First, they create detailed software models (usually in C++) of their chips to estimate performance as closely as they can before laying out a single transitory. These models can run code just like a real hardware device, albeit slowly.
Once the chip is designed, verilog simulators are programs used to generate the exact logical output of a circuit, which can be used to measure performance on a workload. However, this method is even slower than the first!
For larger workloads and higher speed, they use extraordinarily expensive FPGA-based platforms called Emulators. This allows circuits to be run at speeds in the MHz range before ever being sent to a fab. Booting an OS, running a complex multicore workload with shared memory, they can measure almost any workload. But this method is not available until late in the design phase and the boxes themselves are prohibitively expensive from being deployed very widely.
The software models are the most useful for estimating performance, as long as they are written early and well :)