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And I’m sure you don’t know “anyone that still watches TV” like the old Slashdot meme.

It’s really not that hard to find statistics. It’s 2.5 - 3 years

https://www.refurb.me/blog/how-long-does-a-smartphone-last-r...

https://www.pcmag.com/news/the-2-year-mobile-phone-upgrade-c...

You said "I'd guess 99% of the population makes a phone last 2-4 years." Which is obviously false if the average is 3 years. An interesting data point neither of these articles have is the standard deviation. One of the articles says 8% of people wait more than 5 years.

I never said any such thing about “99%”

Ah sorry, I replied to the wrong comment.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com