Microkernels are the future
And they are, the future just hasn't arrived yet. But microkernels see more and more adoption every day. They offer a degree of reliability that is unprecedented. But they also come with a performance penalty that is for a lot of people enough of a drawback that they would rather have 'good enough' than 'perfect'.For software that needs to be 'perfect' microkernels are the way to go and in fact in the embedded world there are more microkernel varieties that you can choose from now than ever before. Once performance penalties are no longer important and people will start to demand software that does not crash with every change of the weather I believe microkernels will see another wave of increased adoption. As far as I'm concerned this can't come soon enough. Userland drivers are so much better than a monolithic kernel.
x86 will die out and RISC architectures will dominate the market
And in fact, in the mobile arena this has already come true. And the way Apple is moving I would not be surprised to see an Arm powering an Apple laptop one day. (5 years from then) everyone will be running a free GNU OS
I think both parties underestimated the strength of the windows lock-in here. And many people still underestimate the strength of this lock-in, even here on HN the demise of Microsoft is announced with some regularity.