We don't know that. Humanity exterminating AI may only need a kilowatt of compute with the right algo
Single human runs on 100W with algo and hardware optimized for more than million years. I think at some point we can do better with sand and electricity, but it's still far away.
And AI research is terrible with algos. Modern miracle GPT is plain old multilayer neural network with some forward shortcuts and some parts hard coded according to ad-hoc "attention" idea. And learning algorithm is more than half a century old. The reason GPT performs is just the RAM and compute.
We have every reason to be sceptical about AI apocalypse.
Just because 2 of the 10 chains restraining the cave troll are still intact does not mean it is time to make tea.
That makes perfect sense in 2023. Not so much in seventeen hundreds, or whenever people first started to attempting it.
> A handful of humans (a few hundred watts of compute) succeeded at devastating the world from 1939-1945.
I wouldn't really count it towards how powerful a person is. Literally billions of people amount to almost nothing their whole life. Wars were results of historical processes. People are nothing than a match under the barrel of gunpowder filled with economical and societal forces.
If there are such forces that could end us what's the difference if the match will be biological or silicon?
> Just because 2 of the 10 chains restraining the cave troll are still intact does not mean it is time to make tea.
Imagined cave troll.