Instead of going from "good to great" it unfortunately seems like many startups go from "great to good"
invalid argument => x people doing y where x is "brilliant" and y is "serving Marl". Serving Marl is not brilliant. It doesn't count to work for a FAANG company to be considered brilliant, at least by my standards and view on how time is well spend.
a) a logical fallacy is a particular pattern of invalid argument, not just an argument that is invalid. So just on like a semantic level, an individual argument can't be a fallacy, though it can commit one.
b) fallacies are invalid inferences by construction. You just don't agree with the premise in this case (and are also implicitly proposing a second premise that doing something not-brilliant means a person is not themselves brilliant)
And most importantly c) whether or not working for a FAANG company is "brilliant" is entirely a question of your opinion.
b) One is brilliant when doing brilliant things, and stupid when doing stupid things. A chainsmoker stops being a smoker until he reaches for the next cigarette.
c) yea I explicitly wrote "at least by my standards and view on how time is well spend"
Are you familiar with the fallacy fallacy?
You are saying I shouldn't describe the whole sentence as fallacy because in any case, part of it is true? I don't know that doesn't go well with writing sneering comments.
'Inclusivity' is in vogue. It's a meme (Dawkins) which is so deep into the psyches of normies today it integrates into everything. Normie is the fish and inclusivity is the water.
What I think is being left on the side lines is 'exclusivity' not in class of product, but in intended customer. "KDE 3.5 is an advanced product, it was not meant for average users like you. Go check out $LATEST_GNOME, it also comes at a more affordable price too!" Sure you're going to turn off some customers, but what you're really saying is "you're not good enough to be within the set of intended users" and I think this dynamic can drive some users into saying "nuh uh I'm not some normie goy, gimmie gimmie gimmie!"
Well that's my shitter thought away, time to flush this turd!