It seems to me that the FBI can break into iPhones now, but they want to pretend that they can’t. The FBI strategy appears to be to fake the lack of capability to break in now, in order to be able to claim that there is a crisis and get law or legal precedent in place to allow much broader access, against potentially much better future technological challenges to break-in.
I believe that, from a technical perspective, my argument is supported by this article [0] that I found posted on the ACLU website. This was a reaction to the FBI’s highly-publicized case against Apple in 2015 where the FBI, I believe, pretended that they could not break into the iPhone that had belonged to one of the shooters in the December 2015 San Bernardino attack.
The article I have linked describes a specific technical workaround for avoiding permanent deletion of data, namely, avoiding deletion in “Effaceable Storage” of a key that encrypts some filesystem data. This may or may not continue to be relevant today. A pop-up on an Apple page explaining iPhone privacy [1] specifically states that Effaceable Storage “doesn’t provide protection if an attacker has physical possession of a device”, but I don’t claim to actually understand the security implications of the statements made on that page.
0. https://www.aclu.org/news/privacy-technology/one-fbis-major-...
1. https://support.apple.com/guide/security/data-protection-sec...