> If you think my numbers are made up, take the effort to refute them.
So I'm required to make effort to refute numbers, but you're not required to make effort to substantiate them? Huh...
> Are you saying 9/10 people who buy a car are buying it because they got in an accident?
I never said any such thing. I just think the number is higher than 1/10.
> There were 13.7 million new cars sold in 2022. I doubt you'll find 13.7 totaled cars in 2022.
I wouldn't expect to. But I'd definitely expect the number to be over 1.37 million.
Hurricane Ian alone resulted in 400,000 vehicles damaged[1], and that was just one environmental event, before we look at collisions.
Washington State (with 2.3% of the US population) reported 104,000 collisions [2]. So we might extrapolate to somewhere in the order of 5 million collisions a year. Indeed, that number is probably closer to 6 million [3].
So we're already approaching 7 million vehicle 'incidents' a year including collisions and one 'act of god'. I think it's reasonable to set a number of 8 million when you factor in all the other tornados, hurricanes, hail storms and others.
It's hard to determine what fraction of those are total losses. However...
US insurers paid out $173B in losses. [4]
$173B across 8 million incidents is around $21,000. Now in a good number of those losses there are 2, or more vehicles involved, which increases the number some. But even if we assume that say 50% of collisions involved another vehicle, then we have an an average auto loss of $10K per vehicle per collision.
Most insurers work on a 70/75 rule for total loss, that is, if the cost to repair the vehicle exceeds 70 or 75% of its value, it is written off.
So if your collision results in "only" a $2-3K repair bill (which can be cheap these days), then you can see that there's a notable amount of payouts on total losses. (It's also hard to get a value of the average vehicle on the road in a given year - insurers are the only ones who'd likely be able to supply that information, and it would be buried somewhere in actuarial tables more than anything).
It's not 9/10. Nor did I ever say it was.
But if I had to make an estimate, I'd say it was closer to 2 or 3/10.
[1] https://www.automotive-fleet.com/10183423/carfax-estimates-h...
[2] https://www.weierlaw.com/2022-washington-state-car-accident-...
[3] https://www.simplyinsurance.com/how-many-people-die-in-car-a...
[4] https://policyadvice.net/insurance/insights/auto-insurance-s...